Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: Ian <ianstm@shaw.ca>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] holdings
Date: Fri, 19 Apr 2002 19:59:43 -0700
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David:
Since you asked, and I've been getting numerous requests for lists, I figured I'd toss out some names for perusal. Remember that almost all of these are far extended from where they were when their quantum volume changes hit, and are not currently personal buy candidates. Please treat this as a 'proof of strong "M"', which is the context in which I threw it together:
My only significant new buy this week was AIRM, at an $8 pivot point, although I pyramided a little to some others.
But I have been watching many others that I bought earlier continue to rise:
MRGE - from a pivot around $4.80
CVGR - from a pivot at $3.35
NSYS - from pivot at $8.60
PMSI - from $6.80 pivot
PAGI - from a pivot at $18.10
FNIS - from a pivot at $14.30 (sold today on strong distribution)
USAP - from a pivot at $9.60
TENT - from a pivot at $9
Ones that I prematurely or already sold, but are still rising:
NBSC - from $6
MTEC - from $24.50 pivot
BEL - from $4 pivot, and $6.50 pivot, and $7 pivot ...
USLB - from a pivot at $9.90
DOCC - from a pivot at $4
NWRE - from a pivot at $3
ONDI - from a pivot at $8 (was recently bought out at $12)
ICTG - (from deep in the base, around $11)
QGLY - (from a pivot at $4 - just sold, appears to have peaked yesterday)
ATPX - from a pivot at $20
DFXI - (I bought it and sold it the same day, for a loss, in early November around $20. Think I sold at the bottom tick under $20 :( I have a terrible track record of selling too early for a loss when buying in the base - I am prone to costly vaccilation.)
Others - without CANSLIM charts, but rising:
FWHT - from the base at $3.25
ALOG - non-CANSLIM (but about to have massive growth) from the base in the $38-$42 range
TKCI - from the base at $10
Even issues that I consider short candidates (others might consider them solid CANSLIM stocks) are rising strongly:
CSTR
DYII
XMM (This was on my long list from a pivot at $9.25 - before the recent news)
I do also have a large list that are going nowhere, but I don't have nearly as many that are actually strongly trending down, although there are definitely some of them.
Also, if I started looking through my notes at the ones that I never purchased, but interested me, the list of rising issues would be a lot bigger -particularly the small/microcap restaurants/retailers that I tend to avoid - many of them are moving up on strong volume compared to their historical averages.
The point is that my watch lists, which are 95% culled from stocks with rising revenues and EPS, and modest valuations (issues with extraordinary upcoming growth, but non-existant current EPS like ALOG are exceptions), are littered with strongly uptrending stocks, many rangebound stocks, and far fewer that are trending down. What is CANSLIM about buying them now is this: they are all showing strong growth, and the market is clearly rewarding them for that growth. That has not always been the case for the last 25 months. It appears to be the case now. How much more evidence should I need?
Ian
PS - I realize that I am being strongly opinionated about this right now, and I apologize if it offends. But I can't help thinking that those who think we are still in a broad bear market are akin to the people who, refusing to look at tech in Oct '98 - Feb '00, thought we were in a terrible bear back then, and failed to profit from what the market was offering. I do understand that if I had tens of millions of dollars to manage, I might have a different perspective -as it would be decidedly harder to place the capital efficiently. But I do not have that problem, so it does not cloud my perspective.
- ----- Original Message -----
From: david frank
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Friday, April 19, 2002 3:57 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] holdings
i wonder what stocks you have been buying and at what pivot points? and what is CANSLIM about buying stocks now other than what you "feel"? david
----- Original Message -----
From: Ian
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Friday, April 19, 2002 4:10 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] holdings
"this is not really the time to buy stock not unless you are a gambler and get a thrill out of losing money"
My percentage of winners to losers hasn't been this high in a loooong time. After being dogged hard work since Feb 2000, I'm finally starting to feel like its getting a bit 'easier'. It feels like a strong 'M' to me. And I'm reinforced in my view when MSFT can go up on the garbage outlook they gave last night - i.e, its nice to know that I don't have to lose sleep over broad-based panic selloffs.
