RE: [CANSLIM] M measured by the S&P 500 index

From: "Hill, Ernie" <Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M measured by the S&P 500 index
Date: Tue, 7 May 2002 23:15:55 -0500
Next Article (by Date): RE: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM Evaluator Updates "Mike Gibbons"
Previous Article (by Date): Re: [CANSLIM] PE measurements "oaktoad"
Top of Thread: RE: [CANSLIM] M measured by the S&P 500 index "Hill, Ernie"
Articles sorted by: [Date] [Author] [Subject]
Someone has ask me off list if I have tried going back over my analysis that
failed, and look for the weight of evidence to point in the opposite
direction?
My answer was yes I have, and I stand by my original analysis as being the
highest probable outcome. The problem is that investor psychology is at an
extreme right now, which like unexpected news can skew the probabilities in
ways that are very difficult to account for.
Hopefully investor psychology will soon return to a more "normal" state, and
my methodology will become a little more accurate.
E


 -----Original Message-----
From: 	Hill, Ernie  
Sent:	Tuesday, May 07, 2002 10:05 PM
To:	'canslim@lists.xmission.com'
Subject:	RE: [CANSLIM] M measured by the S&P 500 index

Awfully quite on the list tonight.

Well it looks like the S&P did more than just undercut last weeks low by
just a little bit!

M has now trashed the projections that I made on Friday. Two false turn
signals and the low still may not be in. If it were not for the
encouragement of some of you on this list I would refuse to humiliate myself
further.

M will do as M wants. Regardless of what I see the probabilities to be. None
the less I will stick my neck out there again and say that if today was not
the low of the move then it is highly likely that it will occur within the
next four trading days. As for the target price I dare not venture a guess
(only because I don't have any high probability targets).

What M does reveal to me by it's actions is that there is tremendous
weakness and the rally that I have been anticipating could be much shorter
and weaker than I had been expecting.

I will keep you posted.

E


 -----Original Message-----
From: 	Hill, Ernie  
Sent:	Saturday, May 04, 2002 10:29 PM
To:	canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject:	[CANSLIM] M measured by the S&P 500 index

Early next week we may challenge the low made on 4-30 and possibly even
undercut it slightly before moving up. The time window for the next
significant high turning point is from 5-16 to 5-28. There are several valid
price targets and high probability dates for those targets. I will give you
these dates and price targets that I see in my analysis. As the market
approaches these dates and targets we can determine the actual turning point
by how the market reacts to these possibilities.

The highest probability that I see is a target price of 1121 occurring on
5-16. Here are the rest of my targets in order of highest probability.

5-17	 1137
5-22	1124
5-16	1104
5-22    In the range of 1140 to 1155
And the smallest probability 5-28 at 1216.

I realize there are several targets and dates listed here but as the market
gets closer to the actual turning point I will be able to narrow down the
possibilities. The important thing is that a market turn should be expected
very near one of these dates and price levels. I could get cute like last
time and try to pick one specific target, and probably be humbled again.

You may be asking so what is the application to CANSLIM? Simply this, for
most CANSLIM investors the coming price bounce in the market will very
likely be too short and not strong enough for you to attempt to make a buy.
However, for the nimble this short and likely weak bounce could give us some
nice profits in some of the fast growing small caps where we have found some
success lately.

GOOD LUCK,
E


******************************************************************
This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso 
Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the 
use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. 
If you have received this email in error please notify the 
sender.
******************************************************************

- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not use quotes in your email.


******************************************************************
This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso 
Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the 
use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. 
If you have received this email in error please notify the 
sender.
******************************************************************

- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not use quotes in your email.


******************************************************************
This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso 
Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the 
use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. 
If you have received this email in error please notify the 
sender.
******************************************************************

- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not use quotes in your email.
Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.