Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Hill, Ernie" <Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M
Date: Fri, 17 May 2002 21:35:31 -0500
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Well the 5-7 low has held up and we are in the midst of the upswing I have
been anticipating, unfortunately despite the FTD I don't expect it to last
much longer.
The S&P is currently right in the middle of a heavy resistance area 1103 -
1111. Unless it can move through this resistance area with conviction this
move will likely be over in a matter of days if not already.
I still see the forecast I made on 5-9 as being the highest probable outcome
for the termination of this move. The most likely target is 1112 on 5-22.
NAZ doesn't look too good either. A 50% retracement of the move from the
high on 3-11-02 to the low on 5-7 would give a target price of 1753.26,
Thursday the NAZ hit an intraday high of 1759.33 and the intraday high for
today was 1754.22. In both instances the daily highs penetrated the trend
line drawn from the tops of the highs made on 3-11 and 4-17 and then closed
at or below this trend line.
Additionally a 38.2 % retracement (another Fibinocci number) of the larger
move from the high made on 1-9-02 to the low on 5-7 yields a target price of
1766 which is the exact level where the NAZ would on 5-21 intersect the
trend line drawn from the tops of the highs made on 1-9-02 and 3-11.
The NAZ like the S&P is about to or has already reached the end of this
current upswing in M.
E
- -----Original Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie
Sent: Thursday, May 09, 2002 4:38 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: [CANSLIM] M
Hi group,
Once again my turn signal criterion has been met by yesterday's price
action. Maybe this time the low made on 5-7 will hold. The coming reaction
to this current downtrend will have a hard time getting very far. I call it
a reaction because the downtrend was very technically damaging from my point
of view, and I don't see much chance of a fundamental change in trend, at
least not the way the market looks right now. If the coming reaction is
stronger than I anticipate then I may be forced to change my interpretation.
I see very strong resistance in the 1103 to 1111 area on the S&P. The
highest probability that I see for the top of this reaction is 1111 to occur
within four days either side of 5-22. If M is able to take out this
resistance level then the next most likely target from which to expect a
turn back down would be in the 1126 to 1137 range with the upper part of
that range being the most likely target.
E
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<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D3 color=3Dnavy face=3D"Times New Roman"><=
span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:navy'>Well the 5-7 low has held up and we a=
re in
the midst of the upswing I have been anticipating, unfortunately despite the
FTD I don’t expect it to last much longer.</span></font><font color=
=3Dnavy><span
style=3D'color:navy;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D3 color=3Dnavy face=3D"Times New Roman"><=
span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:navy'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![en=
dif]></span></font><font
color=3Dnavy><span style=3D'color:navy;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p=
></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D3 color=3Dnavy face=3D"Times New Roman"><=
span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:navy'>The S&P is currently right in the
middle of a heavy resistance area 1103 – 1111. Unless it can move thr=
ough this
resistance area with conviction this move will likely be over in a matter of
days if not already.</span></font><font color=3Dnavy><span style=3D'color:n=
avy;
mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D3 color=3Dnavy face=3D"Times New Roman"><=
span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:navy'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![en=
dif]></span></font><font
color=3Dnavy><span style=3D'color:navy;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p=
></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D3 color=3Dnavy face=3D"Times New Roman"><=
span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:navy'>I still see the forecast I made on 5-=
9 as
being the highest probable outcome for the termination of this move. The mo=
st
likely target is 1112 on 5-22.</span></font><font color=3Dnavy><span
style=3D'color:navy;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D3 color=3Dnavy face=3D"Times New Roman"><=
span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:navy'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![en=
dif]></span></font><font
color=3Dnavy><span style=3D'color:navy;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p=
></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D3 color=3Dnavy face=3D"Times New Roman"><=
span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:navy'>NAZ doesn’t look too good eithe=
r.<span
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>A 50% retracement of the move fro=
m the
high on 3-11-02 to the low on 5-7 would give a target price of 1753.26,
Thursday the NAZ hit an intraday high of 1759.33 and the intraday high for
today was 1754.22. In both instances the daily highs penetrated the trend l=
ine
drawn from the tops of the highs made on 3-11 and 4-17 and then closed at or
below this trend line.</span></font><font color=3Dnavy><span style=3D'color=
:navy;
mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D3 color=3Dnavy face=3D"Times New Roman"><=
span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:navy'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![en=
dif]></span></font><font
color=3Dnavy><span style=3D'color:navy;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p=
></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D3 color=3Dnavy face=3D"Times New Roman"><=
span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:navy'>Additionally a 38.2 % retracement (an=
other
Fibinocci number) of the larger move from the high made on 1-9-02 to the lo=
w on
5-7 yields a target price of 1766 which is the exact level where the NAZ wo=
uld
on 5-21 intersect the trend line drawn from the tops of the highs made on
1-9-02 and 3-11.</span></font><font color=3Dnavy><span style=3D'color:navy;
mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D3 color=3Dnavy face=3D"Times New Roman"><=
span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:navy'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![en=
dif]></span></font><font
color=3Dnavy><span style=3D'color:navy;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p=
></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D3 color=3Dnavy face=3D"Times New Roman"><=
span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:navy'>The NAZ like the S&P is about to =
or has
already reached the end of this current upswing in M.<span style=3D"mso-spa=
cerun:
yes"> </span></span></font><font color=3Dnavy><span style=3D'color:na=
vy;
mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D3 color=3Dnavy face=3D"Times New Roman"><=
span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:navy'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![en=
dif]></span></font><font
color=3Dnavy><span style=3D'color:navy;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p=
></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D3 color=3Dnavy face=3D"Times New Roman"><=
span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:navy'>E</span></font><span class=3DEmailSty=
le19><font
size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi=
- -font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle19><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'><![i=
f !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack
face=3DTahoma><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:blac=
k'>-----Original
Message-----<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>From:</span></b> Hill, Ernie <br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> Thursday, May 09, 2002=
4:38
PM<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b> canslim@lists.xmission.c=
om<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> [CANSLIM] M</span><=
/font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 face=3D"Time=
s New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p><=
/o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'=
>Hi
group,</span></font><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span style=
=3D'font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p><=
/span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'=
> </span></font><font
size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-fa=
mily:Arial;
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'=
>Once
again my turn signal criterion has been met by yesterday's price action. Ma=
ybe
this time the low made on 5-7 will hold. The coming reaction to this current
downtrend will have a hard time getting very far. I call it a reaction beca=
use
the downtrend was very technically damaging from my point of view, and I do=
n't
see much chance of a fundamental change in trend, at least not the way the
market looks right now. If the coming reaction is stronger than I anticipate
then I may be forced to change my interpretation.</span></font><font size=
=3D2
color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Aria=
l;
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'=
> </span></font><font
size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-fa=
mily:Arial;
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'=
>I see
very strong resistance in the 1103 to 1111 area on the S&P. The highest
probability that I see for the top of this reaction is 1111 to occur within
four days either side of 5-22. If M is able to take out this resistance lev=
el then
the next most likely target from which to expect a turn back down would be =
in
the 1126 to 1137 range with the upper part of that range being the most lik=
ely
target.</span></font><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:windo=
wtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'=
> </span></font><font
size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-fa=
mily:Arial;
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'=
>E</span></font><font
size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-fa=
mily:Arial;
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dblack
face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Courier N=
ew";
mso-fareast-font-family:"Courier New";color:black'><br>
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