Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Curious in Florida
Date: Wed, 8 May 2002 10:52:17 -0500
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MessageDuke,=20
Sorry, a couple of typos in my original message:
"Under most circumstances, stocks that outperform..."
and
"By the time the industry *gets* to the top, most of the leaders are =
extended"
Darn those interruptions!
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Katherine Malm=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Wednesday, May 08, 2002 10:48 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Curious in Florida
Hi Duke,
I agree with you. Under all circumstances, stocks that outperform are =
likely to continue to outperform...UNLESS....they are technically =
topping. So, while the market is tanking in general, stocks that are =
outperforming might be either consolidating or rising. The only thing =
that I would disagree on is that 9/11 or no, you need a healthy =
technical pattern and proper entry (breakout or pullback) to enter. I =
look for stocks/groups that are technically strong, then just use =
fundamentals as a sorting criteria. I just don't think after a Bear =
market and economic recession that you're more likely to find =
fundamental turnarounds and/or fundamentals that stayed mildly strong =
rather than a bevy of stocks with hugely accelerating fundamentals. The =
stocks that are going to do well are the ones that were cleaning up =
their proverbial act during economic hard times and/or were able to stay =
strong fundamentally during hard times. That, combined with technical =
strength leads the way. With that in mind, I just weigh the fundamentals =
to help sort the list of strong stocks, rather than eliminating all =
stocks that don't meet each and every "average for big winners" numbers =
from WON.
Katherine
PS....I'd also look for strong stocks in industries with GRS>=3D60 or =
70. That means you'll also catch groups with *rising* technical =
strength. The problem with sticking with the top 40 industries is that =
it doesn't identify up and comers and tends to mask (filter out) strong =
stocks that are leading the industry up. By the time the stock *gets* to =
the top, most of the leaders are extended.
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Duke Miller=20
To: CANSLIM=20
Sent: Wednesday, May 08, 2002 10:01 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Curious in Florida
Good morning all:
Since most of you know how I feel about present market environment, =
you'll be glad to know this isn't about that. It's about AFTER "that!" =
I'll explain:
Each day, I download the Excel version of the Daily Screen from IBD. =
Then I "play" with it for awhile. I sort various aspects to my =
personal preferences: Industry Group Rank (eliminating all above 40); =
SMR (eliminating all at C or worse); and so forth. Then I may sort them =
by other factors--combined RS & EPS Ratings or Index of Current PE vs. =
Projected--to arrive at a another cutoff point. After all that, I put =
the remnants into a portfolio with that day's price. Then I follow the =
action. =20
What I'm seeing is an amalgam of stocks, the majority of which keep =
re-appearing in my final cuts. Some, more than I care to mention, I was =
shaken out of earlier this year before going to all cash; some, more =
than I care to mention, I wish I'd jumped on. They're the ones that =
when I should have jumped on them (I don't have 20-20 hindsight like IBD =
does) the right criteria weren't present (usually the darn charts). But =
the fact remains, many of the same symbols are there. And they aren't =
going away!=20
Further, on May 6, a truly awful day on all three of the big =
indexes, I reviewed my Daily Screens portfolios to see which stocks =
suffered the least. The list read like a who's-who of my Daily Screens =
Portfolios. =20
So, here's my question: If these same names are hanging around like =
they are, day in and day out for several months now, both on my sorted =
screens and in IBD editorial, does it stand to reason that when the =
market turns, these stocks that have exhibited such strength in a bad =
market should be the BIG winners when M starts to head North?
I, like all of you, hear over and over again that we should be =
watching for stocks forming good bases at this time, blah, blah, blah. =
But it's my opinion 9/11 created one crazy environment for the markets =
and a lot of stocks we're seeing making big gains these days are NOT =
conforming to the teachings of WON. While composing this, I put these =
stocks to one more test. The Canslim Evaluator. I found it interesting =
that while all these stocks are floating on the top, the average score =
is an unimpressive 6.2 out of 10. In fact, only one was 8 or better: =
UOPX at 8. (FYI: Yes, there are 11 criteria on the Evaluator, but I =
throw out N--the fact a stock appears within the past 7 days on a Watch =
List is immaterial for ranking purposes, IMHO.)
Your opinions will be highly valued. Thank you.
Duke
Everybody should believe in something - I believe I'll have another =
glass of great wine!
