Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sun, 12 May 2002 07:30:30 -0400
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_00A8_01C1F986.E511FDE0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_00A9_01C1F986.E511FDE0" - ------=_NextPart_001_00A9_01C1F986.E511FDE0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable FOMC As expected, and in a unanimous vote, the Feds left rates = unchanged, as well as their market neutral stance. Indicators continue = to show recovery, especially in inventory replenishment, but end = consumer demand is still weak and will need to ensure a full and steady = recovery as the year progresses. This was also the first time the Feds = announced the actual vote the same day of the meeting. Best guess now is = no rate hike until the August meeting at the earliest, especially if = unemployment continues to rise thru July.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- ECONOMICS Productivity grew in the first quarter at an annual rate of 8.6%, well = over the nice 5.5% in Q4, and the highest rate in 19 years. Worker hours = dropped 1.9%, output grew 6.5%, which gives a strong positive to future = earnings, but doesn't help with unemployment. Expectations had been for = a growth of 7%. A drop in hours worked by self employed workers = contributed most of the 1.9% drop. Without that, the overall gain would = have been 7.4%. Wholesale inventories were unchanged in March, following the 0.9% drop = in Feb, continuing the trend of inventory replenishment. A drop of 0.4% = had been expected. Unit labor costs fell 5.4%, again biggest drop in 19 years, and another = strong indicator for future profits. New unemployment claims continue to fall, but remain over 400K on both = the weekly and 4 week moving average. PPI (Producer Price Index) dropped 0.2% overall, expectation was for a = rise of 0.4%. Biggest cause for the drop was food costs, despite a 2.5% = increase in energy costs. The core rate (without food and energy) met = expectations with a 0.1% rise. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES As always, I will mention specific basing formations, such as c&h, = double bottoms, or non-CANSLIM ones like LLUR (Lower Left Upper Right) = or flat line bases (marked as Bx where x indicates the number of weeks = IMO). Most stocks in this list will have both RS and EPS of 80 or = better, and be close to their 12 month high. I try to glance at the = earnings forecast, and eliminate any less than 20% for this year, but do = no other due diligence.=20 The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend slipped under 300. ABC - high handle AZO - c&h BBI - high handle BOBE - B5 BY - LLUR CECO - B3 CEDC - B2 DLTR - B2 ELTE - consolidation base, but gap down will be resistance FCFS - B3, low priced microcap FRED - LLUR GFF - LLUR ITRI - base on the handle? JNC - LLUR LION - B3 MCL - B5 MHK - c&h MHM - early LLUR OCAS - LLUR PETM - LLUR PORT - LLUR PRGX - nearly 10% past pivot from c&h PSTI - B2+, small cap, in my VR Fund RYAN - LLUR SUFI - B5 SVU - LLUR ULAB - high handle URBN - B3 WG - B3 Happy Hunting, Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_00A9_01C1F986.E511FDE0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2715.400" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>FOMC</STRONG> As expected, and in a = unanimous=20 vote, the Feds left rates unchanged, as well as their market neutral = stance.=20 Indicators continue to show recovery, especially in inventory = replenishment, but=20 end consumer demand is still weak and will need to ensure a full and = steady=20 recovery as the year progresses. This was also the first time the Feds = announced=20 the actual vote the same day of the meeting. Best guess now is no rate = hike=20 until the August meeting at the earliest, especially if unemployment = continues=20 to rise thru July.</FONT>=20 <HR> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ECONOMICS</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Productivity grew in the first quarter at an = annual rate=20 of 8.6%, well over the nice 5.5% in Q4, and the highest rate in 19 = years. Worker=20 hours dropped 1.9%, output grew 6.5%, which gives a strong positive to = future=20 earnings, but doesn't help with unemployment. Expectations had been for = a growth=20 of 7%. A drop in hours worked by self employed workers contributed most = of the=20 1.9% drop. Without that, the overall gain would have been = 7.4%.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Wholesale inventories were unchanged in March, = following=20 the 0.9% drop in Feb, continuing the trend of inventory replenishment. A = drop of=20 0.4% had been expected.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Unit labor costs fell 5.4%, again biggest drop = in 19=20 years, and another strong indicator for future profits.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>New unemployment claims continue to fall, but = remain over=20 400K on both the weekly and 4 week moving average.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>PPI (Producer Price Index) dropped 0.2% overall, = expectation was for a rise of 0.4%. Biggest cause for the drop was food = costs,=20 despite a 2.5% increase in energy costs. The core rate (without food and = energy)=20 met expectations with a 0.1% rise.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> <HR> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial> <DIV><STRONG>WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES</STRONG></DIV> <DIV>As always, I will mention specific basing formations, such as = c&h,=20 double bottoms, or non-CANSLIM ones like LLUR (Lower Left Upper Right) = or flat=20 line bases (marked as Bx where x indicates the number of weeks IMO). = Most stocks=20 in this list will have both RS and EPS of 80 or better, and be close to = their 12=20 month high. I try to glance at the earnings forecast, and eliminate any = less=20 than 20% for this year, but do no other due diligence.=20 <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend slipped=20 under 300.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>ABC - high handle</DIV> <DIV>AZO - c&h</DIV> <DIV>BBI - high handle</DIV> <DIV>BOBE - B5</DIV> <DIV>BY - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>CECO - B3</DIV> <DIV>CEDC - B2</DIV> <DIV>DLTR - B2</DIV> <DIV>ELTE - consolidation base, but gap down will be resistance</DIV> <DIV>FCFS - B3, low priced microcap</DIV> <DIV>FRED - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>GFF - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>ITRI - base on the handle?</DIV> <DIV>JNC - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>LION - B3</DIV> <DIV>MCL - B5</DIV> <DIV>MHK - c&h</DIV> <DIV>MHM - early LLUR</DIV> <DIV>OCAS - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>PETM - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>PORT - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>PRGX - nearly 10% past pivot from c&h</DIV> <DIV>PSTI - B2+, small cap, in my VR Fund</DIV> <DIV>RYAN - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>SUFI - B5</DIV> <DIV>SVU - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>ULAB - high handle</DIV> <DIV>URBN - B3</DIV> <DIV>WG - B3</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Happy Hunting,</DIV> <DIV></FONT><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV></DIV></DIV> <DIV><IMG alt=3D"" hspace=3D0 = src=3D"cid:00a701c1f9a8$6c1ee2f0$9300a8c0@TOMSBOX"=20 align=3Dbaseline border=3D0></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR></FONT><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net"><FONT=20 face=3DArial>stkguru@bellsouth.net</FONT></A><BR><FONT face=3DArial>AIM: = TexWorley</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_001_00A9_01C1F986.E511FDE0-- - ------=_NextPart_000_00A8_01C1F986.E511FDE0 Content-Type: image/gif; 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