Ian
PS - I 'bottom-fished' PENN at $10 just 16 months ago, and sold it for a wash, saying to myself: "bottom-fishing isn't CANSLIM, bottom-fishing isn't CANSLIM", in spite of their fabulous fundamentals at the time. The change in average-daily-volume since its real breakout at around $18 last April has been impressive. That's when I "should" have bought it - I suspect the fact that I'd sold it at $10 just 4 months earlier held me back - another valid reason for not bottom-fishing: it might effect your future trades!
----- Original Message -----
From: david frank
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Friday, April 19, 2002 11:42 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] holdings
Chris, if you all kicked butt on wall street-what has happened to that group??? personally,i like PENN, although it broke out this morning at 38.80. had a flat base than small cup with great fundamentals and high industry group. that being said-this is not really the time to buy stock not unless you are a gambler and get a thrill out of losing money. for every DFXI, there are many more that you will lose a lot of money on if you don't cut your losses. david -Original Message -----
From: Vanchee1@aol.com
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Friday, April 19, 2002 11:04 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] holdings
Katherine, comments from a different angle, well put and you do make a lot of sense. I sometimes just get a little frustrated that we don't have a watch list, and we don't quickly identify breakouts to each other. Years ago I was part of another CANSLIM group and we really kick butt on wall street, we did have a watch list and we all immediately noted and discussed breakouts. I just have to realize that the dynamics with this group is different and not try to change things.
Your input is appreciated, Chris.
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<DIV><FONT size=2>David:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Since you asked, and I've been getting numerous requests for
lists, I figured I'd toss out some names for perusal. Remember that almost all
of these are far extended from where they were when their quantum volume changes
hit, and are not currently personal buy candidates. Please treat this as a
'proof of strong "M"', which is the context in which I threw it
together:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>My only significant new buy this week was AIRM, at an $8 pivot
point, although I pyramided a little to some others.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>But I have been watching many others that I bought earlier
continue to rise:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>MRGE - from a pivot around $4.80</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>CVGR - from a pivot at $3.35</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>NSYS - from pivot at $8.60</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>PMSI - from $6.80 pivot</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>PAGI - from a pivot at $18.10</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>FNIS - from a pivot at $14.30 (sold today on strong
distribution)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>USAP - from a pivot at $9.60</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>TENT - from a pivot at $9</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Ones that I prematurely or already sold, but are still rising:
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>NBSC - from $6</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>MTEC - from $24.50 pivot</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>BEL - from $4 pivot, and $6.50 pivot, and $7 pivot ...</DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>USLB - from a pivot at $9.90</FONT></DIV></DIV>
<DIV>DOCC - from a pivot at $4</DIV>
<DIV>NWRE - from a pivot at $3</DIV>
<DIV>ONDI - from a pivot at $8 (was recently bought out at $12)</DIV>
<DIV>ICTG - (from deep in the base, around $11)</DIV>
<DIV>QGLY - (from a pivot at $4 - just sold, appears to have peaked
yesterday)</DIV>
<DIV>ATPX - from a pivot at $20</DIV>
<DIV>DFXI - (I bought it and sold it the same day, for a loss, in early November
around $20. Think I sold at the bottom tick under $20 :( I have a terrible track
record of selling too early for a loss when buying in the base - I am prone to
costly vaccilation.)</DIV></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Others - without CANSLIM charts, but rising:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>FWHT - from the base at $3.25</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>ALOG - non-CANSLIM (but about to have massive growth) from the
base in the $38-$42 range</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>TKCI - from the base at $10</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Even issues that I consider short candidates (others might
consider them solid CANSLIM stocks) are rising strongly:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>CSTR</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>DYII</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>XMM (This was on my long list from a pivot at $9.25 - before
the recent news)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I do also have a large list that are going nowhere, but I
don't have nearly as many that are actually strongly trending down, although
there are definitely some of them.</FONT><FONT size=2></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> <FONT size=2></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Also, if I started looking through my notes at the ones that I
never purchased, but interested me, the list of rising issues would be a lot
bigger -particularly the small/microcap restaurants/retailers that I tend to
avoid - many of them are moving up on strong volume compared to their historical
averages.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>The point is that my watch lists, which are 95% culled from
stocks with rising revenues and EPS, and modest valuations (issues with
extraordinary upcoming growth, but non-existant current EPS like ALOG are
exceptions), are littered with strongly uptrending stocks, many rangebound
stocks, and far fewer that are trending down. What is CANSLIM about buying them
now is this: they are all showing strong growth, and the market is clearly
rewarding them for that growth. That has not always been the case for the last
25 months. It appears to be the case now. How much more evidence should I
need?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Ian</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>PS - I realize that I am being strongly opinionated about this
right now, and I apologize if it offends. But I can't help thinking that those
who think we are still in a broad bear market are akin to the people who,
refusing to look at tech in Oct '98 - Feb '00, thought we were in a
terrible bear back then, and failed to profit from what the market was offering.
