Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: Ian <ianstm@shaw.ca>
Subject: Re: "M" (was Re: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast)
Date: Tue, 23 Apr 2002 11:52:34 -0700
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MessageDavid:
I've been thinking a lot about that, and I wonder if it isn't just a subtle change in thinking about 'M'. Clearly a real broad bear market will work against you - when almost everything is going down. When the indexes are all going down hard, and folks are cringing every day at the open - terrified we'll see another 50 point NAZ drop, and 200 point DOW drop. We have had a lot of that since March 2000 - where were no safe havens in any growth stocks.
However, in a period like the one we are in now, where the 'big' indexes appear to be range bound, and the smaller indexes are in an uptrend (midcap, smallcap indexes such as the Russell 2000) there is no longer the fear of an ebb tide leaving every ship and boat dry.
In a way, it isn't unlike the sector strength investing that WON espouses. Going with the indexes that are strong isn't a lot different than going with the sectors that are strong. From the fall of '98 to the spring of '00 we saw the same thing with the NYSE vs the NASDAQ - whether or not we were in a bull or bear was dependent on your perspective at the time.
So maybe instead of just looking at the DOW, S&P and NASDAQ for distribution, bottoms and FTD's, the analysis of 'M' needs to be taken one index at a time? Nobody seemed to care about the DOW or NYSE during the tech bubble bull (the S&P became heavily overweight tech, so it was much more bullish) - so there appears to be a precedent for the selective use of indexes when 'declaring a bull'.
For me personally, I tend to become bullish or bearish based on personal observations: I regular scan my lists of every US stock with strong revenue and EPS growth (non-cyclicals). First, I want to see that it is a decent-sized list, and that it appears to be growing. Second, I continually observe the charts/tickers in an attempt to identify whether or not the market is rewarding these companies as a group. IMHO, since March 2000, there has been no clear trend until about 6 weeks ago (and that trend wasn't clearly visible to me until about 3 weeks ago).
Ian
PS - Bill: The NASDAQ has been in a downtrend for nearly 4 months now. Just because it is above its 9/11 low, doesn't mean 'it is rising'. The slope of all of its moving averages is down. The DOW is actually quite interesting here: the slope of all of its moving averages is almost perfectly horizontal.
- ----- Original Message -----
From: david frank
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Tuesday, April 23, 2002 9:59 AM
Subject: Re: "M" (was Re: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast)
Ian, what do you suggest that the new revise CANSLIM definition be??????????????? david
----- Original Message -----
From: Ian
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Tuesday, April 23, 2002 11:45 AM
Subject: Re: "M" (was Re: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast)
I can't help thinking that we are in the period that represents "The Great CANSLIM Contradiction":
1. M must be rising
2. We must be only buying stocks with strongly rising revenues and EPS
3. We shouldn't be buying 'yesteryears winners', whose revenues and EPS are declining
4. The indexes are made up of '3'
5. 'M' is defined as '4', the indexes
Ian
----- Original Message -----
From: Duke Miller
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Tuesday, April 23, 2002 6:13 AM
Subject: RE: "M" (was Re: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast)
Since (and I agree) M is the most important letter in the alphabet, and since it's as choppy and ill-defined as it is, and since it is often ignored and overlooked, then I only have two questions?
1) What's to discuss?
2) Why are you fully invested under this cloud?
WON says when M's like this the best tactic and virtue is patience. I couldn't agree more. I continue to lurk and look at the future potentials.
Duke
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Tom Worley
Sent: Tuesday, April 23, 2002 8:42 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: "M" (was Re: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast)
I would like to see some serious discussion here on "M". It is the most important of the seven letters in CANSLIM, and is so often ignored or overlooked.
The small caps continue to work for me, and I remain fully invested in all accounts. Money appears to be shifting back from value to growth. Volume appears to be picking up. But because I don't focus on the mid caps, I often wonder what may also be happening there.
Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
From: Hill, Ernie
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'
Sent: Monday, April 22, 2002 12:07 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast
Hi Tom,
It is purely my version of TA. It has really helped me in my trading.
I would not present these forecasts to the group if I were not confident in them. My purpose in posting these forecasts is to give back some value to a group that has given me value. Determining market direction has not been very easy to do lately. It is my hope that as some group members gain some confidence that I may actually know what I am talking about that they could use these forecasts as another tool to benefit them in their CANSLIM investments.
