Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: Ian <ianstm@shaw.ca>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The Market
Date: Fri, 26 Apr 2002 18:54:44 -0700
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - --Boundary_(ID_GT3LiVsQt76dimnT4ezSEA) Content-type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT "something that seems self evident to me" I live in Canada where the love affair with tech seems to be every bit as strong as in the USA. The problem is, there are only a handful of big tech names here to choose from. Ever since late October 2000, when it took its first big haircut from $70 to $45, is has been 'self evident' to almost everyone around me that it was only a matter of time before NT was bid up high again - since telephones/Internet weren't going away, and all that insitutional money had to go somewhere. It keeps being 'self evident' to everyone ... every successive time it gets cut in half. I've been watching someone average down with each successive haircut - in stunned awe at their ability to rationalize away their massive losses - in spite of the fact that every time they bought it, my advice was sought first, and I recommended shorting it. IMHO, the only thing in the stock market that is 'self evident' is a strong trend that is already in place. Playing the contrarian against those trends has always been an incredibly high risk endeavour. Ian ----- Original Message ----- From: Chazmoore@aol.com To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Friday, April 26, 2002 5:19 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] The Market I belong to two investment clubs and both follow CANSLIM, which means we have done a lot of talking but not much investing for the last two years. We start our meetings with a brief discussion of the markets, and as you might expect, the message today is not much different from what it was a year ago. However, I would like to get some feedback on something that seems self evident to me. Clearly, the large cap stocks are doing poorly across the board while small/mid caps, and even Tom's favorites, the microcaps, are doing well in some sectors. The fact that the smaller stocks are doing well is now on every commentators tongue, and in every financial writers column. Meanwhile, the very large institutions stay on the sidelines because they really can't play the small fry. For the investor who has a ten or more year investment horizon, this looks like an opportunity to buy some truly great companies at bargain prices. I am talking about creating a core group of stocks as a foundation for a diversified portfolio. It seems to me that once the market has turned up significantly, we can expect a trillion or more dollars to pour into the market. The Institutions will not be buying the stocks we discuss on this board. They will be buying Wal-Mart, Citigroup, Exxon-Mobil, General Electric, and other big hitters. What do you think? I wish I could participate but at my age I don't even buy green bananas. Charley - --Boundary_(ID_GT3LiVsQt76dimnT4ezSEA) Content-type: text/html; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1" http-equiv=Content-Type> <META content="MSHTML 5.00.3314.2100" name=GENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=#ffffff> <DIV><FONT size=2>"something that seems self evident to me"</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=2>I live in Canada where the love affair with tech seems to be every bit as strong as in the USA. The problem is, there are only a handful of big tech names here to choose from. Ever since late October 2000, when it took its first big haircut from $70 to $45, is has been 'self evident' to almost everyone around me that it was only a matter of time before NT was bid up high again - since telephones/Internet weren't going away, and all that insitutional money had to go somewhere. It keeps being 'self evident' to everyone ... every successive time it gets cut in half.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=2>I've been watching someone average down with each successive haircut - in stunned awe at their ability to rationalize away their massive losses - in spite of the fact that every time they bought it, my advice was sought first, and I recommended shorting it.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=2>IMHO, the only thing in the stock market that is 'self evident' is a strong trend that is already in place. Playing the contrarian against those trends has always been an incredibly high risk endeavour.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=2>Ian</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px"> <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV> <DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A href="mailto:Chazmoore@aol.com" title=Chazmoore@aol.com>Chazmoore@aol.com</A> </DIV> <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com" title=canslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> </DIV> <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, April 26, 2002 5:19 PM</DIV> <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] The Market</DIV> <DIV><BR></DIV><FONT face=arial,helvetica><FONT size=2>I belong to two investment clubs and both follow CANSLIM, which means we have done a lot of talking but not much investing for the last two years. We start our meetings with a brief discussion of the markets, and as you might expect, the message today is not much different from what it was a year ago. However, I would like to get some feedback on something that seems self evident to me. <BR><BR>Clearly, the large cap stocks are doing poorly across the board while small/mid caps, and even Tom's favorites, the microcaps, are doing well in some sectors. The fact that the smaller stocks are doing well is now on every commentators tongue, and in every financial writers column. Meanwhile, the very large institutions stay on the sidelines because they really can't play the small fry. <BR><BR>For the investor who has a ten or more year investment horizon, this looks like an opportunity to buy some truly great companies at bargain prices. I am talking about creating a core group of stocks as a foundation for a diversified portfolio. It seems to me that once the market has turned up significantly, we can expect a trillion or more dollars to pour into the market. The Institutions will not be buying the stocks we discuss on this board. They will be buying Wal-Mart, Citigroup, Exxon-Mobil, General Electric, and other big hitters. <BR><BR>What do you think? <BR><BR>I wish I could participate but at my age I don't even buy green bananas. <BR><BR>Charley</FONT> </FONT></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML> - --Boundary_(ID_GT3LiVsQt76dimnT4ezSEA)-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
Next Article (by Author): Re: [CANSLIM] The Market "Ira Post"
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