Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Curious in Florida
Date: Wed, 8 May 2002 10:48:20 -0500
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0191_01C1F67D.DE9C1380 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable MessageHi Duke, I agree with you. Under all circumstances, stocks that outperform are = likely to continue to outperform...UNLESS....they are technically = topping. So, while the market is tanking in general, stocks that are = outperforming might be either consolidating or rising. The only thing = that I would disagree on is that 9/11 or no, you need a healthy = technical pattern and proper entry (breakout or pullback) to enter. I = look for stocks/groups that are technically strong, then just use = fundamentals as a sorting criteria. I just don't think after a Bear = market and economic recession that you're more likely to find = fundamental turnarounds and/or fundamentals that stayed mildly strong = rather than a bevy of stocks with hugely accelerating fundamentals. The = stocks that are going to do well are the ones that were cleaning up = their proverbial act during economic hard times and/or were able to stay = strong fundamentally during hard times. That, combined with technical = strength leads the way. With that in mind, I just weigh the fundamentals = to help sort the list of strong stocks, rather than eliminating all = stocks that don't meet each and every "average for big winners" numbers = from WON. Katherine PS....I'd also look for strong stocks in industries with GRS>=3D60 or = 70. That means you'll also catch groups with *rising* technical = strength. The problem with sticking with the top 40 industries is that = it doesn't identify up and comers and tends to mask (filter out) strong = stocks that are leading the industry up. By the time the stock *gets* to = the top, most of the leaders are extended. ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Duke Miller=20 To: CANSLIM=20 Sent: Wednesday, May 08, 2002 10:01 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Curious in Florida Good morning all: Since most of you know how I feel about present market environment, = you'll be glad to know this isn't about that. It's about AFTER "that!" = I'll explain: Each day, I download the Excel version of the Daily Screen from IBD. = Then I "play" with it for awhile. I sort various aspects to my personal = preferences: Industry Group Rank (eliminating all above 40); SMR = (eliminating all at C or worse); and so forth. Then I may sort them by = other factors--combined RS & EPS Ratings or Index of Current PE vs. = Projected--to arrive at a another cutoff point. After all that, I put = the remnants into a portfolio with that day's price. Then I follow the = action. =20 What I'm seeing is an amalgam of stocks, the majority of which keep = re-appearing in my final cuts. Some, more than I care to mention, I was = shaken out of earlier this year before going to all cash; some, more = than I care to mention, I wish I'd jumped on. They're the ones that = when I should have jumped on them (I don't have 20-20 hindsight like IBD = does) the right criteria weren't present (usually the darn charts). But = the fact remains, many of the same symbols are there. And they aren't = going away!=20 Further, on May 6, a truly awful day on all three of the big indexes, = I reviewed my Daily Screens portfolios to see which stocks suffered the = least. The list read like a who's-who of my Daily Screens Portfolios. =20 So, here's my question: If these same names are hanging around like = they are, day in and day out for several months now, both on my sorted = screens and in IBD editorial, does it stand to reason that when the = market turns, these stocks that have exhibited such strength in a bad = market should be the BIG winners when M starts to head North? I, like all of you, hear over and over again that we should be = watching for stocks forming good bases at this time, blah, blah, blah. = But it's my opinion 9/11 created one crazy environment for the markets = and a lot of stocks we're seeing making big gains these days are NOT = conforming to the teachings of WON. While composing this, I put these = stocks to one more test. The Canslim Evaluator. I found it interesting = that while all these stocks are floating on the top, the average score = is an unimpressive 6.2 out of 10. In fact, only one was 8 or better: = UOPX at 8. (FYI: Yes, there are 11 criteria on the Evaluator, but I = throw out N--the fact a stock appears within the past 7 days on a Watch = List is immaterial for ranking purposes, IMHO.) Your opinions will be highly valued. Thank you. Duke Everybody should believe in something - I believe I'll have another = glass of great wine! - ------=_NextPart_000_0191_01C1F67D.DE9C1380 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Message</TITLE> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2600.0" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV>Hi Duke,</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>I agree with you. Under all circumstances, stocks that outperform = are=20 likely to continue to outperform...UNLESS....they are technically = topping. So,=20 while the market is tanking in general, stocks that are outperforming = might be=20 either consolidating or rising. The only thing that I would disagree on = is that=20 9/11 or no, you need a healthy technical pattern and proper entry = (breakout or=20 pullback) to enter. I look for stocks/groups that are technically = strong, then=20 just use fundamentals as a sorting criteria. I just don't think after a = Bear=20 market and economic recession that you're more likely to find = fundamental=20 turnarounds and/or fundamentals that stayed mildly strong rather than a = bevy of=20 stocks with hugely accelerating fundamentals. The stocks that are going = to do=20 well are the ones that were cleaning up their proverbial act during = economic=20 hard times and/or were able to stay strong fundamentally during hard = times.