Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Mike Lucero" <m.lucero@verizon.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Curious in Florida - FTD - slow learner
Date: Wed, 8 May 2002 22:56:12 -0700
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MessageI think you're right.
- ----- Original Message -----=20
From: rolf hertenstein=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Wednesday, May 08, 2002 9:24 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Curious in Florida - FTD - slow learner
For my edification, today was *not* an FTD because of Monday's weak =
action
on various indices (intraday lows below that of the previous beginning =
uptrend
starting Tues, 4/30). =20
=20
So, hypothetically, if Monday 5/6 had only been down only a small amount
(rather than the -1.8 to -2.1% we saw on the DOW, NASD NYSE, S&P, =
RUS2000)
today would have made for an FTD.
=20
Since Monday 5/6 *was* down substantially, the counter starts with =
today's new
uptrend.
=20
Right?
=20
Rolf
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Tom Worley=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Wednesday, May 08, 2002 7:01 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Curious in Florida
Duke, add to that we are looking for the FTD (not the florist, Follow =
Thru Day) to arrive on the 4th to 10th day. I take that as next no =
earlier than next Tuesday counts, and must happen by Wednesday of the =
following week. If we get a follow thru rally tomorrow, it doesn't =
count.
Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: TexWorley
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Duke Miller=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Wednesday, May 08, 2002 5:04 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Curious in Florida
Thanks, Katherine. As usual, you thread the ol' needle for us quite =
nicely.
=20
Correct me if I'm wrong, but following today's big run, we now look =
for a 2% rise on above average volume to declare an "Official" market =
turn upward. Right?
=20
Duke
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com =
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Katherine Malm
Sent: Wednesday, May 08, 2002 11:48 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Curious in Florida
Hi Duke,
I agree with you. Under all circumstances, stocks that outperform =
are likely to continue to outperform...UNLESS....they are technically =
topping. So, while the market is tanking in general, stocks that are =
outperforming might be either consolidating or rising. The only thing =
that I would disagree on is that 9/11 or no, you need a healthy =
technical pattern and proper entry (breakout or pullback) to enter. I =
look for stocks/groups that are technically strong, then just use =
fundamentals as a sorting criteria. I just don't think after a Bear =
market and economic recession that you're more likely to find =
fundamental turnarounds and/or fundamentals that stayed mildly strong =
rather than a bevy of stocks with hugely accelerating fundamentals. The =
stocks that are going to do well are the ones that were cleaning up =
their proverbial act during economic hard times and/or were able to stay =
strong fundamentally during hard times. That, combined with technical =
strength leads the way. With that in mind, I just weigh the fundamentals =
to help sort the list of strong stocks, rather than eliminating all =
stocks that don't meet each and every "average for big winners" numbers =
from WON.
Katherine
PS....I'd also look for strong stocks in industries with GRS>=3D60 =
or 70. That means you'll also catch groups with *rising* technical =
strength. The problem with sticking with the top 40 industries is that =
it doesn't identify up and comers and tends to mask (filter out) strong =
stocks that are leading the industry up. By the time the stock *gets* to =
the top, most of the leaders are extended.
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Duke Miller=20
To: CANSLIM=20
Sent: Wednesday, May 08, 2002 10:01 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Curious in Florida
Good morning all:
=20
Since most of you know how I feel about present market =
environment, you'll be glad to know this isn't about that. It's about =
AFTER "that!" I'll explain:
=20
Each day, I download the Excel version of the Daily Screen from =
IBD. Then I "play" with it for awhile. I sort various aspects to my =
personal preferences: Industry Group Rank (eliminating all above 40); =
SMR (eliminating all at C or worse); and so forth. Then I may sort them =
by other factors--combined RS & EPS Ratings or Index of Current PE vs. =
Projected--to arrive at a another cutoff point. After all that, I put =
the remnants into a portfolio with that day's price. Then I follow the =
action. =20
=20
What I'm seeing is an amalgam of stocks, the majority of which =
keep re-appearing in my final cuts. Some, more than I care to mention, =
I was shaken out of earlier this year before going to all cash; some, =
more than I care to mention, I wish I'd jumped on. They're the ones =
that when I should have jumped on them (I don't have 20-20 hindsight =
like IBD does) the right criteria weren't present (usually the darn =
charts). But the fact remains, many of the same symbols are there. And =
they aren't going away!=20
=20
Further, on May 6, a truly awful day on all three of the big =
indexes, I reviewed my Daily Screens portfolios to see which stocks =
suffered the least. The list read like a who's-who of my Daily Screens =
Portfolios. =20
=20
So, here's my question: If these same names are hanging around =
like they are, day in and day out for several months now, both on my =
sorted screens and in IBD editorial, does it stand to reason that when =
the market turns, these stocks that have exhibited such strength in a =
bad market should be the BIG winners when M starts to head North?
