Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Hill, Ernie" <Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M where now? Correction Delete previous
Date: Tue, 30 Apr 2002 14:08:20 -0500
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Excellent point Dan concerning the .382 retracement, before we can get
excited longer term this resistance level would need to be taken out. Your
observation about the 50% retracement of the move from 9-21 to 1-4 at the
level of 1060.86 may also prove out to be the area from which the rally I am
expecting is launched.
Because of what I see from several of my indicators it looks like 1033.45 is
a higher probability for the turn than is 1060.86. However, 1060.86 is
certainly a valid support level from which the turn could occur. Ultimately
the market will tell us which level it wants to react from.
If the S&P closes today above 1078.96 this would be the confirmation
indicator of the turn that I usually look for. However, I would still be
skeptical that yesterday was the actual low. It just wouldn't make a
complete little technical package from my perspective.
The market can be very humbling. What started out as a very high probability
call for me has now become a very difficult turning point for me to get a
grip on.
E
- -----Original Message-----
From: DanC [mailto:danc@compuall.net]
Sent: Tuesday, April 30, 2002 1:40 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M where now? Correction Delete previous
Arrogant? An idiot? Not hardly. Your willingness to put your work out
there and let the Market do its humbling bump and
grind on you is admirable. I hope you keep posting. Predictions of price
and time are fraught with peril. I am more
comfortable in trying to figure price levels without the frame of precise
time.
Fibonacci ratios are interesting. The 1177 resistance level that coincides
with the 38.2 retracement from the 3-19 high to
the 9-21 low has been intact since 12-02, and seems to be rather
substantial. I don't put much importance (hope) in the
9-21 to 1-4, 61.8%, 1033.45 price as it is in the middle of the price rise
off the 9-21, and there is not much there to act as
support. On the other hand, the 1060.86, 50% retracement, coincides with
support built for a few days beginning 10-30.
If the 1061 does not act as support, I think there is a good opportunity for
the index to revisit the 9-21 low. It is close to
support, now, at 1074, (not a Fib number) that may be of importance. And if
it does hold, there is the possibility we will
stay within this wide trading range bordered by 1177 and 1074 for some time
to come.
Dan
"Hill, Ernie" wrote:
Hi Group,
When I made my first market forecast to the group back in March part of the
reason I chose to make a forecast then was because I had a very reliable
forecast to make. Because of the high probability that I saw occurring in
the market I chose to make a very precise forecast for maximum effect. At
that time I said the market would bottom in the 1070 to 1075 range on the
S&P on 4-17-02. I had a high degree of confidence that the market would turn
within two days of that date and very close to my projected price range.
First the market gave me a head fake with a false turn confirmation, now it
has blown up my forecast with today's price action. First the S&P has set a
new low for the move, which will now put the eventual turning point outside
the maximum range predicted by my model. In addition to that it has
surpassed the lowest price level that I had projected for the move.
So what does it all mean? For some of you it proves that I am an idiot that
got his just due for being arrogant enough to think that he could predict
the market. I can accept that criticism; however, from my point of view my
missed forecast gives hints to the longer term picture for the rest of the
year. For those of you who are still reading here is what I see as the most
likely scenario going forward and the implications of the market dropping
through and past my projected turning point.
First of all the S&P will likely drop to an even lower support level before
the turn is eventually made. This support level will continue to drop
slightly with each passing day. For tomorrow that level will be 1035.5, if
the S&P drops to that level by tomorrow then the market will likely turn
from there. Going back to the market low on 9-21-01 the S&P put in a low of
944.75 it then rose to a high of 1176.97 on 1-7-02. 61.8% of that move would
be 143.51 points. 61.8% is a key Fibonacci ratio where corrections often
find support. Subtracting 143.51 points from the market high of 1176.97
yields a price level of 1033.46. On May 2, 2002 my projected support level
for the S&P is 1033.5. Will 5-2-02 be the day this market actually changes
trend at least briefly? We'll see.
The longer term implications are that the ensuing rally will likely be
briefer than previously expected and certainly have a lower price target,
maybe even below 1176.97 the current high for the year. If the rally that
follows this current decline fails to exceed the current high for the year
then we may be looking at a retest of the September lows later in the year.
E
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<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span style=
=3D'font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Excellent point Dan concerning the .382
retracement, before we can get excited longer term this resistance level wo=
uld
need to be taken out. Your observation about the 50% retracement of the move
from 9-21 to 1-4 at the level of 1060.86 may also prove out to be the area =
from
which the rally I am expecting is launched.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span style=
=3D'font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span style=
=3D'font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Because of what I see from several of =
my
indicators it looks like 1033.45 is a higher probability for the turn than =
is 1060.86.