E
PS: Today is certainly not adding to my credibility J
-----Original Message-----
From: Tom Worley [mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net]
Sent: Monday, April 22, 2002 7:16 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast
I don't understand your reasoning for this, Ernie, but I would certainly cheer 1238 on the S&P500 by then.
Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
From: Hill, Ernie
To: CANSLIM
Sent: Saturday, April 20, 2002 10:08 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast
At this point in time I have two high probability projections for the next major turning point in the S&P 500. The highest probability is for a turning point on May 21, 2002 at a price level of 1200. The second highest probability is for a turning point on May 22, 2002 at a price level of 1238. As we approach these dates one of these scenarios should emerge as the most likely candidate.
E
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<DIV><FONT size=2>David:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I've been thinking a lot about that, and I wonder if it isn't
just a subtle change in thinking about 'M'. Clearly a real broad bear market
will work against you - when almost everything is going down. When the indexes
are all going down hard, and folks are cringing every day at the open -
terrified we'll see another 50 point NAZ drop, and 200 point DOW drop. We have
had a lot of that since March 2000 - where were no safe havens in any growth
stocks.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>However, in a period like the one we are in now, where the
'big' indexes appear to be range bound, and the smaller indexes are in an
uptrend (midcap, smallcap indexes such as the Russell 2000) there is no longer
the fear of an ebb tide leaving every ship and boat dry. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>In a way, it isn't unlike the sector strength investing that
WON espouses. Going with the indexes that are strong isn't a lot different than
going with the sectors that are strong. From the fall of '98 to the spring of
'00 we saw the same thing with the NYSE vs the NASDAQ - whether or not we
were in a bull or bear was dependent on your perspective at the
time.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>So maybe instead of just looking at the DOW, S&P and
NASDAQ for distribution, bottoms and FTD's, the analysis of 'M' needs to be
taken one index at a time? Nobody seemed to care about the DOW or NYSE during
the tech bubble bull (the S&P became heavily overweight tech, so it was much
more bullish) - so there appears to be a precedent for the selective use of
indexes when 'declaring a bull'.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>For me personally, I tend to become bullish or bearish based
on personal observations: I regular scan my lists of every US stock with
strong revenue and EPS growth (non-cyclicals). First, I want to see that it
is a decent-sized list, and that it appears to be growing. Second, I continually
observe the charts/tickers in an attempt to identify whether or not
the market is rewarding these companies as a group. IMHO, since March 2000,
there has been no clear trend until about 6 weeks ago (and that trend wasn't
clearly visible to me until about 3 weeks ago).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Ian</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>PS - Bill: The NASDAQ has been in a downtrend for nearly 4
months now. Just because it is above its 9/11 low, doesn't mean 'it is rising'.
The slope of all of its moving averages is down. The DOW is actually quite
interesting here: the slope of all of its moving averages is almost perfectly
horizontal.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:camelot.homes@charter.net"
title=camelot.homes@charter.net>david frank</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"
title=canslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, April 23, 2002 9:59
AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: "M" (was Re: [CANSLIM]
S&P 500 forecast)</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Ian, what do you suggest that the new revise
CANSLIM definition be??????????????? david</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:ianstm@shaw.ca" title=ianstm@shaw.ca>Ian</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"
title=canslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, April 23, 2002 11:45
AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: "M" (was Re: [CANSLIM]
S&P 500 forecast)</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I can't help thinking that we are in the period that
represents "The Great CANSLIM Contradiction":</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>1. M must be rising</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>2. We must be only buying stocks with strongly rising
revenues and EPS</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>3. We shouldn't be buying 'yesteryears winners', whose
revenues and EPS are declining</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>4. The indexes are made up of '3'</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>5. 'M' is defined as '4', the indexes</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Ian</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:dukemill@tampabay.rr.com"
title=dukemill@tampabay.rr.com>Duke Miller</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"
title=canslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, April 23, 2002 6:13
AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: "M" (was Re: [CANSLIM]
S&P 500 forecast)</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=701060813-23042002><FONT face=Arial>Since (and I
agree) M is the most important letter in the alphabet, and since
it's as choppy and ill-defined as it is, and since it is often ignored and
overlooked, then I only have two questions? </FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=701060813-23042002><FONT
face=Arial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=701060813-23042002><FONT face=Arial>1) What's to
discuss?</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=701060813-23042002><FONT
face=Arial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=701060813-23042002><FONT face=Arial>2) Why are you fully
invested under this cloud?</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=701060813-23042002><FONT
face=Arial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=701060813-23042002><FONT face=Arial>WON says when M's
like this the best tactic and virtue is patience. I couldn't agree
more. I continue to lurk and look at the future
potentials.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=701060813-23042002><FONT
face=Arial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=701060813-23042002><FONT
face=Arial>Duke</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=701060813-23042002><FONT
face=Arial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=701060813-23042002><FONT
face=Arial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE style="MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV align=left class=OutlookMessageHeader dir=ltr lang=en-us><FONT
face=Tahoma size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] <B>On Behalf Of </B>Tom
Worley<BR><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, April 23, 2002 8:42 AM<BR><B>To:</B>
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> "M" (was Re: [CANSLIM]
