Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sun, 28 Apr 2002 11:38:49 -0400
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_02CD_01C1EEA9.43E50210 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_02CE_01C1EEA9.43E50210" - ------=_NextPart_001_02CE_01C1EEA9.43E50210 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Worst case scenario for Merrill Lynch from the NY investigations - $ = billion in fines and/or damages, that's BILLION, with a big capital =DF - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- ECONOMICS New home sales fell 3.1% to an annual rate of 878,000, slightly below = expectations, but following an upward revision on the February rate to = 906,000. Durable Goods - Feb's rate revised upward from 1.8% to 2.7%, while March = is reported as a drop of 0.6%. Expected was a rise of 0.5%. Worth noting = that both Feb and March reports did not include data on the = semiconductor industry. Commerce excluded it because most manufacturers = did not respond to the survey. GDP jumped 5.8% in the first quarter, well exceeding expectations of 5%, = and way ahead of 4th Qtr's 1.7% gain. This was the biggest gain for any = qtr since Q4 1999, and is believed reflecting the economic stimulus = efforts late last year. It is not considered sustainable, more = reflecting the "bounce" expected before economic growth slows to a more = sustainable level. Biggest single contributor to the GDP # was that = inventories shrank at a much slower rate. Inventory building is not seen = as yet kicking in, and will contribute strongly in future quarters. The = fall in business spending also appears to be bottoming, dropping only = $18 billion compared to last quarter's $47 billion decline. University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for April dropped to = 93.0, down from the initial reading, and well down from March's final = 95.7. Bottom line for Mr. Greenspan and FOMC - no rate hike at the May = meeting, it's almost a given. And the chances of a hike at the June = meeting look very low to me, barring significant changes in economic = data coming in. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABEES As always, I will mention specific basing formations, such as c&h, = double bottoms, or non-CANSLIM ones like LLUR (Lower Left Upper Right) = or flat line bases (marked as Bx where x indicates the number of weeks = IMO). Most stocks in this list will have both RS and EPS of 80 or = better, and be close to their 12 month high. I try to glance at the = earnings forecast, and eliminate any less than 20% for this year, but do = no other due diligence. The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend exceeds 300 for the = first time in more months than I can recall. This, to me, is a strong = indication of an improving "M" even while the indexes seem to be saying = just the opposite. AMWD - possible one week handle forming on a very short cup AMZ - B4+ AZO - right side of the cup possibly formed CAKE - B2+ CHBS - B3 GAP - B9 JNC - LLUR MCL - possible LLUR developing MCRI - B8, in my VR Fund PETM - LLUR PSTI - profit taking?, in my VR Fund PXXI - B6, in my VR fund RYAN - LLUR SVU - LLUR, with good earnings projected WFMI - short base, may be a pattern developing with grocery stores Happy Hunting, it's a short list this week, despite so many to look at. = Lots of stocks either very extended, or corrected on profit taking in = the past week. Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_02CE_01C1EEA9.43E50210 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2715.400" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Worst case scenario for Merrill Lynch from the = NY=20 investigations - $ billion<BR>in fines and/or damages, that's BILLION, = with a=20 big capital =DF</DIV> <DIV> <HR> </DIV> <DIV>ECONOMICS</DIV> <DIV>New home sales fell 3.1% to an annual rate of 878,000, slightly = below=20 expectations, but following an upward revision on the February rate to=20 906,000.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Durable Goods - Feb's rate revised upward from 1.8% to 2.7%, while = March is=20 reported as a drop of 0.6%. Expected was a rise of 0.5%. Worth noting = that both=20 Feb and March reports did not include data on the semiconductor = industry.=20 Commerce excluded it because most manufacturers did not respond to the=20 survey.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>GDP jumped 5.8% in the first quarter, well exceeding expectations = of 5%,=20 and way ahead of 4th Qtr's 1.7% gain. This was the biggest gain for any = qtr=20 since Q4 1999, and is believed reflecting the economic stimulus efforts = late=20 last year. It is not considered sustainable, more reflecting the = "bounce"=20 expected before economic growth slows to a more sustainable level. = Biggest=20 single contributor to the GDP # was that inventories shrank at a much = slower=20 rate. Inventory building is not seen as yet kicking in, and will = contribute=20 strongly in future quarters. The fall in business spending also appears = to be=20 bottoming, dropping only $18 billion compared to last quarter's $47 = billion=20 decline.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for April dropped = to=20 93.0, down from the initial reading, and well down from March's final=20 95.7.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Bottom line for Mr. Greenspan and FOMC - no rate hike at the May = meeting,=20 it's almost a given. And the chances of a hike at the June meeting look = very low=20 to me, barring significant changes in economic data coming in.</DIV> <DIV> <HR> </DIV> <DIV>WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABEES</DIV> <DIV>As always, I will mention specific basing formations, such as = c&h,=20 double bottoms, or non-CANSLIM ones like LLUR (Lower Left Upper Right) = or flat=20 line bases (marked as Bx where x indicates the number of weeks IMO). = Most stocks=20 in this list will have both RS and EPS of 80 or better, and be close to = their 12=20 month high. I try to glance at the earnings forecast, and eliminate any = less=20 than 20% for this year, but do no other due diligence.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend exceeds 300 = for the=20 first time in more months than I can recall. This, to me, is a strong = indication=20 of an improving "M" even while the indexes seem to be saying just the=20 opposite.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>AMWD - possible one week handle forming on a very short cup</DIV> <DIV>AMZ - B4+</DIV> <DIV>AZO - right side of the cup possibly formed</DIV> <DIV>CAKE - B2+</DIV> <DIV>CHBS - B3</DIV> <DIV>GAP - B9</DIV> <DIV>JNC - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>MCL - possible LLUR developing</DIV> <DIV>MCRI - B8, in my VR Fund</DIV> <DIV>PETM - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>PSTI - profit taking?, in my VR Fund</DIV> <DIV>PXXI - B6, in my VR fund</DIV> <DIV>RYAN - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>SVU - LLUR, with good earnings projected</DIV> <DIV>WFMI - short base, may be a pattern developing with grocery = stores</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Happy Hunting, it's a short list this week, despite so many to look = at.=20 Lots of stocks either very extended, or corrected on profit taking in = the past=20 week.<BR><BR><IMG alt=3D"" hspace=3D0=20 src=3D"cid:02cc01c1eeca$cae87140$9300a8c0@TOMSBOX" align=3Dbaseline = border=3D0><BR>Tom=20 Worley<BR></FONT><A href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net"><FONT=20 face=3DArial>stkguru@bellsouth.net</FONT></A><BR><FONT face=3DArial>AIM: = TexWorley<BR></DIV></FONT></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_001_02CE_01C1EEA9.43E50210-- - ------=_NextPart_000_02CD_01C1EEA9.43E50210 Content-Type: image/gif; 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