Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Duke Miller" <dukemill@tampabay.rr.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Curious in Florida
Date: Wed, 8 May 2002 17:04:11 -0400
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Thanks, Katherine. As usual, you thread the ol' needle for us quite
nicely.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but following today's big run, we now look for
a 2% rise on above average volume to declare an "Official" market turn
upward. Right?
Duke
- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Katherine Malm
Sent: Wednesday, May 08, 2002 11:48 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Curious in Florida
Hi Duke,
I agree with you. Under all circumstances, stocks that outperform are
likely to continue to outperform...UNLESS....they are technically
topping. So, while the market is tanking in general, stocks that are
outperforming might be either consolidating or rising. The only thing
that I would disagree on is that 9/11 or no, you need a healthy
technical pattern and proper entry (breakout or pullback) to enter. I
look for stocks/groups that are technically strong, then just use
fundamentals as a sorting criteria. I just don't think after a Bear
market and economic recession that you're more likely to find
fundamental turnarounds and/or fundamentals that stayed mildly strong
rather than a bevy of stocks with hugely accelerating fundamentals. The
stocks that are going to do well are the ones that were cleaning up
their proverbial act during economic hard times and/or were able to stay
strong fundamentally during hard times. That, combined with technical
strength leads the way. With that in mind, I just weigh the fundamentals
to help sort the list of strong stocks, rather than eliminating all
stocks that don't meet each and every "average for big winners" numbers
from WON.
Katherine
PS....I'd also look for strong stocks in industries with GRS>=60 or 70.
That means you'll also catch groups with *rising* technical strength.
The problem with sticking with the top 40 industries is that it doesn't
identify up and comers and tends to mask (filter out) strong stocks that
are leading the industry up. By the time the stock *gets* to the top,
most of the leaders are extended.
- ----- Original Message -----
From: Duke Miller <mailto:dukemill@tampabay.rr.com>
To: CANSLIM <mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Wednesday, May 08, 2002 10:01 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Curious in Florida
Good morning all:
Since most of you know how I feel about present market environment,
you'll be glad to know this isn't about that. It's about AFTER "that!"
I'll explain:
Each day, I download the Excel version of the Daily Screen from IBD.
Then I "play" with it for awhile. I sort various aspects to my personal
preferences: Industry Group Rank (eliminating all above 40); SMR
(eliminating all at C or worse); and so forth. Then I may sort them by
other factors--combined RS & EPS Ratings or Index of Current PE vs.
Projected--to arrive at a another cutoff point. After all that, I put
the remnants into a portfolio with that day's price. Then I follow the
action.
What I'm seeing is an amalgam of stocks, the majority of which keep
re-appearing in my final cuts. Some, more than I care to mention, I was
shaken out of earlier this year before going to all cash; some, more
than I care to mention, I wish I'd jumped on. They're the ones that
when I should have jumped on them (I don't have 20-20 hindsight like IBD
does) the right criteria weren't present (usually the darn charts). But
the fact remains, many of the same symbols are there. And they aren't
going away!
Further, on May 6, a truly awful day on all three of the big indexes, I
reviewed my Daily Screens portfolios to see which stocks suffered the
least. The list read like a who's-who of my Daily Screens Portfolios.
So, here's my question: If these same names are hanging around like
they are, day in and day out for several months now, both on my sorted
screens and in IBD editorial, does it stand to reason that when the
market turns, these stocks that have exhibited such strength in a bad
market should be the BIG winners when M starts to head North?
I, like all of you, hear over and over again that we should be watching
for stocks forming good bases at this time, blah, blah, blah. But it's
my opinion 9/11 created one crazy environment for the markets and a lot
of stocks we're seeing making big gains these days are NOT conforming to
the teachings of WON. While composing this, I put these stocks to one
more test. The Canslim Evaluator. I found it interesting that while
all these stocks are floating on the top, the average score is an
unimpressive 6.2 out of 10. In fact, only one was 8 or better: UOPX at
8. (FYI: Yes, there are 11 criteria on the Evaluator, but I throw out
N--the fact a stock appears within the past 7 days on a Watch List is
immaterial for ranking purposes, IMHO.)
Your opinions will be highly valued. Thank you.
Duke
Everybody should believe in something - I believe I'll have another
glass of great wine!
