Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Duke Miller" <dukemill@tampabay.rr.com>
Subject: RE: "M" (was Re: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast)
Date: Tue, 23 Apr 2002 15:32:57 -0400
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Ian:
I'm as far from a physicist as one can possibly be, but....
"Almost perfectly horizontal," maybe, but if I place a marble at any
point along the 200DMA of all three averages it will still roll from
left to right, as in DOWN. At no point along that line will it ever
incur ANY resistance from gravity, as in slope up. One may respond,
"Duke, get serious, the 200 DMA can still be sloping down as the market
turns up." Fine. Which leads me to ask, "If it's anathema to buy a
stock languishing below its 200DMA (like two out of three of our indexes
are at this moment), why then, if M is so important would I ever buy in
a market under its 200DMA?"
I find your mention of the sectors equally challenging. Looking at the
leading sectors in this a.m.'s IBD I notice the Russell 2000 is a
"sector" (thought it was an index, based on company size), as is the
AMEX.
So this begs the question: What the in the name of WON is M, anyway?
And if sectors are what's important, where's the list of companies in
each sector (not just the leading ones), and what impact does a stock's
industry have on this?
I'm exhausted!
Duke
- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Ian
Sent: Tuesday, April 23, 2002 2:53 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: "M" (was Re: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast)
David:
I've been thinking a lot about that, and I wonder if it isn't just a
subtle change in thinking about 'M'. Clearly a real broad bear market
will work against you - when almost everything is going down. When the
indexes are all going down hard, and folks are cringing every day at the
open - terrified we'll see another 50 point NAZ drop, and 200 point DOW
drop. We have had a lot of that since March 2000 - where were no safe
havens in any growth stocks.
However, in a period like the one we are in now, where the 'big' indexes
appear to be range bound, and the smaller indexes are in an uptrend
(midcap, smallcap indexes such as the Russell 2000) there is no longer
the fear of an ebb tide leaving every ship and boat dry.
In a way, it isn't unlike the sector strength investing that WON
espouses. Going with the indexes that are strong isn't a lot different
than going with the sectors that are strong. From the fall of '98 to the
spring of '00 we saw the same thing with the NYSE vs the NASDAQ -
whether or not we were in a bull or bear was dependent on your
perspective at the time.
So maybe instead of just looking at the DOW, S&P and NASDAQ for
distribution, bottoms and FTD's, the analysis of 'M' needs to be taken
one index at a time? Nobody seemed to care about the DOW or NYSE during
the tech bubble bull (the S&P became heavily overweight tech, so it was
much more bullish) - so there appears to be a precedent for the
selective use of indexes when 'declaring a bull'.
For me personally, I tend to become bullish or bearish based on personal
observations: I regular scan my lists of every US stock with strong
revenue and EPS growth (non-cyclicals). First, I want to see that it is
a decent-sized list, and that it appears to be growing. Second, I
continually observe the charts/tickers in an attempt to identify whether
or not the market is rewarding these companies as a group. IMHO, since
March 2000, there has been no clear trend until about 6 weeks ago (and
that trend wasn't clearly visible to me until about 3 weeks ago).
Ian
PS - Bill: The NASDAQ has been in a downtrend for nearly 4 months now.
Just because it is above its 9/11 low, doesn't mean 'it is rising'. The
slope of all of its moving averages is down. The DOW is actually quite
interesting here: the slope of all of its moving averages is almost
perfectly horizontal.
- ----- Original Message -----
From: david frank <mailto:camelot.homes@charter.net>
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Tuesday, April 23, 2002 9:59 AM
Subject: Re: "M" (was Re: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast)
Ian, what do you suggest that the new revise CANSLIM definition
be??????????????? david
- ----- Original Message -----
From: Ian <mailto:ianstm@shaw.ca>
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Tuesday, April 23, 2002 11:45 AM
Subject: Re: "M" (was Re: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast)
I can't help thinking that we are in the period that represents "The
Great CANSLIM Contradiction":
1. M must be rising
2. We must be only buying stocks with strongly rising revenues and EPS
3. We shouldn't be buying 'yesteryears winners', whose revenues and EPS
are declining
4. The indexes are made up of '3'
5. 'M' is defined as '4', the indexes
Ian
- ----- Original Message -----
From: Duke Miller <mailto:dukemill@tampabay.rr.com>
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Tuesday, April 23, 2002 6:13 AM
Subject: RE: "M" (was Re: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast)
Since (and I agree) M is the most important letter in the alphabet, and
since it's as choppy and ill-defined as it is, and since it is often
ignored and overlooked, then I only have two questions?
1) What's to discuss?
2) Why are you fully invested under this cloud?
