Re: [CANSLIM] PMFG

From: Harvey Brion <hbrion@ieee.org>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PMFG
Date: Tue, 30 Apr 2002 12:17:50 -0700

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RS only 50; GRS 49.  Rest of the numbers look pretty good.  REALLY thinly traded
(ADV 5400).  Still in base, so no pivot point yet.  If I were a "base buyer"
(which I'm not) I'd try to get in at $16; that keeps me in at 15.  In this
market, I like to buy the pullback after breakout.  (There always seems to be
one.)

Apparently no analysts to provide a Q4 estimate (another reason I don't buy) but
it will be a tough comparison with the $.99 earned in Q4 of FY01.  However,
they've already earned $.94 through the first 3 quarters of FY02 and if they
only hit their average of $.31 in Q4, they'll have FY-FY growth of
1.25/1.03=21%.  Continuing with this scenario (Q4 EPS of $.31) it's interesting
to note that with 21% growth in EPS for FY02,  their trailing P/E would actually
INCREASE from 8.8 to 13.6 because the high Q4 number of last FY drops out of the
P/E calculation.

This looks like a risky microcap (is that redundant?) value play.  I agree it's
interesting to look at.

"J. Lobatto" wrote:

> Ian,
>
> PMFG looks interesting. Taking a look at the chart which is an extended
> downward sloping base, where would you set the pivot point; back at the July
> high of 23.75 or sometime after that at a lower price?
>
> Jon
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Ian" <ianstm@shaw.ca>
> To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> Sent: Tuesday, April 30, 2002 12:28 PM
> Subject: [CANSLIM] PMFG
>
> > Hi all:
> >
> > I thought I would throw out PMFG as a CANSLIM watchlist candidate, based
> on
> > the strength of their historical and current revenue and EPS growth. They
> > announced earnings today -
> > http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/020430/datu033_1.html - another strong Q,
> > showing 58% revenue growth, and 167% income growth, and $0.38 EPS. The
> > caveat in todays report is the declining backlog (69 M to 63M) from last
> Q.
> >
> > They are a 'traditional' CANSLIM candidate, in that there are just
> 3,000,000
> > shares outstanding. The 2-year weekly chart is starting to look
> > interesting - the daily chart appears random, as the stock is highly
> > illiquid, volatile and subject to excessive spreads.
> >
> > IF AND ONLY IF a significant (20000+) change in average daily volume is
> > sustained, then it would meet all of my personal cirteria as an
> exceptional
> > CANSLIM candidate. But that is a big 'IF' - it really needs a quantum
> change
> > in volume - right now, it could easily collapse with one block seller.
> >
> > PMFG is one to add to the watchlist - looking for a sustained daily volume
> > increase, and a price move up through resistance levels in the $18-$23
> area.
> >
> >
> > Ian
> >
> >
> >
> >
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