Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: Simon Yang <simoninvestments@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The Market
Date: Sat, 27 Apr 2002 10:52:05 -0700 (PDT)
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- --0-150476861-1019929925=:75352 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii I am delighted that this group people share their thoughts on canslim and like to help other fellows. Very constructive for learning. I do appreciate Tom's sharing. I would not bother with big boys' focus on such big name stocks, these big boys play their own games and mostly under-perform SP500. The beauty of canslim strategy is to catch those big gainers of the market when the market is right. Just be patient for the coming bull market. Simon, simoninvestments.net Tom Worley <stkguru@bellsouth.net> wrote: I have to heartily agree with Ian. When you go value shopping, you are gambling on two things: you can correctly determine value; and the market will eventually agree with you. The biggest problem in buying a stock at a low is being sure it won't go any lower. And the laws of physics apply to stocks as well, a stock in motion (trending lower) tends to remain in motion (go even lower). I was stunned a while back when I read that AT&T was going to do a 5:1 REVERSE split. In over 40 years of investing, I cannot recall ever seeing a big cap name like T do a reverse split, didn't understand it until I saw the explanation that once they sell their wireless business (worth something like $10/share) the stock price will drop below $5, and not be of interest or buyable by institutions. Of course, my experience with reverse splits done to maintain price is that the price will continue to erode post split, and I would not be surprised if T is no exception. But without a doubt, there will still be buyers of the stock, now and post split, thinking it represents a cheap price. When a stock is undervalued by the marketplace, there is a reason. And the market has taught me time and time again to be humble, not to think I am smarter and can see value where the market discounts it. While I have had a few exceptional plays on "bottom fishing for value", for the most part they mostly worked out to a loss or, at best, stagnant capital tied up in a non performing stock while the market surged ahead. Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley----- Original Message ----- From: Ian To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Friday, April 26, 2002 9:54 PMSubject: Re: [CANSLIM] The Market "something that seems self evident to me" I live in Canada where the love affair with tech seems to be every bit as strong as in the USA. The problem is, there are only a handful of big tech names here to choose from. Ever since late October 2000, when it took its first big haircut from $70 to $45, is has been 'self evident' to almost everyone around me that it was only a matter of time before NT was bid up high again - since telephones/Internet weren't going away, and all that insitutional money had to go somewhere. It keeps being 'self evident' to everyone ... every successive time it gets cut in half. I've been watching someone average down with each successive haircut - in stunned awe at their ability to rationalize away their massive losses - in spite of the fact that every time they bought it, my advice was sought first, and I recommended shorting it. IMHO, the only thing in the stock market that is 'self evident' is a strong trend that is already in place. Playing the contrarian against those trends has always been an incredibly high risk endeavour. Ian ----- Original Message ----- From: Chazmoore@aol.com To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent: Friday, April 26, 2002 5:19 PMSubject: [CANSLIM] The Market I belong to two investment clubs and both follow CANSLIM, which means we have done a lot of talking but not much investing for the last two years. We start our meetings with a brief discussion of the markets, and as you might expect, the message today is not much different from what it was a year ago. However, I would like to get some feedback on something that seems self evident to me. Clearly, the large cap stocks are doing poorly across the board while small/mid caps, and even Tom's favorites, the microcaps, are doing well in some sectors. The fact that the smaller stocks are doing well is now on every commentators tongue, and in every financial writers column. Meanwhile, the very large institutions stay on the sidelines because they really can't play the small fry. For the investor who has a ten or more year investment horizon, this looks like an opportunity to buy some truly great companies at bargain prices. I am talking about creating a core group of stocks as a foundation for a diversified portfolio. It seems to me that once the market has turned up significantly, we can expect a trillion or more dollars to pour into the market. The Institutions will not be buying the stocks we discuss on this board. They will be buying Wal-Mart, Citigroup, Exxon-Mobil, General Electric, and other big hitters. What do you think? I wish I could participate but at my age I don't even buy green bananas. Charley - --------------------------------- Do You Yahoo!? Yahoo! Health - your guide to health and wellness - --0-150476861-1019929925=:75352 Content-Type: text/html; charset=us-ascii <P> I am delighted that this group people share their thoughts on canslim and like to help other fellows. Very constructive for learning. I do appreciate Tom's sharing. <P>I would not bother with big boys' focus on such big name stocks, these big boys play their own games and mostly under-perform SP500. The beauty of canslim strategy is to catch those big gainers of the market when the market is right. Just be patient for the coming bull market. <P>Simon, simoninvestments.net <P> <B><I>Tom Worley <stkguru@bellsouth.net></I></B> wrote: <BLOCKQUOTE style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #1010ff 2px solid"> <META content="MSHTML 6.00.2715.400" name=GENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> <DIV><FONT face=Arial>I have to heartily agree with Ian. When you go value shopping, you are gambling on two things: you can correctly determine value; and the market will eventually agree with you. The biggest problem in buying a stock at a low is being sure it won't go any lower. And the laws of physics apply to stocks as well, a stock in motion (trending lower) tends to remain in motion (go even lower).