=20
I, like all of you, hear over and over again that we should be =
watching for stocks forming good bases at this time, blah, blah, blah. =
But it's my opinion 9/11 created one crazy environment for the markets =
and a lot of stocks we're seeing making big gains these days are NOT =
conforming to the teachings of WON. While composing this, I put these =
stocks to one more test. The Canslim Evaluator. I found it interesting =
that while all these stocks are floating on the top, the average score =
is an unimpressive 6.2 out of 10. In fact, only one was 8 or better: =
UOPX at 8. (FYI: Yes, there are 11 criteria on the Evaluator, but I =
throw out N--the fact a stock appears within the past 7 days on a Watch =
List is immaterial for ranking purposes, IMHO.)
=20
Your opinions will be highly valued. Thank you.
=20
Duke
=20
Everybody should believe in something - I believe I'll have =
another glass of great wine!
=20
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<DIV>I think you're right.</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----=20
<DIV style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A=20
href=3D"mailto:rolfh@mindspring.com" title=3Drolfh@mindspring.com>rolf=20
hertenstein</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, May 08, 2002 9:24 PM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Curious in Florida - FTD - slow=20
learner</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>For my edification, today was *not* an =
FTD because=20
of Monday's weak action</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>on various indices (intraday lows below =
that of the=20
previous beginning uptrend</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>starting Tues, 4/30). =
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>So, hypothetically, if Monday 5/6 had =
only been=20
down only a small amount</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>(rather than the -1.8 to -2.1% we saw =
on the DOW,=20
NASD NYSE, S&P, RUS2000)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>today would have made for =
an FTD.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Since Monday 5/6 *was* down =
substantially, the=20
counter starts with today's new</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>uptrend.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Right?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2> Rolf</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: =
0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net" =
title=3Dstkguru@bellsouth.net>Tom=20
Worley</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, May 08, 2002 =
7:01=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Curious =
in=20
Florida</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Duke, add to that we are looking for the FTD =
(not the=20
florist, Follow Thru Day) to arrive on the 4th to 10th day. I take =
that as=20
next no earlier than next Tuesday counts, and must happen by Wednesday =
of the=20
following week. If we get a follow thru rally tomorrow, it doesn't=20
count.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net">stkguru@bellsouth.net</A><BR>AIM:=20
TexWorley</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----=20
<DIV style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A=20
href=3D"mailto:dukemill@tampabay.rr.com" =
title=3Ddukemill@tampabay.rr.com>Duke=20
Miller</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, May 08, 2002 5:04 PM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] Curious in Florida</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D889010221-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>Thanks, =
Katherine. =20
As usual, you thread the ol' needle for us quite =
nicely.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D889010221-08052002><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D889010221-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>Correct me if =
I'm wrong,=20
but following today's big run, we now look for a 2% rise on above =
average=20
volume to declare an "Official" market turn upward. =20
Right?</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D889010221-08052002><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D889010221-08052002><FONT =
face=3DArial>Duke</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV align=3Dleft class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr =
lang=3Den-us><FONT=20
face=3DTahoma size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> <A =
=
href=3D"mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com">owner-canslim@lists.xmis=
sion.com</A>=20
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] <B>On Behalf Of =
</B>Katherine=20
Malm<BR><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, May 08, 2002 11:48 AM<BR><B>To:</B>=20
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Curious =
in=20
Florida<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV>Hi Duke,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I agree with you. Under all circumstances, stocks that =
outperform are=20
likely to continue to outperform...UNLESS....they are technically =
topping.=20
So, while the market is tanking in general, stocks that are =
outperforming=20
might be either consolidating or rising. The only thing that I would =
disagree on is that 9/11 or no, you need a healthy technical pattern =
and=20
proper entry (breakout or pullback) to enter. I look for =
stocks/groups that=20
are technically strong, then just use fundamentals as a sorting =
criteria. I=20
just don't think after a Bear market and economic recession =
