Re: [CANSLIM] Today's IBD "Big Picture" comments...

From: Ian <ianstm@shaw.ca>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Today's IBD "Big Picture" comments...
Date: Wed, 01 May 2002 12:34:39 -0700

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 "Worden Note Worth Noting (4/30/02)"


"Liars!

Last Wednesday I reminded you of something I have been referring to every
week or two for some time: "Can I think of anything good to tell you? Yes.
Advances outnumber declines in Industry Groups spanning 30-days, 6-months,
9-months, and one year." Since then Groups advancing during the last 30-days
have fallen marginally behind those declining, 133 to 105. But during the
last six months advancing groups bury declining groups, 194 to 44. Take a
look at charts for the SP-500 and the Nasdaq Composite (COMPQX). In each
case the market average is approximately unchanged for that period. The
averages are lying to us. I can't remember ever seeing such a marked
dichotomy between the major averages and the breadth of the market. An
overwhelming number of stocks have advanced over the past six months. The
major averages give no hint of this. Now let's look at the last 12 months.
This is even a bigger lie. The SP-500 is down about 14 percent and the
Nasdaq about 23 percent. And yet, 145 groups have advanced while 93 have
declined. Fifty-five percent more groups have advanced over the past year
than have declined. And yet the major averages tell us the direction has
been decisively down. What does it mean and what do we do about it?
Hopefully, just what we have been doing. Playing it as a market of stocks
and not get into a hand-wringing mode over the antics of the averages. This
was a good day. I liked the volume increases. Are the averages turning? I
don't know, but I doubt it." - From Don Worden of TC2000 fame.


It is possible for one to apply common sense to this: The bubble sent the
index stocks to valuations that were impossible to grow into in our
lifetime. The excesses cannot be unwound all at once, and during the bear
market rallies in the indexes, the rest of the universe uses that selling
reprieve to make healthy advances. Two steps forward, one step back, so to
speak.


Ian




- ----- Original Message -----
From: Dan Forant <dforant1@nycap.rr.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Wednesday, May 01, 2002 9:47 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Today's IBD "Big Picture" comments...


> Wow, this is really big news. IBD's been jerking chains for a long time
now.
>
> DanF
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Bill Triffet" <btriffet@earthlink.net>
> To: "canslim" <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> Sent: Wednesday, May 01, 2002 12:12 PM
> Subject: [CANSLIM] Today's IBD "Big Picture" comments...
>
>
> > Well friends, it seems that today's IBD confirms what I've thought about
> the
> > M in canslim - It's not necessarily based on the readings of the three
> major
> > market indexes ( a big departure from HTMMIS).
> >
> > I'm paraphrasing the last three paragraphs of "The Big Picture"(there
are
> > stiff copyright disclaimers at IBD):
> >
> > It will take a few days to see if the rotation BACK into the Dow, Naz,
and
> > S&P is valid. There should be a big move in heavier volume by the end of
> the
> > week to confirm it.
> >
> > It goes on to say it's a "nonissue" for growth investors since small and
> > mid-cap stocks along with medical, consumer and defense are doing well
> > despite the big averages. If they hold up, it says, the major averages
> could
> > improve.
> >
> > Also mentions "careful trading" with tight loss cutting is key.
> >
> > My point? IMHO, IBD is marketed for many types of investors. Pure
canslim
> > (if there is such a thing) is just one of them.
> >
> > I think perhaps it's time for me to look at growth investing with a
> canslim
> > approach. I'm starting to see several here have done this to great
success
> > (though with very close watching). Including things such as a lower but
> > advancing RS as opposed to just a high rating and not be afraid to jump
> into
> > stocks in an upwards trending sector though the market is flat or down
IF
> > they have good fundies.
> >
> > Several times this and last year I saw stocks and groups moving ahead
but
> > stayed out due to the major indexes downward trend. Comments?
> >
> > Btw, for Fred, it suggests there's heavy distribution out of gold and
> > precious metals by investors.
> >
> > Bill Triffet
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > -
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> >
>
>
> -
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