WON says when M's like this the best tactic and virtue is patience. I
couldn't agree more. I continue to lurk and look at the future
potentials.
Duke
- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Tom Worley
Sent: Tuesday, April 23, 2002 8:42 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: "M" (was Re: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast)
I would like to see some serious discussion here on "M". It is the most
important of the seven letters in CANSLIM, and is so often ignored or
overlooked.
The small caps continue to work for me, and I remain fully invested in
all accounts. Money appears to be shifting back from value to growth.
Volume appears to be picking up. But because I don't focus on the mid
caps, I often wonder what may also be happening there.
Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: TexWorley
- ----- Original Message -----
From: Hill, <mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com> Ernie
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'
Sent: Monday, April 22, 2002 12:07 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast
Hi Tom,
It is purely my version of TA. It has really helped me in my trading.
I would not present these forecasts to the group if I were not confident
in them. My purpose in posting these forecasts is to give back some
value to a group that has given me value. Determining market direction
has not been very easy to do lately. It is my hope that as some group
members gain some confidence that I may actually know what I am talking
about that they could use these forecasts as another tool to benefit
them in their CANSLIM investments.
E
PS: Today is certainly not adding to my credibility :-)
- -----Original Message-----
From: Tom Worley [mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net]
Sent: Monday, April 22, 2002 7:16 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast
I don't understand your reasoning for this, Ernie, but I would certainly
cheer 1238 on the S&P500 by then.
Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: TexWorley
- ----- Original Message -----
From: Hill, <mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com> Ernie
To: CANSLIM <mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Saturday, April 20, 2002 10:08 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast
At this point in time I have two high probability projections for the
next major turning point in the S&P 500. The highest probability is for
a turning point on May 21, 2002 at a price level of 1200. The second
highest probability is for a turning point on May 22, 2002 at a price
level of 1238. As we approach these dates one of these scenarios should
emerge as the most likely candidate.
E
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<DIV><SPAN class=3D841480519-23042002><FONT =
face=3DArial>Ian:</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D841480519-23042002><FONT =
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D841480519-23042002><FONT face=3DArial>I'm as far from =
a physicist=20
as one can possibly be, but....</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D841480519-23042002><FONT =
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D841480519-23042002><FONT face=3DArial>"Almost =
perfectly=20
horizontal," maybe, but if I place a marble at any point along the =
200DMA of all=20
three averages it will still roll from left to right, as in =
DOWN. At=20
no point along that line will it ever incur ANY resistance from =
gravity, as=20
in slope up. One may respond, "Duke, get serious, the 200 DMA can =
still be=20
sloping down as the market turns up." Fine. Which leads me =
to ask,=20
"If it's anathema to buy a stock languishing below its 200DMA (like two =
out of=20
three of our indexes are at this moment), why then, if M is so important =
would I=20
ever buy in a market under its 200DMA?"</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D841480519-23042002><FONT =
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial><SPAN class=3D841480519-23042002>I find your =
mention of the=20
sectors equally challenging. Looking at the leading =
sectors in=20
this a.m.'s IBD I notice the Russell 2000 is a "sector" (thought it was =
an=20
index, based on company size), as is the AMEX. =
</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial><SPAN =
class=3D841480519-23042002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial><SPAN class=3D841480519-23042002>So this begs =
the=20
question: What the in the name of WON is M, anyway? And if =
sectors=20
are what's important, where's the list of companies in each sector (not =
just the=20
leading ones), and what impact does a stock's industry have on=20
this?</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial><SPAN =
class=3D841480519-23042002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial><SPAN class=3D841480519-23042002>I'm =
exhausted! =20
</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial><SPAN =
class=3D841480519-23042002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial><SPAN =
class=3D841480519-23042002>Duke</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D841480519-23042002><FONT =
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader lang=3Den-us dir=3Dltr =
align=3Dleft><FONT=20
face=3DTahoma size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>=20
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com =
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]=20
<B>On Behalf Of </B>Ian<BR><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, April 23, 2002 2:53=20
PM<BR><B>To:</B> canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: "M" =
(was=20
Re: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast)<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>David:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>I've been thinking a lot about that, and I wonder =
if it=20
isn't just a subtle change in thinking about 'M'. Clearly a real broad =
bear=20
market will work against you - when almost everything is going down. =
When the=20
indexes are all going down hard, and folks are cringing every day at =
the open=20
- terrified we'll see another 50 point NAZ drop, and 200 point DOW =
drop. We=20
have had a lot of that since March 2000 - where were no safe havens in =
any=20
growth stocks.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>However, in a period like the one we are in now, =
where the=20
'big' indexes appear to be range bound, and the smaller indexes are in =
an=20
uptrend (midcap, smallcap indexes such as the Russell 2000) there is =
no longer=20
the fear of an ebb tide leaving every ship and boat dry. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>In a way, it isn't unlike the sector strength =
investing that=20
WON espouses. Going with the indexes that are strong isn't a lot =
different=20
than going with the sectors that are strong. From the fall of '98 to =
the=20
spring of '00 we saw the same thing with the NYSE vs the NASDAQ - =
whether=20
or not we were in a bull or bear was dependent on your =
perspective at the=20
time.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>So maybe instead of just looking at the DOW, =
S&P and=20