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<DIV><SPAN class=3D889010221-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>Thanks, =
Katherine. As=20
usual, you thread the ol' needle for us quite =
nicely.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D889010221-08052002><FONT =
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D889010221-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>Correct me if =
I'm wrong,=20
but following today's big run, we now look for a 2% rise on above =
average volume=20
to declare an "Official" market turn upward. =
Right?</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D889010221-08052002><FONT =
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D889010221-08052002><FONT =
face=3DArial>Duke</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader lang=3Den-us dir=3Dltr =
align=3Dleft><FONT=20
face=3DTahoma size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>=20
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com =
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]=20
<B>On Behalf Of </B>Katherine Malm<BR><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, May 08, =
2002=20
11:48 AM<BR><B>To:</B> canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> =
Re:=20
[CANSLIM] Curious in Florida<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV>Hi Duke,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I agree with you. Under all circumstances, stocks that outperform =
are=20
likely to continue to outperform...UNLESS....they are technically =
topping. So,=20
while the market is tanking in general, stocks that are outperforming =
might be=20
either consolidating or rising. The only thing that I would disagree =
on is=20
that 9/11 or no, you need a healthy technical pattern and proper entry =
(breakout or pullback) to enter. I look for stocks/groups that are =
technically=20
strong, then just use fundamentals as a sorting criteria. I just don't =
think=20
after a Bear market and economic recession that you're more =
likely to=20
find fundamental turnarounds and/or fundamentals that stayed mildly =
strong=20
rather than a bevy of stocks with hugely accelerating fundamentals. =
The stocks=20
that are going to do well are the ones that were cleaning up their =
proverbial=20
act during economic hard times and/or were able to stay strong =
fundamentally=20
during hard times. That, combined with technical strength leads the =
way. With=20
that in mind, I just weigh the fundamentals to help sort the list of =
strong=20
stocks, rather than eliminating all stocks that don't meet each and =
every=20
"average for big winners" numbers from WON.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>PS....I'd also look for strong stocks in industries with =
GRS>=3D60 or=20
70. That means you'll also catch groups with *rising* technical =
strength. The=20
problem with sticking with the top 40 industries is that it doesn't =
identify=20
up and comers and tends to mask (filter out) strong stocks that are =
leading=20
the industry up. By the time the stock *gets* to the top, most of the =
leaders=20
are extended.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Ddukemill@tampabay.rr.com=20
href=3D"mailto:dukemill@tampabay.rr.com">Duke Miller</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">CANSLIM</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, May 08, 2002 =
10:01=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] Curious in =
Florida</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>Good =
morning=20
all:</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>Since most =
of=20
you know how I feel about present market environment, you'll be =
glad to=20
know this isn't about that. It's about AFTER =
"that!" I'll=20
explain:</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>Each day, I =
download=20
the Excel version of the Daily Screen from IBD. Then =
I "play"=20
with it for awhile. I sort various aspects to my =
personal=20
preferences: Industry Group Rank (eliminating all above 40); =
SMR=20
(eliminating all at C or worse); and so forth. Then I may sort =
them by=20
other factors--combined RS & EPS Ratings or Index of Current PE =
vs.=20
Projected--to arrive at a another cutoff =
point. =20
</FONT></SPAN><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT =
face=3DArial>After all=20
that, I put the remnants into a portfolio with that day's =
price. Then=20
I follow the action. </FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>What I'm =
seeing is an=20
amalgam of stocks, the majority of which keep re-appearing in =
my final=20
cuts. Some, more than I care to mention, I was shaken out of =
earlier=20
this year before going to all cash; some, more than I care to=20
mention, I wish I'd jumped on. They're the ones that when =
I=20
should have jumped on them (I don't have 20-20 hindsight like IBD =
does) the=20
right criteria weren't present (usually the darn charts). But =
the fact=20
remains, many of the same symbols are there. And they aren't =
going=20
away! </FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002></SPAN><SPAN=20
class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT =
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>Further, on =
May 6, a=20
truly awful day on all three of the big indexes, I reviewed my Daily =
Screens portfolios to see which stocks suffered the =
least. The=20
list read like a who's-who of my Daily Screens Portfolios. =20
</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>So, h<SPAN=20
class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>ere's my =
question: If these=20
same names are hanging around like they are, day in and day out for =
several=20
months now, both on my sorted screens and in IBD editorial, does it =
stand to=20
reason that when the market turns, these stocks that have exhibited =
such=20
strength in a bad market should be the BIG winners when M starts to =
head=20
North?</FONT></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>I, like all =
of you,=20
hear over and over again that we should be watching for stocks =
forming good=20
bases at this time, blah, blah, blah. But it's my opinion 9/11 =
created=20
one crazy environment for the markets and a lot of stocks we're =
seeing=20
making big gains these days are NOT conforming to the teachings of=20
WON. While composing this, </FONT></SPAN><SPAN=20
class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>I put these stocks to =
one more=20
test. The Canslim Evaluator. I found it interesting that =
while=20
all these stocks are floating on the top, the average score is an=20
unimpressive 6.2 out of 10. In fact, only one was 8 or =
better: =20
UOPX at 8. (FYI: Yes, there are 11 criteria on the =
Evaluator,=20
but I throw out N--the fact a stock appears within the past 7 days =
on a=20
Watch List is immaterial for ranking purposes, =
IMHO.)</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>Your =
opinions will be=20
highly valued. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN =
class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT=20
face=3DArial>Thank you.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT=20
face=3DArial>Duke</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002></SPAN><FONT =
size=3D2>Everybody should=20
believe in something - I believe I'll have another glass of great=20
wine!</DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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