RE: [CANSLIM] M measured by the S&P 500 index

From: dave.bigham@us.abb.com
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M measured by the S&P 500 index
Date: Wed, 8 May 2002 09:51:50 -0400

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Ernie,

I have not really been paying a lot of attention to what your tool is or how
your model works but the fact that you are trying to make sense out of chaos is
commendable.  Neither you nor anyone else said your projections would be
infallible.  As you say below - "I stand by my original analysis as being the
highest probable outcome".  "Probable" does not connote certainty.

Keep working at it.  If nothing else, you are probably learning a lot.

All the best,
Dave

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Someone has ask me off list if I have tried going back over my analysis that
failed, and look for the weight of evidence to point in the opposite
direction?
My answer was yes I have, and I stand by my original analysis as being the
highest probable outcome. The problem is that investor psychology is at an
extreme right now, which like unexpected news can skew the probabilities in
ways that are very difficult to account for.
Hopefully investor psychology will soon return to a more "normal" state, and
my methodology will become a little more accurate.
E









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