NASDAQ for distribution, bottoms and FTD's, the analysis of 'M' needs =
to be=20
taken one index at a time? Nobody seemed to care about the DOW or NYSE =
during=20
the tech bubble bull (the S&P became heavily overweight tech, so =
it was=20
much more bullish) - so there appears to be a precedent for the =
selective=20
use of indexes when 'declaring a bull'.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>For me personally, I tend to become bullish or =
bearish based=20
on personal observations: I regular scan my lists of every US =
stock with=20
strong revenue and EPS growth (non-cyclicals). First, I want to =
see that=20
it is a decent-sized list, and that it appears to be growing. Second, =
I=20
continually observe the charts/tickers in an attempt to =
identify=20
whether or not the market is rewarding these companies as a group. =
IMHO, since=20
March 2000, there has been no clear trend until about 6 weeks ago (and =
that=20
trend wasn't clearly visible to me until about 3 weeks =
ago).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Ian</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>PS - Bill: The NASDAQ has been in a downtrend for =
nearly 4=20
months now. Just because it is above its 9/11 low, doesn't mean 'it is =
rising'. The slope of all of its moving averages is down. The DOW is =
actually=20
quite interesting here: the slope of all of its moving averages is =
almost=20
perfectly horizontal.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dcamelot.homes@charter.net=20
href=3D"mailto:camelot.homes@charter.net">david frank</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, April 23, 2002 =
9:59=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: "M" (was Re: =
[CANSLIM]=20
S&P 500 forecast)</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Ian, what do you suggest that the =
new revise=20
CANSLIM definition be??????????????? david</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dianstm@shaw.ca href=3D"mailto:ianstm@shaw.ca">Ian</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, April 23, =
2002 11:45=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: "M" (was Re: =
[CANSLIM]=20
S&P 500 forecast)</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>I can't help thinking that we are in the =
period that=20
represents "The Great CANSLIM Contradiction":</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>1. M must be rising</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>2. We must be only buying stocks with strongly =
rising=20
revenues and EPS</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>3. We shouldn't be buying 'yesteryears =
winners', whose=20
revenues and EPS are declining</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>4. The indexes are made up of '3'</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>5. 'M' is defined as '4', the =
indexes</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Ian</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Ddukemill@tampabay.rr.com=20
href=3D"mailto:dukemill@tampabay.rr.com">Duke Miller</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, April 23, =
2002 6:13=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: "M" (was Re: =
[CANSLIM]=20
S&P 500 forecast)</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D701060813-23042002><FONT face=3DArial>Since =
(and I=20
agree) M is the most important letter in the alphabet,=20
and since it's as choppy and ill-defined as it is, and =
since it is=20
often ignored and overlooked, then I only have two =
questions? =20
</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D701060813-23042002><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D701060813-23042002><FONT face=3DArial>1) =
What's to=20
discuss?</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D701060813-23042002><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D701060813-23042002><FONT face=3DArial>2) Why =
are you=20
fully invested under this cloud?</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D701060813-23042002><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D701060813-23042002><FONT face=3DArial>WON =
says when M's=20
like this the best tactic and virtue is patience. I =
couldn't agree=20
more. I continue to lurk and look at the future=20
potentials.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D701060813-23042002><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D701060813-23042002><FONT=20
face=3DArial>Duke</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D701060813-23042002><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D701060813-23042002><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader lang=3Den-us dir=3Dltr =
align=3Dleft><FONT=20
face=3DTahoma size=3D2>-----Original =
Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>=20
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] <B>On Behalf Of =
</B>Tom=20
Worley<BR><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, April 23, 2002 8:42 =
AM<BR><B>To:</B>=20
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> "M" (was Re: =
[CANSLIM]=20
S&P 500 forecast)<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I would like to see some serious =
discussion here=20
on "M". It is the most important of the seven letters in =
CANSLIM, and=20
is so often ignored or overlooked. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The small caps continue to work for =
me, and I=20
remain fully invested in all accounts. Money appears to be =
shifting=20
back from value to growth. Volume appears to be picking up. =
But=20
because I don't focus on the mid caps, I often wonder what may =
also be=20
happening there.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net">stkguru@bellsouth.net</A><BR>AIM:=20
TexWorley</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----=20
<DIV style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B> <A=20
title=3DErnie.Hill@ElPaso.com =
href=3D"mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com">Hill,=20
Ernie</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:'canslim@lists.xmission.com'">'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=
</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Monday, April 22, 2002 12:07 PM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 =
forecast</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV class=3DSection1>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle19><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dnavy size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">Hi=20
Tom,<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle19><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dnavy size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle19><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dnavy size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">It=20
is purely my version of TA. It has really helped me in my=20
trading.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle19><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dnavy size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle19><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dnavy size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">I=20
