Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: Ian <ianstm@shaw.ca>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Curious in Florida
Date: Wed, 08 May 2002 09:01:13 -0700
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - --Boundary_(ID_s+hJpVi+vDxBxGWGMNsNIQ) Content-type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT MessageDuke: I'll sit firmly on the fence on this one - I would look at each stock on an individual basis, and try to guess whether or not it was a 'temporary plaything' while the market was correcting past excesses, or if it will be a clear economic winner going forward. I would probably base that judgement on whether the forward growth justifies the current multiples on a historic basis. I think a lot of stocks were run up even though they have anemic growth, while others will truly be leaders of the next phase. However, the bottom line should be that the charts will tell you which is which, going forward. DOoyou have any objections to sharing the list with the group? Ian - ----- Original Message ----- From: Duke Miller To: CANSLIM Sent: Wednesday, May 08, 2002 8:01 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Curious in Florida Good morning all: Since most of you know how I feel about present market environment, you'll be glad to know this isn't about that. It's about AFTER "that!" I'll explain: Each day, I download the Excel version of the Daily Screen from IBD. Then I "play" with it for awhile. I sort various aspects to my personal preferences: Industry Group Rank (eliminating all above 40); SMR (eliminating all at C or worse); and so forth. Then I may sort them by other factors--combined RS & EPS Ratings or Index of Current PE vs. Projected--to arrive at a another cutoff point. After all that, I put the remnants into a portfolio with that day's price. Then I follow the action. What I'm seeing is an amalgam of stocks, the majority of which keep re-appearing in my final cuts. Some, more than I care to mention, I was shaken out of earlier this year before going to all cash; some, more than I care to mention, I wish I'd jumped on. They're the ones that when I should have jumped on them (I don't have 20-20 hindsight like IBD does) the right criteria weren't present (usually the darn charts). But the fact remains, many of the same symbols are there. And they aren't going away! Further, on May 6, a truly awful day on all three of the big indexes, I reviewed my Daily Screens portfolios to see which stocks suffered the least. The list read like a who's-who of my Daily Screens Portfolios. So, here's my question: If these same names are hanging around like they are, day in and day out for several months now, both on my sorted screens and in IBD editorial, does it stand to reason that when the market turns, these stocks that have exhibited such strength in a bad market should be the BIG winners when M starts to head North? I, like all of you, hear over and over again that we should be watching for stocks forming good bases at this time, blah, blah, blah. But it's my opinion 9/11 created one crazy environment for the markets and a lot of stocks we're seeing making big gains these days are NOT conforming to the teachings of WON. While composing this, I put these stocks to one more test. The Canslim Evaluator. I found it interesting that while all these stocks are floating on the top, the average score is an unimpressive 6.2 out of 10. In fact, only one was 8 or better: UOPX at 8. (FYI: Yes, there are 11 criteria on the Evaluator, but I throw out N--the fact a stock appears within the past 7 days on a Watch List is immaterial for ranking purposes, IMHO.) Your opinions will be highly valued. Thank you. Duke Everybody should believe in something - I believe I'll have another glass of great wine! - --Boundary_(ID_s+hJpVi+vDxBxGWGMNsNIQ) Content-type: text/html; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Message</TITLE> <META content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1" http-equiv=Content-Type> <META content="MSHTML 5.00.3314.2100" name=GENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=#ffffff> <DIV><FONT size=2>Duke:</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=2>I'll sit firmly on the fence on this one - I would look at each stock on an individual basis, and try to guess whether or not it was a 'temporary plaything' while the market was correcting past excesses, or if it will be a clear economic winner going forward.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=2>I would probably base that judgement on whether the forward growth justifies the current multiples on a historic basis. I think a lot of stocks were run up even though they have anemic growth, while others will truly be leaders of the next phase.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=2>However, the bottom line should be that the charts will tell you which is which, going forward.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=2>DOoyou have any objections to sharing the list with the group?