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Subject: Re: "M" (was Re: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast)
Date: Tue, 23 Apr 2002 09:45:22 -0700
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MessageI can't help thinking that we are in the period that represents "The Great CANSLIM Contradiction":
1. M must be rising
2. We must be only buying stocks with strongly rising revenues and EPS
3. We shouldn't be buying 'yesteryears winners', whose revenues and EPS are declining
4. The indexes are made up of '3'
5. 'M' is defined as '4', the indexes
Ian
----- Original Message -----
From: Duke Miller
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Tuesday, April 23, 2002 6:13 AM
Subject: RE: "M" (was Re: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast)
Since (and I agree) M is the most important letter in the alphabet, and since it's as choppy and ill-defined as it is, and since it is often ignored and overlooked, then I only have two questions?
1) What's to discuss?
2) Why are you fully invested under this cloud?
WON says when M's like this the best tactic and virtue is patience. I couldn't agree more. I continue to lurk and look at the future potentials.
Duke
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Tom Worley
Sent: Tuesday, April 23, 2002 8:42 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: "M" (was Re: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast)
I would like to see some serious discussion here on "M". It is the most important of the seven letters in CANSLIM, and is so often ignored or overlooked.
The small caps continue to work for me, and I remain fully invested in all accounts. Money appears to be shifting back from value to growth. Volume appears to be picking up. But because I don't focus on the mid caps, I often wonder what may also be happening there.
Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
From: Hill, Ernie
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'
Sent: Monday, April 22, 2002 12:07 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast
Hi Tom,
It is purely my version of TA. It has really helped me in my trading.
I would not present these forecasts to the group if I were not confident in them. My purpose in posting these forecasts is to give back some value to a group that has given me value. Determining market direction has not been very easy to do lately. It is my hope that as some group members gain some confidence that I may actually know what I am talking about that they could use these forecasts as another tool to benefit them in their CANSLIM investments.
E
PS: Today is certainly not adding to my credibility J
-----Original Message-----
From: Tom Worley [mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net]
Sent: Monday, April 22, 2002 7:16 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast
I don't understand your reasoning for this, Ernie, but I would certainly cheer 1238 on the S&P500 by then.
Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
From: Hill, Ernie
To: CANSLIM
Sent: Saturday, April 20, 2002 10:08 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast
At this point in time I have two high probability projections for the next major turning point in the S&P 500. The highest probability is for a turning point on May 21, 2002 at a price level of 1200. The second highest probability is for a turning point on May 22, 2002 at a price level of 1238. As we approach these dates one of these scenarios should emerge as the most likely candidate.
E
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<DIV><FONT size=2>I can't help thinking that we are in the period that
represents "The Great CANSLIM Contradiction":</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>1. M must be rising</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>2. We must be only buying stocks with strongly rising revenues
and EPS</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>3. We shouldn't be buying 'yesteryears winners', whose
revenues and EPS are declining</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>4. The indexes are made up of '3'</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>5. 'M' is defined as '4', the indexes</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Ian</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:dukemill@tampabay.rr.com" title=dukemill@tampabay.rr.com>Duke
Miller</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"
title=canslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, April 23, 2002 6:13
AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: "M" (was Re: [CANSLIM]
S&P 500 forecast)</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=701060813-23042002><FONT face=Arial>Since (and I
agree) M is the most important letter in the alphabet, and since
it's as choppy and ill-defined as it is, and since it is often ignored and
overlooked, then I only have two questions? </FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=701060813-23042002><FONT
face=Arial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=701060813-23042002><FONT face=Arial>1) What's to
discuss?</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=701060813-23042002><FONT
face=Arial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=701060813-23042002><FONT face=Arial>2) Why are you fully
invested under this cloud?</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=701060813-23042002><FONT
face=Arial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=701060813-23042002><FONT face=Arial>WON says when M's like
this the best tactic and virtue is patience. I couldn't agree
more. I continue to lurk and look at the future
potentials.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=701060813-23042002><FONT
face=Arial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=701060813-23042002><FONT face=Arial>Duke</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=701060813-23042002><FONT
face=Arial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=701060813-23042002><FONT
face=Arial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE style="MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV align=left class=OutlookMessageHeader dir=ltr lang=en-us><FONT
face=Tahoma size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]
<B>On Behalf Of </B>Tom Worley<BR><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, April 23, 2002 8:42
AM<BR><B>To:</B> canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> "M" (was Re:
[CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast)<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial>I would like to see some serious discussion here on
"M". It is the most important of the seven letters in CANSLIM, and is so
often ignored or overlooked. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial>The small caps continue to work for me, and I remain
fully invested in all accounts. Money appears to be shifting back from value
to growth. Volume appears to be picking up. But because I don't focus on the
