Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Duke Miller" <dukemill@tampabay.rr.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Curious in Florida
Date: Wed, 8 May 2002 17:00:16 -0400
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Ian:
Good points.
No, I don't have any objection to sharing it. But I want to do another
run after today's action. It may have some answers I'm looking for.
Right now, my analysis is on slips of paper. I'll compile it so it
makes more sense (to you AND me). Thanks for your time.
Duke
- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Ian
Sent: Wednesday, May 08, 2002 12:01 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Curious in Florida
Duke:
I'll sit firmly on the fence on this one - I would look at each stock on
an individual basis, and try to guess whether or not it was a 'temporary
plaything' while the market was correcting past excesses, or if it will
be a clear economic winner going forward.
I would probably base that judgement on whether the forward growth
justifies the current multiples on a historic basis. I think a lot of
stocks were run up even though they have anemic growth, while others
will truly be leaders of the next phase.
However, the bottom line should be that the charts will tell you which
is which, going forward.
DOoyou have any objections to sharing the list with the group?
Ian
- ----- Original Message -----
From: Duke Miller <mailto:dukemill@tampabay.rr.com>
To: CANSLIM <mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Wednesday, May 08, 2002 8:01 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Curious in Florida
Good morning all:
Since most of you know how I feel about present market environment,
you'll be glad to know this isn't about that. It's about AFTER "that!"
I'll explain:
Each day, I download the Excel version of the Daily Screen from IBD.
Then I "play" with it for awhile. I sort various aspects to my personal
preferences: Industry Group Rank (eliminating all above 40); SMR
(eliminating all at C or worse); and so forth. Then I may sort them by
other factors--combined RS & EPS Ratings or Index of Current PE vs.
Projected--to arrive at a another cutoff point. After all that, I put
the remnants into a portfolio with that day's price. Then I follow the
action.
What I'm seeing is an amalgam of stocks, the majority of which keep
re-appearing in my final cuts. Some, more than I care to mention, I was
shaken out of earlier this year before going to all cash; some, more
than I care to mention, I wish I'd jumped on. They're the ones that
when I should have jumped on them (I don't have 20-20 hindsight like IBD
does) the right criteria weren't present (usually the darn charts). But
the fact remains, many of the same symbols are there. And they aren't
going away!
Further, on May 6, a truly awful day on all three of the big indexes, I
reviewed my Daily Screens portfolios to see which stocks suffered the
least. The list read like a who's-who of my Daily Screens Portfolios.
So, here's my question: If these same names are hanging around like
they are, day in and day out for several months now, both on my sorted
screens and in IBD editorial, does it stand to reason that when the
market turns, these stocks that have exhibited such strength in a bad
market should be the BIG winners when M starts to head North?
I, like all of you, hear over and over again that we should be watching
for stocks forming good bases at this time, blah, blah, blah. But it's
my opinion 9/11 created one crazy environment for the markets and a lot
of stocks we're seeing making big gains these days are NOT conforming to
the teachings of WON. While composing this, I put these stocks to one
more test. The Canslim Evaluator. I found it interesting that while
all these stocks are floating on the top, the average score is an
unimpressive 6.2 out of 10. In fact, only one was 8 or better: UOPX at
8. (FYI: Yes, there are 11 criteria on the Evaluator, but I throw out
N--the fact a stock appears within the past 7 days on a Watch List is
immaterial for ranking purposes, IMHO.)
Your opinions will be highly valued. Thank you.
Duke
Everybody should believe in something - I believe I'll have another
glass of great wine!
