Re: [CANSLIM] Today's IBD "Big Picture" comments...

From: "Bill Triffet" <btriffet@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Today's IBD "Big Picture" comments...
Date: Wed, 1 May 2002 12:57:43 -0700

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You hit the nail on the head. It's hard to believe so many non major index
stocks have moved ahead to create this atmosphere. It says a lot about what
the indexes are representing now. Time to reshuffle the deck?

- -Bill
- ----- Original Message -----
From: "Ian" <ianstm@shaw.ca>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Wednesday, May 01, 2002 12:34 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Today's IBD "Big Picture" comments...


> "Worden Note Worth Noting (4/30/02)"
>
>
> "Liars!
>
> Last Wednesday I reminded you of something I have been referring to every
> week or two for some time: "Can I think of anything good to tell you? Yes.
> Advances outnumber declines in Industry Groups spanning 30-days, 6-months,
> 9-months, and one year." Since then Groups advancing during the last
30-days
> have fallen marginally behind those declining, 133 to 105. But during the
> last six months advancing groups bury declining groups, 194 to 44. Take a
> look at charts for the SP-500 and the Nasdaq Composite (COMPQX). In each
> case the market average is approximately unchanged for that period. The
> averages are lying to us. I can't remember ever seeing such a marked
> dichotomy between the major averages and the breadth of the market. An
> overwhelming number of stocks have advanced over the past six months. The
> major averages give no hint of this. Now let's look at the last 12 months.
> This is even a bigger lie. The SP-500 is down about 14 percent and the
> Nasdaq about 23 percent. And yet, 145 groups have advanced while 93 have
> declined. Fifty-five percent more groups have advanced over the past year
> than have declined. And yet the major averages tell us the direction has
> been decisively down. What does it mean and what do we do about it?
> Hopefully, just what we have been doing. Playing it as a market of stocks
> and not get into a hand-wringing mode over the antics of the averages.
This
> was a good day. I liked the volume increases. Are the averages turning? I
> don't know, but I doubt it." - From Don Worden of TC2000 fame.
>
>
> It is possible for one to apply common sense to this: The bubble sent the
> index stocks to valuations that were impossible to grow into in our
> lifetime. The excesses cannot be unwound all at once, and during the bear
> market rallies in the indexes, the rest of the universe uses that selling
> reprieve to make healthy advances. Two steps forward, one step back, so to
> speak.
>
>
> Ian
>
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Dan Forant <dforant1@nycap.rr.com>
> To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> Sent: Wednesday, May 01, 2002 9:47 AM
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Today's IBD "Big Picture" comments...
>
>
> > Wow, this is really big news. IBD's been jerking chains for a long time
> now.
> >
> > DanF
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Bill Triffet" <btriffet@earthlink.net>
> > To: "canslim" <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> > Sent: Wednesday, May 01, 2002 12:12 PM
> > Subject: [CANSLIM] Today's IBD "Big Picture" comments...
> >
> >
> > > Well friends, it seems that today's IBD confirms what I've thought
about
> > the
> > > M in canslim - It's not necessarily based on the readings of the three
> > major
> > > market indexes ( a big departure from HTMMIS).
> > >
> > > I'm paraphrasing the last three paragraphs of "The Big Picture"(there
> are
> > > stiff copyright disclaimers at IBD):
> > >
> > > It will take a few days to see if the rotation BACK into the Dow, Naz,
> and
> > > S&P is valid. There should be a big move in heavier volume by the end
of
> > the
> > > week to confirm it.
> > >
> > > It goes on to say it's a "nonissue" for growth investors since small
and
> > > mid-cap stocks along with medical, consumer and defense are doing well
> > > despite the big averages. If they hold up, it says, the major averages
> > could
> > > improve.
> > >
> > > Also mentions "careful trading" with tight loss cutting is key.
> > >
> > > My point? IMHO, IBD is marketed for many types of investors. Pure
> canslim
> > > (if there is such a thing) is just one of them.
> > >
> > > I think perhaps it's time for me to look at growth investing with a
> > canslim
> > > approach. I'm starting to see several here have done this to great
> success
> > > (though with very close watching). Including things such as a lower
but
> > > advancing RS as opposed to just a high rating and not be afraid to
jump
> > into
> > > stocks in an upwards trending sector though the market is flat or down
> IF
> > > they have good fundies.
> > >
> > > Several times this and last year I saw stocks and groups moving ahead
> but
> > > stayed out due to the major indexes downward trend. Comments?
> > >
> > > Btw, for Fred, it suggests there's heavy distribution out of gold and
> > > precious metals by investors.
> > >
> > > Bill Triffet
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > -
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> > >
> >
> >
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>
>
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