Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "david frank" <camelot.homes@charter.net>
Subject: Re: "M" (was Re: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast)
Date: Tue, 23 Apr 2002 15:12:32 -0500
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MessageGoodbye ftd-comp just went under last week's rally low with =
distrbution. not bearish or bullish-M tells the story. too many fortune =
tellers. small cap stocks-if one has money needs to buy thousand of =
shares-try getting out one of those low volume stocks when it turns =
around-your large profits dry up like the texas weather. david
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Duke Miller=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Tuesday, April 23, 2002 2:32 PM
Subject: RE: "M" (was Re: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast)
Ian:
I'm as far from a physicist as one can possibly be, but....
"Almost perfectly horizontal," maybe, but if I place a marble at any =
point along the 200DMA of all three averages it will still roll from =
left to right, as in DOWN. At no point along that line will it ever =
incur ANY resistance from gravity, as in slope up. One may respond, =
"Duke, get serious, the 200 DMA can still be sloping down as the market =
turns up." Fine. Which leads me to ask, "If it's anathema to buy a =
stock languishing below its 200DMA (like two out of three of our indexes =
are at this moment), why then, if M is so important would I ever buy in =
a market under its 200DMA?"
I find your mention of the sectors equally challenging. Looking at =
the leading sectors in this a.m.'s IBD I notice the Russell 2000 is a =
"sector" (thought it was an index, based on company size), as is the =
AMEX. =20
So this begs the question: What the in the name of WON is M, anyway? =
And if sectors are what's important, where's the list of companies in =
each sector (not just the leading ones), and what impact does a stock's =
industry have on this?
I'm exhausted! =20
Duke
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com =
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Ian
Sent: Tuesday, April 23, 2002 2:53 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: "M" (was Re: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast)
David:
I've been thinking a lot about that, and I wonder if it isn't just a =
subtle change in thinking about 'M'. Clearly a real broad bear market =
will work against you - when almost everything is going down. When the =
indexes are all going down hard, and folks are cringing every day at the =
open - terrified we'll see another 50 point NAZ drop, and 200 point DOW =
drop. We have had a lot of that since March 2000 - where were no safe =
havens in any growth stocks.
However, in a period like the one we are in now, where the 'big' =
indexes appear to be range bound, and the smaller indexes are in an =
uptrend (midcap, smallcap indexes such as the Russell 2000) there is no =
longer the fear of an ebb tide leaving every ship and boat dry.=20
In a way, it isn't unlike the sector strength investing that WON =
espouses. Going with the indexes that are strong isn't a lot different =
than going with the sectors that are strong. From the fall of '98 to the =
spring of '00 we saw the same thing with the NYSE vs the NASDAQ - =
whether or not we were in a bull or bear was dependent on your =
perspective at the time.
So maybe instead of just looking at the DOW, S&P and NASDAQ for =
distribution, bottoms and FTD's, the analysis of 'M' needs to be taken =
one index at a time? Nobody seemed to care about the DOW or NYSE during =
the tech bubble bull (the S&P became heavily overweight tech, so it was =
much more bullish) - so there appears to be a precedent for the =
selective use of indexes when 'declaring a bull'.
For me personally, I tend to become bullish or bearish based on =
personal observations: I regular scan my lists of every US stock with =
strong revenue and EPS growth (non-cyclicals). First, I want to see that =
it is a decent-sized list, and that it appears to be growing. Second, I =
continually observe the charts/tickers in an attempt to identify whether =
or not the market is rewarding these companies as a group. IMHO, since =
March 2000, there has been no clear trend until about 6 weeks ago (and =
that trend wasn't clearly visible to me until about 3 weeks ago).
Ian
PS - Bill: The NASDAQ has been in a downtrend for nearly 4 months =
now. Just because it is above its 9/11 low, doesn't mean 'it is rising'. =
The slope of all of its moving averages is down. The DOW is actually =
quite interesting here: the slope of all of its moving averages is =
almost perfectly horizontal.
----- Original Message -----=20
From: david frank=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Tuesday, April 23, 2002 9:59 AM
Subject: Re: "M" (was Re: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast)
Ian, what do you suggest that the new revise CANSLIM definition =
be??????????????? david
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Ian=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Tuesday, April 23, 2002 11:45 AM
Subject: Re: "M" (was Re: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast)
I can't help thinking that we are in the period that represents =
"The Great CANSLIM Contradiction":
1. M must be rising
2. We must be only buying stocks with strongly rising revenues =
and EPS
3. We shouldn't be buying 'yesteryears winners', whose revenues =
and EPS are declining
4. The indexes are made up of '3'
5. 'M' is defined as '4', the indexes
Ian
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Duke Miller=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Tuesday, April 23, 2002 6:13 AM
Subject: RE: "M" (was Re: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast)
Since (and I agree) M is the most important letter in the =
alphabet, and since it's as choppy and ill-defined as it is, and since =
it is often ignored and overlooked, then I only have two questions? =20
1) What's to discuss?