mid caps, I often wonder what may also be happening there.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>Tom Worley<BR><A
href="mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net">stkguru@bellsouth.net</A><BR>AIM:
TexWorley</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A
href="mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com" title=Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com>Hill,
Ernie</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A href="mailto:'canslim@lists.xmission.com'"
title=canslim@lists.xmission.com>'canslim@lists.xmission.com'</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Monday, April 22, 2002 12:07 PM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV class=Section1>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle19><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">Hi
Tom,<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle19><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle19><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">It
is purely my version of TA. It has really helped me in my
trading.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle19><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle19><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">I
would not present these forecasts to the group if I were not confident in
them. My purpose in posting these forecasts is to give back some value to a
group that has given me value. Determining market direction has not been
very easy to do lately. It is my hope that as some group members gain some
confidence that I may actually know what I am talking about that they could
use these forecasts as another tool to benefit them in their CANSLIM
investments.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle19><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle19><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">E<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle19><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle19><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">PS:
Today is certainly not adding to my credibility </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN
class=EmailStyle19><FONT color=navy face=Wingdings><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Wingdings; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings"><SPAN
style="mso-char-type: symbol; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings">J</SPAN></SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN
class=EmailStyle19><FONT color=navy face=Arial><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle19><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT color=black face=Tahoma
size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">-----Original
Message-----<BR><B><SPAN style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">From:</SPAN></B> Tom
Worley [mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net]<BR><B><SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent:</SPAN></B> Monday, April 22, 2002 7:16
AM<BR><B><SPAN style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">To:</SPAN></B>
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B><SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject:</SPAN></B> Re: [CANSLIM] S&P 500
forecast</SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT color=black face=Arial
size=3><SPAN style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">I
don't understand your reasoning for this, Ernie, but I would certainly cheer
1238 on the S&P500 by then.</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=black><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT color=black
face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT
color=black><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT color=black
face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Tom Worley<BR><A
href="mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net">stkguru@bellsouth.net</A><BR>AIM:
TexWorley</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=black><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT color=black face=Arial
size=2><SPAN style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">-----
Original Message -----
<DIV style="font-color: black"></SPAN></FONT><FONT color=black face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT>
<P></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><B><FONT
color=black face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">From:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT
color=black face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"> <A
href="mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com" title=Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com>Hill,
Ernie</A> </SPAN></FONT><FONT color=black face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><B><FONT color=black
face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">To:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT
color=black face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"> <A
href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"
title=canslim@lists.xmission.com>CANSLIM</A> </SPAN></FONT><FONT color=black
face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><B><FONT color=black
face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT
color=black face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"> Saturday, April
20, 2002 10:08 PM</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=black face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><B><FONT color=black
face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT
color=black face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"> [CANSLIM] S&P
500 forecast</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=black face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT color=black
face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN style="COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> </SPAN></FONT><FONT
color=black><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT color=black face=Arial
size=2><SPAN style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">At
this point in time I have two high probability projections for the next
<U>major turning point</U> in the S&P 500. The highest probability is
for a turning point on <st1:date Month="5" Day="21" Year="2002">May 21,
2002</st1:date> at a price level of 1200. The second highest probability is
for a turning point on <st1:date Month="5" Day="22" Year="2002">May 22,
2002</st1:date> at a price level of 1238. As we approach these dates one of
these scenarios should emerge as the most likely
candidate.</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=black face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT color=black face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT
color=black face=Arial size=2><SPAN
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