that=20
you're more likely to find fundamental turnarounds and/or =
fundamentals that=20
stayed mildly strong rather than a bevy of stocks with hugely =
accelerating=20
fundamentals. The stocks that are going to do well are the ones that =
were=20
cleaning up their proverbial act during economic hard times and/or =
were able=20
to stay strong fundamentally during hard times. That, combined with=20
technical strength leads the way. With that in mind, I just weigh =
the=20
fundamentals to help sort the list of strong stocks, rather than =
eliminating=20
all stocks that don't meet each and every "average for big winners" =
numbers=20
from WON.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>PS....I'd also look for strong stocks in industries with =
GRS>=3D60 or=20
70. That means you'll also catch groups with *rising* technical =
strength.=20
The problem with sticking with the top 40 industries is that it =
doesn't=20
identify up and comers and tends to mask (filter out) strong stocks =
that are=20
leading the industry up. By the time the stock *gets* to the top, =
most of=20
the leaders are extended.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A href=3D"mailto:dukemill@tampabay.rr.com"=20
title=3Ddukemill@tampabay.rr.com>Duke Miller</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com>CANSLIM</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, May 08, =
2002 10:01=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] Curious =
in=20
Florida</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>Good =
morning=20
all:</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>Since =
most of=20
you know how I feel about present market environment, you'll =
be glad=20
to know this isn't about that. It's about AFTER =
"that!" =20
I'll explain:</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>Each day, =
I download=20
the Excel version of the Daily Screen from IBD. Then =
I "play"=20
with it for awhile. I sort various aspects to my =
personal=20
preferences: Industry Group Rank (eliminating all above 40); =
SMR=20
(eliminating all at C or worse); and so forth. Then I may =
sort them=20
by other factors--combined RS & EPS Ratings or Index of =
Current PE vs.=20
Projected--to arrive at a another cutoff =
point. =20
</FONT></SPAN><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT =
face=3DArial>After all=20
that, I put the remnants into a portfolio with that day's =
price. =20
Then I follow the action. </FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>What I'm =
seeing is an=20
amalgam of stocks, the majority of which keep re-appearing in =
my=20
final cuts. Some, more than I care to mention, I was shaken =
out of=20
earlier this year before going to all cash; some, more than I care =
to=20
mention, I wish I'd jumped on. They're the ones that =
when I=20
should have jumped on them (I don't have 20-20 hindsight like IBD =
does)=20
the right criteria weren't present (usually the darn =
charts). But=20
the fact remains, many of the same symbols are there. And =
they=20
aren't going away! </FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002></SPAN><SPAN=20
class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT =
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>Further, =
on May 6, a=20
truly awful day on all three of the big indexes, I reviewed my =
Daily=20
Screens portfolios to see which stocks suffered the =
least. The=20
list read like a who's-who of my Daily Screens Portfolios. =20
</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>So, =
h<SPAN=20
class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>ere's my =
question: If=20
these same names are hanging around like they are, day in and day =
out for=20
several months now, both on my sorted screens and in IBD =
editorial, does=20
it stand to reason that when the market turns, these stocks that =
have=20
exhibited such strength in a bad market should be the BIG winners =
when M=20
starts to head North?</FONT></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>I, like =
all of you,=20
hear over and over again that we should be watching for stocks =
forming=20
good bases at this time, blah, blah, blah. But it's my =
opinion 9/11=20
created one crazy environment for the markets and a lot of stocks =
we're=20
seeing making big gains these days are NOT conforming to the =
teachings of=20
WON. While composing this, </FONT></SPAN><SPAN=20
class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>I put these stocks =
to one more=20
test. The Canslim Evaluator. I found it interesting =
that while=20
all these stocks are floating on the top, the average score is an=20
unimpressive 6.2 out of 10. In fact, only one was 8 or =
better: =20
UOPX at 8. (FYI: Yes, there are 11 criteria on the =
Evaluator,=20
but I throw out N--the fact a stock appears within the past 7 days =
on a=20
Watch List is immaterial for ranking purposes, =
IMHO.)</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT face=3DArial>Your =
opinions will be=20
highly valued. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN =
class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT=20
face=3DArial>Thank you.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002><FONT=20
face=3DArial>Duke</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D827134813-08052002></SPAN><FONT =
size=3D2>Everybody should=20
believe in something - I believe I'll have another glass of great=20
wine!</DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT=20
face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></=
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