2) Why are you fully invested under this cloud?
WON says when M's like this the best tactic and virtue is =
patience. I couldn't agree more. I continue to lurk and look at the =
future potentials.
Duke
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com =
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Tom Worley
Sent: Tuesday, April 23, 2002 8:42 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: "M" (was Re: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast)
I would like to see some serious discussion here on "M". It =
is the most important of the seven letters in CANSLIM, and is so often =
ignored or overlooked.=20
The small caps continue to work for me, and I remain fully =
invested in all accounts. Money appears to be shifting back from value =
to growth. Volume appears to be picking up. But because I don't focus on =
the mid caps, I often wonder what may also be happening there.
Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: TexWorley
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Hill, Ernie=20
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=20
Sent: Monday, April 22, 2002 12:07 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast
Hi Tom,
=20
It is purely my version of TA. It has really helped me in my =
trading.
=20
I would not present these forecasts to the group if I were =
not confident in them. My purpose in posting these forecasts is to give =
back some value to a group that has given me value. Determining market =
direction has not been very easy to do lately. It is my hope that as =
some group members gain some confidence that I may actually know what I =
am talking about that they could use these forecasts as another tool to =
benefit them in their CANSLIM investments.
=20
E
=20
PS: Today is certainly not adding to my credibility J
=20
-----Original Message-----
From: Tom Worley [mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net]
Sent: Monday, April 22, 2002 7:16 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast
=20
I don't understand your reasoning for this, Ernie, but I =
would certainly cheer 1238 on the S&P500 by then.
=20
Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: TexWorley
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Hill, Ernie=20
To: CANSLIM=20
Sent: Saturday, April 20, 2002 10:08 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast
=20
At this point in time I have two high probability =
projections for the next major turning point in the S&P 500. The highest =
probability is for a turning point on May 21, 2002 at a price level of =
1200. The second highest probability is for a turning point on May 22, =
2002 at a price level of 1238. As we approach these dates one of these =
scenarios should emerge as the most likely candidate.
=20
E
=
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Goodbye ftd-comp just went under last =
week's rally=20
low with distrbution. not bearish or bullish-M tells the story. too =
many=20
fortune tellers. small cap stocks-if one has money needs to buy =
thousand=20
of shares-try getting out one of those low volume stocks when it turns=20
around-your large profits dry up like the texas =
weather. david</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Ddukemill@tampabay.rr.com =
href=3D"mailto:dukemill@tampabay.rr.com">Duke=20
Miller</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, April 23, 2002 =
2:32=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: "M" (was Re: =
[CANSLIM]=20
S&P 500 forecast)</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D841480519-23042002><FONT =
face=3DArial>Ian:</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D841480519-23042002><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D841480519-23042002><FONT face=3DArial>I'm as far =
from a=20
physicist as one can possibly be, but....</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D841480519-23042002><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D841480519-23042002><FONT face=3DArial>"Almost =
perfectly=20
horizontal," maybe, but if I place a marble at any point along the =
200DMA of=20
all three averages it will still roll from left to right, as in=20
DOWN. At no point along that line will it ever =
incur ANY=20
resistance from gravity, as in slope up. One may respond, "Duke, =
get=20
serious, the 200 DMA can still be sloping down as the market turns =
up." =20
Fine. Which leads me to ask, "If it's anathema to buy a stock=20
languishing below its 200DMA (like two out of three of our indexes are =
at this=20
moment), why then, if M is so important would I ever buy in a market =
under its=20
200DMA?"</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D841480519-23042002><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial><SPAN class=3D841480519-23042002>I find your =
mention of=20
the sectors equally challenging. Looking at the =
leading=20
sectors in this a.m.'s IBD I notice the Russell 2000 is a "sector" =
(thought it=20
was an index, based on company size), as is the AMEX. =20
</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial><SPAN=20
class=3D841480519-23042002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial><SPAN class=3D841480519-23042002>So this begs =
the=20
question: What the in the name of WON is M, anyway? And if =
sectors=20
are what's important, where's the list of companies in each sector =
(not just=20
the leading ones), and what impact does a stock's industry have on=20
this?</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial><SPAN=20
class=3D841480519-23042002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial><SPAN class=3D841480519-23042002>I'm =
exhausted! =20
</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial><SPAN=20
class=3D841480519-23042002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial><SPAN =
class=3D841480519-23042002>Duke</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D841480519-23042002><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader lang=3Den-us dir=3Dltr =
align=3Dleft><FONT=20
face=3DTahoma size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>=20
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com =
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]=20
<B>On Behalf Of </B>Ian<BR><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, April 23, 2002 2:53 =
PM<BR><B>To:</B> canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: =
"M" (was=20
Re: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast)<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>David:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>I've been thinking a lot about that, and I =
wonder if it=20
isn't just a subtle change in thinking about 'M'. Clearly a real =
broad bear=20
market will work against you - when almost everything is going down. =
When=20
the indexes are all going down hard, and folks are cringing every =
day at the=20
open - terrified we'll see another 50 point NAZ drop, and 200 point =
DOW=20
drop. We have had a lot of that since March 2000 - where were no =
safe havens=20