</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial>I was stunned a while back when I read that AT&T was going to do a 5:1 REVERSE split. In over 40 years of investing, I cannot recall ever seeing a big cap name like T do a reverse split, didn't understand it until I saw the explanation that once they sell their wireless business (worth something like $10/share) the stock price will drop below $5, and not be of interest or buyable by institutions. Of course, my experience with reverse splits done to maintain price is that the price will continue to erode post split, and I would not be surprised if T is no exception. But without a doubt, there will still be buyers of the stock, now and post split, thinking it represents a cheap price.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial>When a stock is undervalued by the marketplace, there is a reason. And the market has taught me time and time again to be humble, not to think I am smarter and can see value where the market discounts it. While I have had a few exceptional plays on "bottom fishing for value", for the most part they mostly worked out to a loss or, at best, stagnant capital tied up in a non performing stock while the market surged ahead.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Arial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV>Tom Worley<BR><A href="mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net">stkguru@bellsouth.net</A><BR>AIM: TexWorley</DIV> <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- <DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A title=ianstm@shaw.ca href="mailto:ianstm@shaw.ca">Ian</A> </DIV> <DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=canslim@lists.xmission.com href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> </DIV> <DIV><B>Sent:</B> Friday, April 26, 2002 9:54 PM</DIV> <DIV><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] The Market</DIV></DIV> <DIV><BR></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=2>"something that seems self evident to me"</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=2>I live in Canada where the love affair with tech seems to be every bit as strong as in the USA. The problem is, there are only a handful of big tech names here to choose from. Ever since late October 2000, when it took its first big haircut from $70 to $45, is has been 'self evident' to almost everyone around me that it was only a matter of time before NT was bid up high again - since telephones/Internet weren't going away, and all that insitutional money had to go somewhere. It keeps being 'self evident' to everyone ... every successive time it gets cut in half.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=2>I've been watching someone average down with each successive haircut - in stunned awe at their ability to rationalize away their massive losses - in spite of the fact that every time they bought it, my advice was sought first, and I recommended shorting it.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=2>IMHO, the only thing in the stock market that is 'self evident' is a strong trend that is already in place. Playing the contrarian against those trends has always been an incredibly high risk endeavour.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=2>Ian</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"> <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV> <DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A title=Chazmoore@aol.com href="mailto:Chazmoore@aol.com">Chazmoore@aol.com</A> </DIV> <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=canslim@lists.xmission.com href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> </DIV> <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, April 26, 2002 5:19 PM</DIV> <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] The Market</DIV> <DIV><BR></DIV><FONT face=arial,helvetica><FONT size=2>I belong to two investment clubs and both follow CANSLIM, which means we have done a lot of talking but not much investing for the last two years. We start our meetings with a brief discussion of the markets, and as you might expect, the message today is not much different from what it was a year ago. However, I would like to get some feedback on something that seems self evident to me. <BR><BR>Clearly, the large cap stocks are doing poorly across the board while small/mid caps, and even Tom's favorites, the microcaps, are doing well in some sectors. The fact that the smaller stocks are doing well is now on every commentators tongue, and in every financial writers column. Meanwhile, the very large institutions stay on the sidelines because they really can't play the small fry. <BR><BR>For the investor who has a ten or more year investment horizon, this looks like an opportunity to buy some truly great companies at bargain prices. I am talking about creating a core group of stocks as a foundation for a diversified portfolio. It seems to me that once the market has turned up significantly, we can expect a trillion or more dollars to pour into the market. The Institutions will not be buying the stocks we discuss on this board. They will be buying Wal-Mart, Citigroup, Exxon-Mobil, General Electric, and other big hitters. <BR><BR>What do you think? <BR><BR>I wish I could participate but at my age I don't even buy green bananas. <BR><BR>Charley</FONT> </FONT></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE><p><br><hr size=1><b>Do You Yahoo!?</b><br> <a href="http://rd.yahoo.com/welcome/*http://health.yahoo.com">Yahoo! Health</a> - your guide to health and wellness - --0-150476861-1019929925=:75352-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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