would not present these forecasts to the group if I were not =
confident=20
in them. My purpose in posting these forecasts is to give back =
some=20
value to a group that has given me value. Determining market =
direction=20
has not been very easy to do lately. It is my hope that as =
some group=20
members gain some confidence that I may actually know what I =
am=20
talking about that they could use these forecasts as another =
tool to=20
benefit them in their CANSLIM=20
investments.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle19><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dnavy size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle19><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dnavy size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">E<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle19><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dnavy size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle19><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dnavy size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">PS:=20
Today is certainly not adding to my credibility=20
</SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle19><FONT =
face=3DWingdings=20
color=3Dnavy><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: Wingdings; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; =
mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-char-type: =
symbol; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-char-type: symbol; mso-symbol-font-family: =
Wingdings">J</SPAN></SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN=20
class=3DEmailStyle19><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-font-size: =
12.0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle19><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT =
face=3DTahoma=20
color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Tahoma">-----Original=20
Message-----<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: =
bold">From:</SPAN></B>=20
Tom Worley [mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net]<BR><B><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent:</SPAN></B> Monday, April 22, =
2002 7:16=20
AM<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">To:</SPAN></B>=20
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject:</SPAN></B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
S&P=20
500 forecast</SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT=20
face=3D"Times New Roman" size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">I =
don't=20
understand your reasoning for this, Ernie, but I would =
certainly cheer=20
1238 on the S&P500 by then.</SPAN></FONT><FONT =
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT=20
face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: =
black"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT=20
face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black">Tom Worley<BR><A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net">stkguru@bellsouth.net</A><BR>AIM:=20
TexWorley</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">-----=20
Original Message -----=20
<DIV style=3D"font-color: black"></SPAN></FONT><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT>
<P></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><B><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; =
FONT-FAMILY: Arial">From:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> =
<A=20
title=3DErnie.Hill@ElPaso.com =
href=3D"mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com">Hill,=20
Ernie</A> </SPAN></FONT><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dblack =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><B><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; =
FONT-FAMILY: Arial">To:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> =
<A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">CANSLIM</A>=20
</SPAN></FONT><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><B><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; =
FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Sent:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> =
Saturday,=20
April 20, 2002 10:08 PM</SPAN></FONT><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3Dblack=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><B><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; =
FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Subject:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> =
[CANSLIM]=20
S&P 500 forecast</SPAN></FONT><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3Dblack=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT=20
face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">At =
this=20
point in time I have two high probability projections for the =
next=20
<U>major turning point</U> in the S&P 500. The highest =
probability=20
is for a turning point on <st1:date Month=3D"5" Day=3D"21" =
Year=3D"2002">May=20
21, 2002</st1:date> at a price level of 1200. The second =
highest=20
probability is for a turning point on <st1:date Month=3D"5" =
Day=3D"22"=20
Year=3D"2002">May 22, 2002</st1:date> at a price level of =
1238. As we=20
approach these dates one of these scenarios should emerge as =
the most=20
likely candidate.</SPAN></FONT><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3Dblack=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">E</SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT =
face=3D"Courier New"=20
color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier =
New'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"><BR><BR><CODE><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">*****************************************************************=
*</SPAN></CODE><BR><CODE><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">This=20
email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso=20
</SPAN></CODE><BR><CODE><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">Corporation=20
are confidential and intended solely for the=20
</SPAN></CODE><BR><CODE><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">use of=20
the individual or entity to whom they are addressed.=20
</SPAN></CODE><BR><CODE><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">If you=20
have received this email in error please notify the=20
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12.0pt">sender.</SPAN></CODE><BR><CODE><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">*****************************************************************=
*</SPAN></CODE></SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV><CODE><FONT=20
=
size=3D3><BR><BR>********************************************************=
**********<BR>This=20
email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso=20
<BR>Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the =
<BR>use=20
of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. <BR>If =
you=20
have received this email in error please notify the=20
=
<BR>sender.<BR>**********************************************************=
********<BR></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQU=
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