From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
Date: Fri, 17 May 2002 22:41:40 -0400
Previous Article (by Author): Re: [CANSLIM] our stuff "Tom Worley"
Top of Thread: RE: [CANSLIM] M "Hill, Ernie"
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Ernie,
Have you ever tried to apply the same type review to the Russell 2000, =
or any other small cap index? If so, I would be interested in the =
results.
- ----- Original Message -----=20
From: Hill, Ernie=20
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=20
Sent: Friday, May 17, 2002 10:35 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M
Well the 5-7 low has held up and we are in the midst of the upswing I =
have been anticipating, unfortunately despite the FTD I don't expect it =
to last much longer.
=20
The S&P is currently right in the middle of a heavy resistance area 1103 =
- - 1111. Unless it can move through this resistance area with conviction =
this move will likely be over in a matter of days if not already.
=20
I still see the forecast I made on 5-9 as being the highest probable =
outcome for the termination of this move. The most likely target is 1112 =
on 5-22.
=20
NAZ doesn't look too good either. A 50% retracement of the move from =
the high on 3-11-02 to the low on 5-7 would give a target price of =
1753.26, Thursday the NAZ hit an intraday high of 1759.33 and the =
intraday high for today was 1754.22. In both instances the daily highs =
penetrated the trend line drawn from the tops of the highs made on 3-11 =
and 4-17 and then closed at or below this trend line.
=20
Additionally a 38.2 % retracement (another Fibinocci number) of the =
larger move from the high made on 1-9-02 to the low on 5-7 yields a =
target price of 1766 which is the exact level where the NAZ would on =
5-21 intersect the trend line drawn from the tops of the highs made on =
1-9-02 and 3-11.
=20
The NAZ like the S&P is about to or has already reached the end of this =
current upswing in M. =20
=20
E
=20
- -----Original Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie=20
Sent: Thursday, May 09, 2002 4:38 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: [CANSLIM] M
=20
Hi group,
=20
Once again my turn signal criterion has been met by yesterday's price =
action. Maybe this time the low made on 5-7 will hold. The coming =
reaction to this current downtrend will have a hard time getting very =
far. I call it a reaction because the downtrend was very technically =
damaging from my point of view, and I don't see much chance of a =
fundamental change in trend, at least not the way the market looks right =
now. If the coming reaction is stronger than I anticipate then I may be =
forced to change my interpretation.
=20
I see very strong resistance in the 1103 to 1111 area on the S&P. The =
highest probability that I see for the top of this reaction is 1111 to =
occur within four days either side of 5-22. If M is able to take out =
this resistance level then the next most likely target from which to =
expect a turn back down would be in the 1126 to 1137 range with the =
upper part of that range being the most likely target.
=20
E
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Ernie,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Have you ever tried to apply the same type =
review to the=20
Russell 2000, or any other small cap index? If so, I would be interested =
in the=20
results.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----=20
<DIV style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A=20
title=3DErnie.Hill@ElPaso.com =
href=3D"mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com">Hill, Ernie</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
href=3D"mailto:'canslim@lists.xmission.com'">'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=
</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Friday, May 17, 2002 10:35 PM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] M</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV class=3DSection1>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dnavy =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: navy">Well the 5-7 low has held up and =
we are in=20
the midst of the upswing I have been anticipating, unfortunately despite =
the FTD=20
I don=92t expect it to last much longer.</SPAN></FONT><FONT =
color=3Dnavy><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: navy; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dnavy =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: navy"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dnavy><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: navy; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dnavy =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: navy">The S&P is currently right in =
the=20
middle of a heavy resistance area 1103 =96 1111. Unless it can move =
through this=20
resistance area with conviction this move will likely be over in a =
matter of=20
days if not already.</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=3Dnavy><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: navy; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dnavy =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: navy"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dnavy><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: navy; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dnavy =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: navy">I still see the forecast I made =
on 5-9 as=20
being the highest probable outcome for the termination of this move. The =
most=20
likely target is 1112 on 5-22.</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=3Dnavy><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: navy; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dnavy =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: navy"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dnavy><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: navy; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dnavy =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: navy">NAZ doesn=92t look too good =
either.<SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>A 50% retracement of the move =
from the=20
high on 3-11-02 to the low on 5-7 would give a target price of 1753.26, =
Thursday=20
the NAZ hit an intraday high of 1759.33 and the intraday high for today =
was=20
1754.22. In both instances the daily highs penetrated the trend line =
drawn from=20
the tops of the highs made on 3-11 and 4-17 and then closed at or below =
this=20
trend line.</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=3Dnavy><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: navy; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dnavy =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: navy"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dnavy><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: navy; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dnavy =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: navy">Additionally a 38.2 % retracement =
(another=20
Fibinocci number) of the larger move from the high made on 1-9-02 to the =
low on=20
5-7 yields a target price of 1766 which is the exact level where the NAZ =
would=20
on 5-21 intersect the trend line drawn from the tops of the highs made =
on 1-9-02=20
and 3-11.</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=3Dnavy><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: navy; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dnavy =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: navy"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dnavy><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: navy; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dnavy =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: navy">The NAZ like the S&P is about =
to or has=20
already reached the end of this current upswing in M.<SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN></FONT><FONT =
color=3Dnavy><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: navy; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dnavy =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: navy"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dnavy><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: navy; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dnavy =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: navy">E</SPAN></FONT><SPAN=20
class=3DEmailStyle19><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle19><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3Dnavy=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3Dblack=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Tahoma">-----Original=20
Message-----<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">From:</SPAN></B> =
Hill, Ernie=20
<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent:</SPAN></B> Thursday, May =
09, 2002=20
4:38 PM<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">To:</SPAN></B>=20
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject:</SPAN></B> [CANSLIM] =
M</SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3Dblack=20
size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">Hi=20
group,</SPAN></FONT><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3Dblack=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3Dblack=20
size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">Once=20
again my turn signal criterion has been met by yesterday's price action. =
Maybe=20
this time the low made on 5-7 will hold. The coming reaction to this =
current=20
downtrend will have a hard time getting very far. I call it a reaction =
because=20
the downtrend was very technically damaging from my point of view, and I =
don't=20
see much chance of a fundamental change in trend, at least not the way =
the=20
market looks right now. If the coming reaction is stronger than I =
anticipate=20
then I may be forced to change my interpretation.</SPAN></FONT><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3Dblack=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3Dblack=20
size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">I see=20
very strong resistance in the 1103 to 1111 area on the S&P. The =
highest=20
probability that I see for the top of this reaction is 1111 to occur =
within four=20
days either side of 5-22. If M is able to take out this resistance level =
then=20
the next most likely target from which to expect a turn back down would =
be in=20
the 1126 to 1137 range with the upper part of that range being the most =
likely=20
target.</SPAN></FONT><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3Dblack=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
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