Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: John Lessnau <jl@lessnau.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] easi
Date: Sun, 21 Apr 2002 10:46:51 -0400
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Katherine,
Once again, thanks for the detailed analysis on EASI. I'll keep an wary eye on it for educational purposes.... Also, thanks for the tip on relative timing (RT) in Vector Vest.
- ----- Original Message -----
From: Katherine Malm
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Sunday, April 21, 2002 10:26 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] easi
Hi John,
EASI's a tough chart to read. When that happens, I like to put it in perspective. Sometimes that means putting the chart itself into a longer term view, comparing it to other similar stocks, comparing it to a market, and/or comparing it to the industry/sector. This time, I had to do *all* of those to make some sense of it. See a comparison at:
http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/A&D+EASI+042102.jpg
The bottom line is that EASI has a history of more volatile moves than other similar stocks. Don't get me wrong, the betas on this group are *LOW* (EASI=(0.03), LMT=0.19, LLL=0.03, CACI=0.63) in comparison to stocks like NVDA (beta=2.23). The market is favoring low beta, low PE, small-mid cap stocks right now, so I'd say sticking to stocks like these is a good idea. However, if I pulled up 20 or 30 stocks with these characteristics, I'd be inclined to go with the stocks with better fundamentals and easier charts.
As a side note, you mentioned in your original analysis that EASI was a "top 10 stock in VV." While its VST places it in the top 10 of all stocks in the database....look out. VST is a combination of RT (relative timing-technical), RS (relative safety-past fundamental+price volatility) and RV (relative value-past profitability+future EPS & growth), with RT being weighted the highest. When a stock *begins* its move, the VST is going to be high, but it won't already be the highest in the database. Its the same idea as the IBD rankings. Once a stock has a RS of 99, it's already outperformed everything else. Key word there is *already.*
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From: John Lessnau
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Sunday, April 21, 2002 8:07 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] easi
The institutional #s at swhchrarts are way different the DGO data. DGR in the same industry also looks interesting but seem to have a string of failed breakouts after forming what looks like a c&h. I guess the key is to look for a BIG jump in volume at breakout.
----- Original Message -----
From: Mike Gibbons
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Sunday, April 21, 2002 12:43 AM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] easi
Fools rush in.....
Looking just at the chart for a moment, there could be a handle forming, but we need a couple more days for it to be confirmed. Volume is drying up nicely, but it would have been nice to see stronger volume after the last handle formed. In fact, although this stock has risen above the pivot set on 4/2, it didn't truly break out because the volume was barely above average - compare to the heavy volume on 4/1 - the previous breakout. This suggests that if the handle is completed, that any subsequent breakout may be prone to failure also (that almost goes without saying at the moment).
This stock looked like a very strong candidate prior to 4/2 based on the chart (I bought it in the handle on 3/28 and sold on 4/3 for a small profit). I would hesitate before buying it in the handle this time and would wait for a real breakout.
I ran the stock through the canslim evaluator (www.cwhcharts.com/canslim) and got different results to you - weak year-on-year growth for the last three quarters (but a very strong recent quarter perhaps reflecting increased orders since 9/11). Also institutional ownership at 71%. The stock rated a 7, but could pick up an extra point if the handle is completed and the up to down volume ratio improves.
Others in the group would be able to give a sounder analysis of the fundamentals so I won't even attempt to.
Aloha,
Mike Gibbons
Proactive Technologies, LLC
http://www.proactech.com
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of John Lessnau
Sent: Saturday, April 20, 2002 3:49 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: [CANSLIM] easi
I've been at it for over one month and still have yet to find a true CANSLIM stock. EASI (group:Elec-military Systems) is another possibility I have been watching. It looks to be in a long term cup starting October 8 and currently it seems to be trying to form a handle.
Why I like this stock:
Strong and consistent quarterly and annual growth. 26% growth rate
40% and growing institutional owner ship (13% management ownership)
Military supply company in a time of war.
Nearing the pivot point. 14% off the left side of cup high.
Top 10 rating by Vector Vest.
Low 10 million share float
So how about it? Am I getting closer to finding CANSLIM gold?
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<DIV><FONT size=2>Katherine,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Once again, thanks for the detailed analysis on EASI.