S&P 500 forecast)<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial>I would like to see some serious discussion here
on "M". It is the most important of the seven letters in CANSLIM, and is
so often ignored or overlooked. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial>The small caps continue to work for me, and I
remain fully invested in all accounts. Money appears to be shifting back
from value to growth. Volume appears to be picking up. But because I
don't focus on the mid caps, I often wonder what may also be happening
there.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>Tom Worley<BR><A
href="mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net">stkguru@bellsouth.net</A><BR>AIM:
TexWorley</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A
href="mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com" title=Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com>Hill,
Ernie</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A href="mailto:'canslim@lists.xmission.com'"
title=canslim@lists.xmission.com>'canslim@lists.xmission.com'</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Monday, April 22, 2002 12:07 PM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV class=Section1>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle19><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">Hi
Tom,<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle19><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle19><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">It
is purely my version of TA. It has really helped me in my
trading.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle19><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle19><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">I
would not present these forecasts to the group if I were not confident
in them. My purpose in posting these forecasts is to give back some
value to a group that has given me value. Determining market direction
has not been very easy to do lately. It is my hope that as some group
members gain some confidence that I may actually know what I am talking
about that they could use these forecasts as another tool to benefit
them in their CANSLIM investments.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle19><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle19><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">E<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle19><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle19><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">PS:
Today is certainly not adding to my credibility
</SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN class=EmailStyle19><FONT color=navy
face=Wingdings><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Wingdings; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings"><SPAN
style="mso-char-type: symbol; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings">J</SPAN></SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN
class=EmailStyle19><FONT color=navy face=Arial><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=EmailStyle19><FONT color=navy face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT color=black
face=Tahoma size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">-----Original
Message-----<BR><B><SPAN style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">From:</SPAN></B> Tom
Worley [mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net]<BR><B><SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent:</SPAN></B> Monday, April 22, 2002 7:16
AM<BR><B><SPAN style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">To:</SPAN></B>
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B><SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject:</SPAN></B> Re: [CANSLIM] S&P 500
forecast</SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT color=black
face=Arial size=3><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">I don't
understand your reasoning for this, Ernie, but I would certainly cheer
1238 on the S&P500 by then.</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=black><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT color=black
face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT
color=black><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT color=black
face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Tom Worley<BR><A
href="mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net">stkguru@bellsouth.net</A><BR>AIM:
TexWorley</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=black><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT color=black
face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">----- Original
Message -----
<DIV style="font-color: black"></SPAN></FONT><FONT color=black
face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT>
<P></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><B><FONT color=black
face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">From:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT
color=black face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"> <A
href="mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com" title=Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com>Hill,
Ernie</A> </SPAN></FONT><FONT color=black face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><B><FONT color=black
face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">To:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT
color=black face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"> <A
href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"
title=canslim@lists.xmission.com>CANSLIM</A> </SPAN></FONT><FONT
color=black face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><B><FONT color=black
face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT
color=black face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"> Saturday,
April 20, 2002 10:08 PM</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=black face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><B><FONT color=black
face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT
color=black face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"> [CANSLIM]
S&P 500 forecast</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=black face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT color=black
face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> </SPAN></FONT><FONT
color=black><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT color=black
face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">At this point
in time I have two high probability projections for the next <U>major
turning point</U> in the S&P 500. The highest probability is for a
turning point on <st1:date Month="5" Day="21" Year="2002">May 21,
2002</st1:date> at a price level of 1200. The second highest probability
is for a turning point on <st1:date Month="5" Day="22" Year="2002">May
22, 2002</st1:date> at a price level of 1238. As we approach these dates
one of these scenarios should emerge as the most likely
candidate.</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=black face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT color=black
face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT
color=black face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT color=black
face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">E</SPAN></FONT><FONT
color=black face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
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