Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM for sourcing shorts

From: Ian <ianstm@shaw.ca>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM for sourcing shorts
Date: Thu, 02 May 2002 07:52:14 -0700

Next Article (by Author): Re: [CANSLIM] Today's IBD "Big Picture" comments... Ian
Previous Article (by Author): Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM for sourcing shorts Eric Jaenike
Top of Thread: Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM for sourcing shorts Eric Jaenike
Next in Thread: Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM for sourcing shorts Eric Jaenike
Articles sorted by: [Date] [Author] [Subject]

Yup. I was just stopped out for a loss - I will try again later at a
psychological resistance level. These kind of trades, from a probability
standpoint, are expected to be losers. But, IMHO, from an expected value
standpoint, they are winners.

I don't buy lottery tickets, because the chance of winning $1,000,000 for my
$1, is just 1 in 13,000,000. However, I would buy them if my chance of
winning $13,000,000 for my $1, was 1 in 1,000,000. Even though the odds
would be stacked against me for my lifetime, the expected value still makes
it a good bet.

I use hard stops with shorts, and they tend to be very close to my entry
point, ensuring that I lose very small percentages when I am wrong. Recently
I was stopped out of CSTR 3 different times before finally succeeding - I
needed to be more patient with the chart - the low volume reversal on the
26th was a much stronger indicator of weakness than my earlier entry points.
I'll look for something similar with PFCB.

Ian

- ----- Original Message -----
From: J. Lobatto <jlobatto@nyc.rr.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Wednesday, May 01, 2002 2:20 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM for sourcing shorts


> Sounds interesting. One thing I noticed is that there seems to be a short
> interest of about ten days trading. This is pretty high, so obviously many
> folks concur with your evaluation. However, if it does break out to a new
> high and these short sellers decide to cover, it could be a nasty run to
the
> upside. I've also noticed in the past that high short interest often
> coincides with volatile whipsaw moves. In any case... good luck.
>
> Jon
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Ian" <ianstm@shaw.ca>
> To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> Sent: Wednesday, May 01, 2002 5:16 PM
> Subject: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM for sourcing shorts
>
>
> > Often, I keep a small list of 'CANSLIM' darlings as potential short
> > candidates - usually things with average balance sheets and huge
> valuations.
> > One of those that has been on my list for a while is PFCB.
> >
> > In the last couple of weeks, PFCB has had 4 exceptional volume days
> without
> > any meaningful advance - even though each day was 'green'. IMHO, that is
> the
> > distribution that I have been looking for. I have a short here in the
high
> > $72's, that I will stop out if it goes through $74.50 from here.
> >
> > WIth a split upcoming, it is easily possible that I get stopped out -
but
> I
> > am risking just 1 1/2 points, and my reward could be 20 points +.  PFCB
> > trades at what I consider an extremely high valuation, given their cash
> > generation, in a capital intensive business. If I had been long the
stock,
> I
> > would have taken the recent advanceless volume days as sell signals.
> >
> >
> > We'll see.
> >
> > Ian
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > -
> > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
> > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
> > -"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not use quotes in your email.
>
>
> -
> -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
> -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
> -"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not use quotes in your email.


- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not use quotes in your email.

Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.