in any growth stocks.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>However, in a period like the one we are in now, =
where the=20
'big' indexes appear to be range bound, and the smaller indexes are =
in an=20
uptrend (midcap, smallcap indexes such as the Russell 2000) there is =
no=20
longer the fear of an ebb tide leaving every ship and boat dry.=20
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>In a way, it isn't unlike the sector strength =
investing=20
that WON espouses. Going with the indexes that are strong isn't a =
lot=20
different than going with the sectors that are strong. From the fall =
of '98=20
to the spring of '00 we saw the same thing with the NYSE vs the =
NASDAQ -=20
whether or not we were in a bull or bear was dependent on your=20
perspective at the time.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>So maybe instead of just looking at the DOW, =
S&P and=20
NASDAQ for distribution, bottoms and FTD's, the analysis of 'M' =
needs to be=20
taken one index at a time? Nobody seemed to care about the DOW or =
NYSE=20
during the tech bubble bull (the S&P became heavily overweight =
tech, so=20
it was much more bullish) - so there appears to be a =
precedent for the=20
selective use of indexes when 'declaring a bull'.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>For me personally, I tend to become bullish or =
bearish=20
based on personal observations: I regular scan my lists of =
every US=20
stock with strong revenue and EPS growth =
(non-cyclicals). First, I want=20
to see that it is a decent-sized list, and that it appears to be =
growing.=20
Second, I continually observe the charts/tickers in =
an attempt to=20
identify whether or not the market is rewarding these companies as a =
group.=20
IMHO, since March 2000, there has been no clear trend until about 6 =
weeks=20
ago (and that trend wasn't clearly visible to me until about 3 weeks =
ago).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Ian</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>PS - Bill: The NASDAQ has been in a downtrend =
for nearly 4=20
months now. Just because it is above its 9/11 low, doesn't mean 'it =
is=20
rising'. The slope of all of its moving averages is down. The DOW is =
actually quite interesting here: the slope of all of its moving =
averages is=20
almost perfectly horizontal.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dcamelot.homes@charter.net=20
href=3D"mailto:camelot.homes@charter.net">david frank</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, April 23, =
2002 9:59=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: "M" (was Re: =
[CANSLIM]=20
S&P 500 forecast)</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Ian, what do you suggest that the =
new revise=20
CANSLIM definition be??????????????? david</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dianstm@shaw.ca href=3D"mailto:ianstm@shaw.ca">Ian</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, April 23, =
2002 11:45=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: "M" (was Re: =
[CANSLIM]=20
S&P 500 forecast)</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>I can't help thinking that we are in the =
period that=20
represents "The Great CANSLIM Contradiction":</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>1. M must be rising</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>2. We must be only buying stocks with =
strongly rising=20
revenues and EPS</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>3. We shouldn't be buying 'yesteryears =
winners', whose=20
revenues and EPS are declining</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>4. The indexes are made up of =
'3'</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>5. 'M' is defined as '4', the =
indexes</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Ian</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: =
5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Ddukemill@tampabay.rr.com=20
href=3D"mailto:dukemill@tampabay.rr.com">Duke Miller</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, April =
23, 2002=20
6:13 AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: "M" (was =
Re:=20
[CANSLIM] S&P 500 forecast)</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D701060813-23042002><FONT face=3DArial>Since =
(and I=20
agree) M is the most important letter in the alphabet,=20
and since it's as choppy and ill-defined as it is, and =
since it=20
is often ignored and overlooked, then I only have two =
questions? =20
</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D701060813-23042002><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D701060813-23042002><FONT face=3DArial>1) =
What's to=20
discuss?</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D701060813-23042002><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D701060813-23042002><FONT face=3DArial>2) =
Why are you=20
fully invested under this cloud?</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D701060813-23042002><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D701060813-23042002><FONT face=3DArial>WON =
says when M's=20
like this the best tactic and virtue is patience. I =
couldn't=20
agree more. I continue to lurk and look at the future=20
potentials.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D701060813-23042002><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D701060813-23042002><FONT=20
face=3DArial>Duke</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D701060813-23042002><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D701060813-23042002><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader lang=3Den-us dir=3Dltr =
align=3Dleft><FONT=20
face=3DTahoma size=3D2>-----Original =
Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>=20
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] <B>On Behalf Of =
</B>Tom=20
Worley<BR><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, April 23, 2002 8:42 =
AM<BR><B>To:</B>=20
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> "M" (was Re: =
[CANSLIM]=20
S&P 500 forecast)<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I would like to see some serious =
discussion=20
here on "M". It is the most important of the seven letters =
in=20
CANSLIM, and is so often ignored or overlooked. =
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The small caps continue to work for =
me, and I=20
remain fully invested in all accounts. Money appears to be =
shifting=20
back from value to growth. Volume appears to be picking up. =
But=20
because I don't focus on the mid caps, I often wonder what =
may also=20
be happening there.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net">stkguru@bellsouth.net</A><BR>AIM:=20
TexWorley</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
<DIV style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B> <A=20
title=3DErnie.Hill@ElPaso.com=20
href=3D"mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com">Hill, Ernie</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:'canslim@lists.xmission.com'">'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=