I'll keep an wary eye on it for educational purposes.... Also, thanks for
the tip on relative timing (RT) in Vector Vest. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A title=kmalm@earthlink.net href="mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine
Malm</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=canslim@lists.xmission.com
href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, April 21, 2002 10:26
AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] easi</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Hi John,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>EASI's a tough chart to read. When that happens, I like to put it in
perspective. Sometimes that means putting the chart itself into a longer term
view, comparing it to other similar stocks, comparing it to a market, and/or
comparing it to the industry/sector. This time, I had to do *all* of those to
make some sense of it. See a comparison at:</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><A
href="http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/A&D+EASI+042102.jpg">http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/A&D+EASI+042102.jpg</A></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>The bottom line is that EASI has a history of more volatile moves than
other similar stocks. Don't get me wrong, the betas on this group are *LOW*
(EASI=(0.03), LMT=0.19, LLL=0.03, CACI=0.63) in comparison to stocks like NVDA
(beta=2.23). The market is favoring low beta, low PE, small-mid cap stocks
right now, so I'd say sticking to stocks like these is a good idea. However,
if I pulled up 20 or 30 stocks with these characteristics, I'd be inclined to
go with the stocks with better fundamentals and easier charts.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>As a side note, you mentioned in your original analysis that EASI was a
"top 10 stock in VV." While its VST places it in the top 10 of all stocks in
the database....look out. VST is a combination of RT (relative
timing-technical), RS (relative safety-past fundamental+price
volatility) and RV (relative value-past profitability+future EPS &
growth), with RT being weighted the highest. When a stock *begins* its move,
the VST is going to be high, but it won't already be the highest in the
database. Its the same idea as the IBD rankings. Once a stock has a RS of 99,
it's already outperformed everything else. Key word there is *already.*</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A title=jl@lessnau.com href="mailto:jl@lessnau.com">John Lessnau</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=canslim@lists.xmission.com
href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>
</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, April 21, 2002 8:07
AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] easi</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>The institutional #s at swhchrarts are way different the
DGO data. DGR in the same industry also looks interesting but seem to
have a string of failed breakouts after forming what looks like a
c&h. I guess the key is to look for a BIG jump in volume at
breakout.</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A title=mike@proactech.com href="mailto:mike@proactech.com">Mike
Gibbons</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
title=canslim@lists.xmission.com
href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>
</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, April 21, 2002 12:43
AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] easi</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN
class=080291404-21042002>Fools rush in.....</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN
class=080291404-21042002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN
class=080291404-21042002>Looking just at the chart for a moment, there
could be a handle forming, but we need a couple more days for it to be
confirmed. Volume is drying up nicely, but it would have been nice to see
stronger volume after the last handle formed. In fact, although this
stock has risen above the pivot set on 4/2, it didn't truly break out
because the volume was barely above average - compare to the heavy volume
on 4/1 - the previous breakout. This suggests that if the handle is
completed, that any subsequent breakout may be prone to failure also (that
almost goes without saying at the moment).</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN class=080291404-21042002>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN
class=080291404-21042002>This stock looked like a very strong candidate
prior to 4/2 based on the chart (I bought it in the handle on 3/28 and
sold on 4/3 for a small profit). I would hesitate before buying it in the
handle this time and would wait for a real breakout.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN
class=080291404-21042002></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></FONT><FONT face=Arial
color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN
class=080291404-21042002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN
class=080291404-21042002>I ran the stock through the canslim evaluator (<A
href="http://www.cwhcharts.com/canslim">www.cwhcharts.com/canslim</A>) and
got different results to you - weak year-on-year growth for the last three
quarters (but a very strong recent quarter perhaps reflecting increased
orders since 9/11). Also institutional ownership at 71%. The stock
rated a 7, but could pick up an extra point if the handle is completed and
the up to down volume ratio improves. </SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN
class=080291404-21042002></SPAN></FONT><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2><SPAN class=080291404-21042002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN
class=080291404-21042002>Others in the group would be able to give a
sounder analysis of the fundamentals so I won't even attempt
to.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN
class=080291404-21042002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN
class=080291404-21042002></SPAN></FONT><FONT face=Arial
size=2>Aloha,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Mike Gibbons<BR>Proactive Technologies,
LLC</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A
href="http://www.proactech.com/">http://www.proactech.com</A></FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE style="MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader dir=ltr align=left><FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]<B>On Behalf Of </B>John
Lessnau<BR><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, April 20, 2002 3:49 PM<BR><B>To:</B>
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM]
easi<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I've been at it for over one month and still have yet
to find a true CANSLIM stock. EASI (group:Elec-military Systems)
is another possibility I have been watching. It looks to be in a
long term cup starting October 8 and currently it seems to be
trying to form a handle. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Why I like this stock:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Strong and consistent quarterly and annual
growth. 26% growth rate</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>40% and growing institutional owner ship (13%
management ownership)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Military supply company in a time of war.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Nearing the pivot point. 14% off the left side
of cup high.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Top 10 rating by Vector Vest.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Low 10 million share float</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>So how about it? Am I getting closer to finding
CANSLIM
gold?</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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