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<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Message</TITLE>
<META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; =
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<DIV>Duke, </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Sorry, a couple of typos in my original message:</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>"Under <EM>most</EM> circumstances, stocks that =
outperform..."</DIV>
<DIV>and</DIV>
<DIV>"By the time the <EM>industry</EM> *gets* to the top, most of the =
leaders=20
are extended"</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Darn those interruptions!</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net =
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine=20
Malm</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, May 08, 2002 =
10:48=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Curious =
in=20
Florida</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Hi Duke,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I agree with you. Under all circumstances, stocks that outperform =
are=20
likely to continue to outperform...UNLESS....they are technically =
topping. So,=20
while the market is tanking in general, stocks that are outperforming =
might be=20
either consolidating or rising. The only thing that I would disagree =
on is=20
that 9/11 or no, you need a healthy technical pattern and proper entry =
(breakout or pullback) to enter. I look for stocks/groups that are =
technically=20
strong, then just use fundamentals as a sorting criteria. I just don't =
think=20
after a Bear market and economic recession that you're more =
likely to=20
find fundamental turnarounds and/or fundamentals that stayed mildly =
strong=20
rather than a bevy of stocks with hugely accelerating fundamentals. =
The stocks=20
that are going to do well are the ones that were cleaning up their =
proverbial=20
act during economic hard times and/or were able to stay strong =
fundamentally=20
during hard times. That, combined with technical strength leads the =
way. With=20
that in mind, I just weigh the fundamentals to help sort the list of =
strong=20
stocks, rather than eliminating all stocks that don't meet each and =
every=20
"average for big winners" numbers from WON.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>PS....I'd also look for strong stocks in industries with =
GRS>=3D60 or=20
70. That means you'll also catch groups with *rising* technical =
strength. The=20
problem with sticking with the top 40 industries is that it doesn't =
identify=20
up and comers and tends to mask (filter out) strong stocks that are =
leading=20
the industry up. By the time the stock *gets* to the top, most of the =
leaders=20
are extended.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Ddukemill@tampabay.rr.com=20
href=3D"mailto:dukemill@tampabay.rr.com">Duke Miller</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">CANSLIM</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, May 08, 2002 =
10:01=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] Curious in =
Florida</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>Good =
morning=20
all:</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>Since most =
of=20
you know how I feel about present market environment, you'll be =
glad to=20
know this isn't about that. It's about AFTER =
"that!" I'll=20
explain:</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>Each day, I =
download=20
the Excel version of the Daily Screen from IBD. Then =
I "play"=20
with it for awhile. I sort various aspects to my =
personal=20
preferences: Industry Group Rank (eliminating all above 40); =
SMR=20
(eliminating all at C or worse); and so forth. Then I may sort =
them by=20
other factors--combined RS & EPS Ratings or Index of Current PE =
vs.=20
Projected--to arrive at a another cutoff =
point. =20
</FONT></SPAN><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT =
face=3DArial>After all=20
that, I put the remnants into a portfolio with that day's =
price. Then=20
I follow the action. </FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>What I'm =
seeing is an=20
amalgam of stocks, the majority of which keep re-appearing in =
my final=20
cuts. Some, more than I care to mention, I was shaken out of =
earlier=20
this year before going to all cash; some, more than I care to=20
mention, I wish I'd jumped on. They're the ones that when =
I=20
should have jumped on them (I don't have 20-20 hindsight like IBD =
does) the=20
right criteria weren't present (usually the darn charts). But =
the fact=20
remains, many of the same symbols are there. And they aren't =
going=20
away! </FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002></SPAN><SPAN=20
class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT =
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>Further, on =
May 6, a=20
truly awful day on all three of the big indexes, I reviewed my Daily =
Screens portfolios to see which stocks suffered the =
least. The=20
list read like a who's-who of my Daily Screens Portfolios. =20
</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>So, h<SPAN=20
class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>ere's my =
question: If these=20
same names are hanging around like they are, day in and day out for =
several=20
months now, both on my sorted screens and in IBD editorial, does it =
stand to=20
reason that when the market turns, these stocks that have exhibited =
such=20
strength in a bad market should be the BIG winners when M starts to =
head=20
North?</FONT></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>I, like all =
of you,=20
hear over and over again that we should be watching for stocks =
forming good=20
bases at this time, blah, blah, blah. But it's my opinion 9/11 =
created=20
one crazy environment for the markets and a lot of stocks we're =
seeing=20
making big gains these days are NOT conforming to the teachings of=20
WON. While composing this, </FONT></SPAN><SPAN=20
class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>I put these stocks to =
one more=20
test. The Canslim Evaluator. I found it interesting that =
while=20
all these stocks are floating on the top, the average score is an=20
unimpressive 6.2 out of 10. In fact, only one was 8 or =
better: =20
UOPX at 8. (FYI: Yes, there are 11 criteria on the =
Evaluator,=20
but I throw out N--the fact a stock appears within the past 7 days =
on a=20
Watch List is immaterial for ranking purposes, =
IMHO.)</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>Your =
opinions will be=20
highly valued. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN =
class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT=20
face=3DArial>Thank you.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT=20
face=3DArial>Duke</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002></SPAN><FONT =
size=3D2>Everybody should=20
believe in something - I believe I'll have another glass of great=20
wine!</DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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