However, 1060.86 is certainly a valid support level from which the turn cou=
ld
occur. Ultimately the market will tell us which level it wants to react fro=
m.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span style=
=3D'font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span style=
=3D'font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>If the S&P closes today above 1078=
.96
this would be the confirmation indicator of the turn that I usually look fo=
r. However,
I would still be skeptical that yesterday was the actual low. It just would=
n't
make a complete little technical package from my perspective.<o:p></o:p></s=
pan></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span style=
=3D'font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span style=
=3D'font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>The market can be very humbling. What
started out as a very high probability call for me has now become a very
difficult turning point for me to get a grip on.<o:p></o:p></span></font></=
p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span style=
=3D'font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span style=
=3D'font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>E<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span style=
=3D'font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 face=3DTahom=
a><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'>-----Original Message-----<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>From:</span></b> DanC
[mailto:danc@compuall.net] <br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> Tuesday, April 30, 200=
2 1:40
AM<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b> canslim@lists.xmission.c=
om<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> Re: [CANSLIM] M whe=
re
now? Correction Delete previous</span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 face=3D"Time=
s New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 face=3D"Time=
s New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'>Arrogant? An idiot? Not hardly. =
; Your
willingness to put your work out there and let the Market do its humbling b=
ump
and <br>
grind on you is admirable. I hope you keep posting. Predictions=
of
price and time are fraught with peril. I am more <br>
comfortable in trying to figure price levels without the frame of precise t=
ime.
<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 face=3D"Times New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'>Fibonacci ratios are interesting. The 1177
resistance level that coincides with the 38.2 retracement from the 3-19 hig=
h to
<br>
the 9-21 low has been intact since 12-02, and seems to be rather
substantial. I don't put much importance (hope) in the <br>
9-21 to 1-4, 61.8%, 1033.45 price as it is in the middle of the price
rise off the 9-21, and there is not much there to act as <br>
support. On the other hand, the 1060.86, 50% retracement, coincides w=
ith
support built for a few days beginning 10-30. <br>
If the 1061 does not act as support, I think there is a good opportunity for
the index to revisit the 9-21 low. It is close to <br>
support, now, at 1074, (not a Fib number) that may be of importance. =
And
if it does hold, there is the possibility we will <br>
stay within this wide trading range bordered by 1177 and 1074 for some time=
to
come. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 face=3D"Times New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'>Dan <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 face=3D"Times New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'>"Hill, Ernie" wrote: <o:p></o:p></span=
></font></p>
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<div>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 face=3D"Time=
s New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'>Hi Group,<u1:p></u1:p><o:p></o:p></span></font><=
/p>
</div>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 face=3D"Time=
s New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'><u1:p></u1:p>When I made my first market forecas=
t to
the group back in March part of the reason I chose to make a forecast then =
was
because I had a very reliable forecast to make. Because of the high probabi=
lity
that I saw occurring in the market I chose to make a very precise forecast =
for
maximum effect. At that time I said the market would bottom in the 1070 to =
1075
range on the S&P on <st1:date Month=3D"4" Day=3D"17" Year=3D"2002"=
>4-17-02</st1:date>.
I had a high degree of confidence that the market would turn within two day=
s of
that date and very close to my projected price range.<u1:p></u1:p> <o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 face=3D"Time=
s New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'><u1:p></u1:p>First the market gave me a head fak=
e with
a false turn confirmation, now it has blown up my forecast with today's pri=
ce
action. First the S&P has set a new low for the move, which will now put
the eventual turning point outside the maximum range predicted by my model.=
In
addition to that it has surpassed the lowest price level that I had project=
ed
for the move.<u1:p></u1:p> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 face=3D"Time=
s New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'><u1:p></u1:p>So what does it all mean? For some =
of you
it proves that I am an idiot that got his just due for being arrogant enoug=
h to
think that he could predict the market. I can accept that criticism; howeve=
r,
from my point of view my missed forecast gives hints to the longer term pic=
ture
for the rest of the year. For those of you who are still reading here is wh=
at I
see as the most likely scenario going forward and the implications of the
market dropping through and past my projected turning point.<u1:p></u1:p> <=
o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 face=3D"Time=
s New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'><u1:p></u1:p>First of all the S&P will likel=
y drop
to an even lower support level before the turn is eventually made. This sup=
port
level will continue to drop slightly with each passing day. For tomorrow th=
at
level will be 1035.5, if the S&P drops to that level by tomorrow then t=
he
market will likely turn from there. Going back to the market low on <s=
t1:date Month=3D"9" Day=3D"21" Year=3D"2001">9-21-01</st1:date>
the S&P put in a low of 944.75 it then rose to a high of 1176.97 on&nbs=
p;<st1:date Month=3D"1" Day=3D"7" Year=3D"2002">1-7-02</st1:date>.
61.8% of that move would be 143.51 points. 61.8% is a key Fibonacci ratio w=
here
corrections often find support. Subtracting 143.51 points from the market h=
igh
of 1176.97 yields a price level of 1033.46. On <st1:date Month=3D"5" D=
ay=3D"2" Year=3D"2002">May
2, 2002</st1:date> my projected support level for the S&P is 1033.5. Wi=
ll <st1:date Month=3D"5" Day=3D"2" Year=3D"2002">5-2-02</st1:date>
be the day this market actually changes trend at least briefly? We'll see.<=
u1:p></u1:p>
<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 face=3D"Time=
s New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'><u1:p></u1:p>The longer term implications are th=
at the
ensuing rally will likely be briefer than previously expected and certainly
have a lower price target, maybe even below 1176.97 the current high for the
year. If the rally that follows this current decline fails to exceed the
current high for the year then we may be looking at a retest of the Septemb=
er
lows later in the year.<u1:p></u1:p> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 face=3D"Time=
s New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'><u1:p></u1:p>E<u1:p></u1:p> <o:p></o:p></span></=
font></p>
<p style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><tt><font size=3D3 face=3D"Courier New"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0=
pt'><u1:p></u1:p>**********************************************************=
********</span></font></tt>
<br>
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- -bidi-font-size:
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