Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM for sourcing shorts

From: Ian <ianstm@shaw.ca>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM for sourcing shorts
Date: Wed, 08 May 2002 07:53:29 -0700
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Tried again when I saw it hitting a new high on anemic volume this morning.
It was near the psychological $40 barrier. I also think that some of these
recent playthings will be rotated out of now. It provides another nice close
stop in the $39.40 range now. We'll see.

Ian




- ----- Original Message -----
From: Ian <ianstm@shaw.ca>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Thursday, May 02, 2002 7:52 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM for sourcing shorts


> Yup. I was just stopped out for a loss - I will try again later at a
> psychological resistance level. These kind of trades, from a probability
> standpoint, are expected to be losers. But, IMHO, from an expected value
> standpoint, they are winners.
>
> I don't buy lottery tickets, because the chance of winning $1,000,000 for
my
> $1, is just 1 in 13,000,000. However, I would buy them if my chance of
> winning $13,000,000 for my $1, was 1 in 1,000,000. Even though the odds
> would be stacked against me for my lifetime, the expected value still
makes
> it a good bet.
>
> I use hard stops with shorts, and they tend to be very close to my entry
> point, ensuring that I lose very small percentages when I am wrong.
Recently
> I was stopped out of CSTR 3 different times before finally succeeding - I
> needed to be more patient with the chart - the low volume reversal on the
> 26th was a much stronger indicator of weakness than my earlier entry
points.
> I'll look for something similar with PFCB.
>
> Ian
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: J. Lobatto <jlobatto@nyc.rr.com>
> To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> Sent: Wednesday, May 01, 2002 2:20 PM
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM for sourcing shorts
>
>
> > Sounds interesting. One thing I noticed is that there seems to be a
short
> > interest of about ten days trading. This is pretty high, so obviously
many
> > folks concur with your evaluation. However, if it does break out to a
new
> > high and these short sellers decide to cover, it could be a nasty run to
> the
> > upside. I've also noticed in the past that high short interest often
> > coincides with volatile whipsaw moves. In any case... good luck.
> >
> > Jon
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Ian" <ianstm@shaw.ca>
> > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> > Sent: Wednesday, May 01, 2002 5:16 PM
> > Subject: [CANSLIM] CANSLIM for sourcing shorts
> >
> >
> > > Often, I keep a small list of 'CANSLIM' darlings as potential short
> > > candidates - usually things with average balance sheets and huge
> > valuations.
> > > One of those that has been on my list for a while is PFCB.
> > >
> > > In the last couple of weeks, PFCB has had 4 exceptional volume days
> > without
> > > any meaningful advance - even though each day was 'green'. IMHO, that
is
> > the
> > > distribution that I have been looking for. I have a short here in the
> high
> > > $72's, that I will stop out if it goes through $74.50 from here.
> > >
> > > WIth a split upcoming, it is easily possible that I get stopped out -
> but
> > I
> > > am risking just 1 1/2 points, and my reward could be 20 points +.
PFCB
> > > trades at what I consider an extremely high valuation, given their
cash
> > > generation, in a capital intensive business. If I had been long the
> stock,
> > I
> > > would have taken the recent advanceless volume days as sell signals.
> > >
> > >
> > > We'll see.
> > >
> > > Ian
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > -
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