</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Monday, April 22, 2002 12:07 PM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] S&P 500 =
forecast</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV class=3DSection1>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle19><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dnavy size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">Hi=20
Tom,<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle19><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dnavy size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle19><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dnavy size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">It=20
is purely my version of TA. It has really helped me in my=20
trading.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle19><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dnavy size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle19><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dnavy size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">I=20
would not present these forecasts to the group if I were not =
confident in them. My purpose in posting these forecasts is =
to give=20
back some value to a group that has given me value. =
Determining=20
market direction has not been very easy to do lately. It is =
my hope=20
that as some group members gain some confidence that I may =
actually=20
know what I am talking about that they could use these =
forecasts as=20
another tool to benefit them in their CANSLIM=20
investments.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle19><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dnavy size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle19><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dnavy size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">E<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle19><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dnavy size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle19><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dnavy size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">PS:=20
Today is certainly not adding to my credibility=20
</SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle19><FONT =
face=3DWingdings=20
color=3Dnavy><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: Wingdings; mso-ascii-font-family: =
Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt; =
mso-char-type: symbol; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-char-type: symbol; mso-symbol-font-family: =
Wingdings">J</SPAN></SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN=20
class=3DEmailStyle19><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-ansi-font-size: =
12.0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle19><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT =
face=3DTahoma=20
color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Tahoma">-----Original=20
Message-----<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: =
bold">From:</SPAN></B>=20
Tom Worley [mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net]<BR><B><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent:</SPAN></B> Monday, April =
22, 2002=20
7:16 AM<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: =
bold">To:</SPAN></B>=20
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject:</SPAN></B> Re: =
[CANSLIM] S&P=20
500 forecast</SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT=20
face=3D"Times New Roman" size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">I don't=20
understand your reasoning for this, Ernie, but I would =
certainly=20
cheer 1238 on the S&P500 by then.</SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT=20
face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: =
black"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT=20
face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black">Tom Worley<BR><A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net">stkguru@bellsouth.net</A><BR>AIM:=20
TexWorley</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">-----=20
Original Message -----=20
<DIV style=3D"font-color: black"></SPAN></FONT><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT>
<P></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><B><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; =
FONT-FAMILY: Arial">From:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> =
<A=20
title=3DErnie.Hill@ElPaso.com=20
href=3D"mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com">Hill, Ernie</A>=20
</SPAN></FONT><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dblack =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><B><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; =
FONT-FAMILY: Arial">To:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> =
<A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">CANSLIM</A>=20
</SPAN></FONT><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dblack =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><B><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; =
FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Sent:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> =
Saturday,=20
April 20, 2002 10:08 PM</SPAN></FONT><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3Dblack=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><B><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; =
FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Subject:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> =
[CANSLIM]=20
S&P 500 forecast</SPAN></FONT><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3Dblack=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT=20
face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">At this=20
point in time I have two high probability projections for =
the next=20
<U>major turning point</U> in the S&P 500. The highest=20
probability is for a turning point on <st1:date =
Year=3D"2002" Day=3D"21"=20
Month=3D"5">May 21, 2002</st1:date> at a price level of =
1200. The=20
second highest probability is for a turning point on =
<st1:date=20
Year=3D"2002" Day=3D"22" Month=3D"5">May 22, 2002</st1:date> =
at a price=20
level of 1238. As we approach these dates one of these =
scenarios=20
should emerge as the most likely =
candidate.</SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">E</SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT=20
face=3D"Courier New" color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
'Courier New'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier =
New'"><BR><BR><CODE><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">*****************************************************************=
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email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso=20
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style=3D"mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: =
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