I do understand that if I had tens of millions of dollars to manage, I might
have a different perspective -as it would be decidedly harder to place the
capital efficiently. But I do not have that problem, so it does not cloud my
perspective.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:camelot.homes@charter.net"
title=camelot.homes@charter.net>david frank</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"
title=canslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, April 19, 2002 3:57
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] holdings</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>i wonder what stocks you have been buying and at
what pivot points? and what is CANSLIM about buying stocks now other than what
you "feel"? david</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:ianstm@shaw.ca" title=ianstm@shaw.ca>Ian</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"
title=canslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, April 19, 2002 4:10
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] holdings</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>"this is not really the time to buy stock not unless you
are a gambler and get a thrill out of losing money"</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>My percentage of winners to losers hasn't been this high
in a loooong time. After being dogged hard work since Feb 2000, I'm finally
starting to feel like its getting a bit 'easier'. It feels like a strong 'M'
to me. And I'm reinforced in my view when MSFT can go up on the garbage
outlook they gave last night - i.e, its nice to know that I don't have to
lose sleep over broad-based panic selloffs.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Ian</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>PS - I 'bottom-fished' PENN at $10 just 16 months ago, and
sold it for a wash, saying to myself: "bottom-fishing isn't CANSLIM,
bottom-fishing isn't CANSLIM", in spite of their fabulous fundamentals at
the time. The change in average-daily-volume since its real breakout at
around $18 last April has been impressive. That's when I "should" have
bought it - I suspect the fact that I'd sold it at $10 just 4 months earlier
held me back - another valid reason for not bottom-fishing: it might effect
your future trades!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:camelot.homes@charter.net"
title=camelot.homes@charter.net>david frank</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"
title=canslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, April 19, 2002 11:42
AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] holdings</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Chris, if you all kicked butt on wall
street-what has happened to that group??? personally,i like PENN, although
it broke out this morning at 38.80. had a flat base than small cup
with great fundamentals and high industry group. that being said-this
is not really the time to buy stock not unless you are a gambler and get a
thrill out of losing money. for every DFXI, there are many more that you
will lose a lot of money on if you don't cut your losses.
david -</FONT>Original Message ----- </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:Vanchee1@aol.com"
title=Vanchee1@aol.com>Vanchee1@aol.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"
title=canslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, April 19, 2002 11:04
AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM]
holdings</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV><FONT face=arial,helvetica><FONT face="Century Gothic"
lang=0 size=2 FAMILY="SANSSERIF">Katherine, comments from a different
angle, well put and you do make a lot of sense. I sometimes just get a
little frustrated that we don't have a watch list, and we don't quickly
identify breakouts to each other. Years ago I was part of another
CANSLIM group and we really kick butt on wall street, we did have a
watch list and we all immediately noted and discussed breakouts. I just
have to realize that the dynamics with this group is different and not
try to change things.<BR><BR>Your input is appreciated, Chris.
</FONT></FONT></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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