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<BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D998134420-08052002><FONT =
face=3DArial>Ian:</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D998134420-08052002><FONT =
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D998134420-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>Good =
points. =20
</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D998134420-08052002><FONT =
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D998134420-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>No, I don't =
have any=20
objection to sharing it. But I want to do another run after =
today's=20
action. It may have some answers I'm looking for. Right now, =
my=20
analysis is on slips of paper. I'll compile it so it makes more =
sense (to=20
you AND me). Thanks for your time.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D998134420-08052002><FONT =
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D998134420-08052002><FONT =
face=3DArial>Duke</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader lang=3Den-us dir=3Dltr =
align=3Dleft><FONT=20
face=3DTahoma size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>=20
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com =
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]=20
<B>On Behalf Of </B>Ian<BR><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, May 08, 2002 12:01=20
PM<BR><B>To:</B> canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: =
[CANSLIM]=20
Curious in Florida<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Duke:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>I'll sit firmly on the fence on this one - I would =
look at=20
each stock on an individual basis, and try to guess whether or not it =
was a=20
'temporary plaything' while the market was correcting past excesses, =
or if it=20
will be a clear economic winner going forward.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>I would probably base that judgement on whether =
the forward=20
growth justifies the current multiples on a historic basis. I think a =
lot of=20
stocks were run up even though they have anemic growth, while others =
will=20
truly be leaders of the next phase.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>However, the bottom line should be that the charts =
will tell=20
you which is which, going forward.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>DOoyou have any objections to sharing the list =
with the=20
group?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Ian</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Ddukemill@tampabay.rr.com=20
href=3D"mailto:dukemill@tampabay.rr.com">Duke Miller</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">CANSLIM</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, May 08, 2002 =
8:01=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] Curious in =
Florida</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>Good =
morning=20
all:</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>Since most =
of=20
you know how I feel about present market environment, you'll be =
glad to=20
know this isn't about that. It's about AFTER =
"that!" I'll=20
explain:</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>Each day, I =
download=20
the Excel version of the Daily Screen from IBD. Then =
I "play"=20
with it for awhile. I sort various aspects to my =
personal=20
preferences: Industry Group Rank (eliminating all above 40); =
SMR=20
(eliminating all at C or worse); and so forth. Then I may sort =
them by=20
other factors--combined RS & EPS Ratings or Index of Current PE =
vs.=20
Projected--to arrive at a another cutoff =
point. =20
</FONT></SPAN><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT =
face=3DArial>After all=20
that, I put the remnants into a portfolio with that day's =
price. Then=20
I follow the action. </FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>What I'm =
seeing is an=20
amalgam of stocks, the majority of which keep re-appearing in =
my final=20
cuts. Some, more than I care to mention, I was shaken out of =
earlier=20
this year before going to all cash; some, more than I care to=20
mention, I wish I'd jumped on. They're the ones that when =
I=20
should have jumped on them (I don't have 20-20 hindsight like IBD =
does) the=20
right criteria weren't present (usually the darn charts). But =
the fact=20
remains, many of the same symbols are there. And they aren't =
going=20
away! </FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002></SPAN><SPAN=20
class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT =
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>Further, on =
May 6, a=20
truly awful day on all three of the big indexes, I reviewed my Daily =
Screens portfolios to see which stocks suffered the =
least. The=20
list read like a who's-who of my Daily Screens Portfolios. =20
</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>So, h<SPAN=20
class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>ere's my =
question: If these=20
same names are hanging around like they are, day in and day out for =
several=20
months now, both on my sorted screens and in IBD editorial, does it =
stand to=20
reason that when the market turns, these stocks that have exhibited =
such=20
strength in a bad market should be the BIG winners when M starts to =
head=20
North?</FONT></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>I, like all =
of you,=20
hear over and over again that we should be watching for stocks =
forming good=20
bases at this time, blah, blah, blah. But it's my opinion 9/11 =
created=20
one crazy environment for the markets and a lot of stocks we're =
seeing=20
making big gains these days are NOT conforming to the teachings of=20
WON. While composing this, </FONT></SPAN><SPAN=20
class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>I put these stocks to =
one more=20
test. The Canslim Evaluator. I found it interesting that =
while=20
all these stocks are floating on the top, the average score is an=20
unimpressive 6.2 out of 10. In fact, only one was 8 or =
better: =20
UOPX at 8. (FYI: Yes, there are 11 criteria on the =
Evaluator,=20
but I throw out N--the fact a stock appears within the past 7 days =
on a=20
Watch List is immaterial for ranking purposes, =
IMHO.)</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>Your =
opinions will be=20
highly valued. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN =
class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT=20
face=3DArial>Thank you.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT=20
face=3DArial>Duke</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002></SPAN><FONT =
size=3D2>Everybody should=20
believe in something - I believe I'll have another glass of great=20
wine!</DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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