Re: [CANSLIM] M measured by the S&P 500 index

From: DanC <danc@compuall.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M measured by the S&P 500 index
Date: Tue, 07 May 2002 23:47:39 -0700
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Somehow, I believe, investor psychology has to be a component, vix, vin. cot, my
extreme bearish bias, ?.

Ursusly,

Dan

"Hill, Ernie" wrote:

> Someone has ask me off list if I have tried going back over my analysis that
> failed, and look for the weight of evidence to point in the opposite
> direction?
> My answer was yes I have, and I stand by my original analysis as being the
> highest probable outcome. The problem is that investor psychology is at an
> extreme right now, which like unexpected news can skew the probabilities in
> ways that are very difficult to account for.
> Hopefully investor psychology will soon return to a more "normal" state, and
> my methodology will become a little more accurate.
> E
>
>  -----Original Message-----
> From:   Hill, Ernie
> Sent:   Tuesday, May 07, 2002 10:05 PM
> To:     'canslim@lists.xmission.com'
> Subject:        RE: [CANSLIM] M measured by the S&P 500 index
>
> Awfully quite on the list tonight.
>
> Well it looks like the S&P did more than just undercut last weeks low by
> just a little bit!
>
> M has now trashed the projections that I made on Friday. Two false turn
> signals and the low still may not be in. If it were not for the
> encouragement of some of you on this list I would refuse to humiliate myself
> further.
>
> M will do as M wants. Regardless of what I see the probabilities to be. None
> the less I will stick my neck out there again and say that if today was not
> the low of the move then it is highly likely that it will occur within the
> next four trading days. As for the target price I dare not venture a guess
> (only because I don't have any high probability targets).
>
> What M does reveal to me by it's actions is that there is tremendous
> weakness and the rally that I have been anticipating could be much shorter
> and weaker than I had been expecting.
>
> I will keep you posted.
>
> E
>
>  -----Original Message-----
> From:   Hill, Ernie
> Sent:   Saturday, May 04, 2002 10:29 PM
> To:     canslim@lists.xmission.com
> Subject:        [CANSLIM] M measured by the S&P 500 index
>
> Early next week we may challenge the low made on 4-30 and possibly even
> undercut it slightly before moving up. The time window for the next
> significant high turning point is from 5-16 to 5-28. There are several valid
> price targets and high probability dates for those targets. I will give you
> these dates and price targets that I see in my analysis. As the market
> approaches these dates and targets we can determine the actual turning point
> by how the market reacts to these possibilities.
>
> The highest probability that I see is a target price of 1121 occurring on
> 5-16. Here are the rest of my targets in order of highest probability.
>
> 5-17     1137
> 5-22    1124
> 5-16    1104
> 5-22    In the range of 1140 to 1155
> And the smallest probability 5-28 at 1216.
>
> I realize there are several targets and dates listed here but as the market
> gets closer to the actual turning point I will be able to narrow down the
> possibilities. The important thing is that a market turn should be expected
> very near one of these dates and price levels. I could get cute like last
> time and try to pick one specific target, and probably be humbled again.
>
> You may be asking so what is the application to CANSLIM? Simply this, for
> most CANSLIM investors the coming price bounce in the market will very
> likely be too short and not strong enough for you to attempt to make a buy.
> However, for the nimble this short and likely weak bounce could give us some
> nice profits in some of the fast growing small caps where we have found some
> success lately.
>
> GOOD LUCK,
> E
>
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