=20 That, combined with technical strength leads the way. With that in mind, = I just=20 weigh the fundamentals to help sort the list of strong stocks, rather = than=20 eliminating all stocks that don't meet each and every "average for big = winners"=20 numbers from WON.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Katherine</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>PS....I'd also look for strong stocks in industries with = GRS>=3D60 or 70.=20 That means you'll also catch groups with *rising* technical strength. = The=20 problem with sticking with the top 40 industries is that it doesn't = identify up=20 and comers and tends to mask (filter out) strong stocks that are leading = the=20 industry up. By the time the stock *gets* to the top, most of the = leaders are=20 extended.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20 style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; = BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV> <DIV=20 style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: = black"><B>From:</B>=20 <A title=3Ddukemill@tampabay.rr.com = href=3D"mailto:dukemill@tampabay.rr.com">Duke=20 Miller</A> </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A = title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20 href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">CANSLIM</A> </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, May 08, 2002 = 10:01=20 AM</DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] Curious in=20 Florida</DIV> <DIV><BR></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>Good morning=20 all:</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT=20 face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>Since most of = you know how I feel about present market environment, you'll be = glad to=20 know this isn't about that. It's about AFTER "that!" = I'll=20 explain:</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT=20 face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>Each day, I = download the=20 Excel version of the Daily Screen from IBD. Then I "play" = with it=20 for awhile. I sort various aspects to my personal=20 preferences: Industry Group Rank (eliminating all above 40); SMR=20 (eliminating all at C or worse); and so forth. Then I may sort = them by=20 other factors--combined RS & EPS Ratings or Index of Current PE = vs.=20 Projected--to arrive at a another cutoff point. =20 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT = face=3DArial>After all that,=20 I put the remnants into a portfolio with that day's price. Then = I follow=20 the action. </FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT=20 face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>What I'm = seeing is an=20 amalgam of stocks, the majority of which keep re-appearing in my = final=20 cuts. Some, more than I care to mention, I was shaken out of = earlier=20 this year before going to all cash; some, more than I care to = mention, I=20 wish I'd jumped on. They're the ones that when I should have = jumped on=20 them (I don't have 20-20 hindsight like IBD does) the right criteria = weren't=20 present (usually the darn charts). But the fact remains, many of = the=20 same symbols are there. And they aren't going away! = </FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002></SPAN><SPAN=20 class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT = face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>Further, on = May 6, a=20 truly awful day on all three of the big indexes, I reviewed my Daily=20 Screens portfolios to see which stocks suffered the least. = The list=20 read like a who's-who of my Daily Screens Portfolios. =20 </FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT=20 face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>So, h<SPAN=20 class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>ere's my question: = If these=20 same names are hanging around like they are, day in and day out for = several=20 months now, both on my sorted screens and in IBD editorial, does it = stand to=20 reason that when the market turns, these stocks that have exhibited = such=20 strength in a bad market should be the BIG winners when M starts to = head=20 North?</FONT></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT=20 face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>I, like all = of you, hear=20 over and over again that we should be watching for stocks forming good = bases=20 at this time, blah, blah, blah. But it's my opinion 9/11 created = one=20 crazy environment for the markets and a lot of stocks we're seeing = making big=20 gains these days are NOT conforming to the teachings of WON. = While=20 composing this, </FONT></SPAN><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT=20 face=3DArial>I put these stocks to one more test. The Canslim=20 Evaluator. I found it interesting that while all these stocks = are=20 floating on the top, the average score is an unimpressive 6.2 out of = 10. =20 In fact, only one was 8 or better: UOPX at 8. (FYI: = Yes,=20 there are 11 criteria on the Evaluator, but I throw out N--the fact a = stock=20 appears within the past 7 days on a Watch List is immaterial for = ranking=20 purposes, IMHO.)</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>Your opinions = will be=20 highly valued. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN = class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT=20 face=3DArial>Thank you.</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT=20 face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT = face=3DArial>Duke</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002></SPAN><FONT size=3D2>Everybody = should=20 believe in something - I believe I'll have another glass of great=20 wine!</DIV></FONT> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_000_0191_01C1F67D.DE9C1380-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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