</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=2>Ian</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>----- Original Message ----- </DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px"> <DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A href="mailto:dukemill@tampabay.rr.com" title=dukemill@tampabay.rr.com>Duke Miller</A> </DIV> <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com" title=canslim@lists.xmission.com>CANSLIM</A> </DIV> <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, May 08, 2002 8:01 AM</DIV> <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] Curious in Florida</DIV> <DIV><BR></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=827134813-08052002><FONT face=Arial>Good morning all:</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=827134813-08052002><FONT face=Arial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=827134813-08052002><FONT face=Arial>Since most of you know how I feel about present market environment, you'll be glad to know this isn't about that. It's about AFTER "that!" I'll explain:</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=827134813-08052002><FONT face=Arial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=827134813-08052002><FONT face=Arial>Each day, I download the Excel version of the Daily Screen from IBD. Then I "play" with it for awhile. I sort various aspects to my personal preferences: Industry Group Rank (eliminating all above 40); SMR (eliminating all at C or worse); and so forth. Then I may sort them by other factors--combined RS & EPS Ratings or Index of Current PE vs. Projected--to arrive at a another cutoff point. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN class=827134813-08052002><FONT face=Arial>After all that, I put the remnants into a portfolio with that day's price. Then I follow the action. </FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=827134813-08052002><FONT face=Arial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=827134813-08052002><FONT face=Arial>What I'm seeing is an amalgam of stocks, the majority of which keep re-appearing in my final cuts. Some, more than I care to mention, I was shaken out of earlier this year before going to all cash; some, more than I care to mention, I wish I'd jumped on. They're the ones that when I should have jumped on them (I don't have 20-20 hindsight like IBD does) the right criteria weren't present (usually the darn charts). But the fact remains, many of the same symbols are there. And they aren't going away! </FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=827134813-08052002></SPAN><SPAN class=827134813-08052002><FONT face=Arial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=827134813-08052002><FONT face=Arial>Further, on May 6, a truly awful day on all three of the big indexes, I reviewed my Daily Screens portfolios to see which stocks suffered the least. The list read like a who's-who of my Daily Screens Portfolios. </FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=827134813-08052002><FONT face=Arial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=827134813-08052002><FONT face=Arial>So, h<SPAN class=827134813-08052002><FONT face=Arial>ere's my question: If these same names are hanging around like they are, day in and day out for several months now, both on my sorted screens and in IBD editorial, does it stand to reason that when the market turns, these stocks that have exhibited such strength in a bad market should be the BIG winners when M starts to head North?</FONT></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=827134813-08052002><FONT face=Arial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=827134813-08052002><FONT face=Arial>I, like all of you, hear over and over again that we should be watching for stocks forming good bases at this time, blah, blah, blah. But it's my opinion 9/11 created one crazy environment for the markets and a lot of stocks we're seeing making big gains these days are NOT conforming to the teachings of WON. While composing this, </FONT></SPAN><SPAN class=827134813-08052002><FONT face=Arial>I put these stocks to one more test. The Canslim Evaluator. I found it interesting that while all these stocks are floating on the top, the average score is an unimpressive 6.2 out of 10. In fact, only one was 8 or better: UOPX at 8. (FYI: Yes, there are 11 criteria on the Evaluator, but I throw out N--the fact a stock appears within the past 7 days on a Watch List is immaterial for ranking purposes, IMHO.)</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=827134813-08052002></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=827134813-08052002><FONT face=Arial>Your opinions will be highly valued. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN class=827134813-08052002><FONT face=Arial>Thank you.</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=827134813-08052002><FONT face=Arial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=827134813-08052002><FONT face=Arial>Duke</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=827134813-08052002></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=827134813-08052002></SPAN><FONT size=2>Everybody should believe in something - I believe I'll have another glass of great wine!</DIV></FONT> <DIV><FONT face=Arial></FONT> </DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML> - --Boundary_(ID_s+hJpVi+vDxBxGWGMNsNIQ)-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". 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