RE: [CANSLIM] M

From: "Hill, Ernie" <Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M
Date: Fri, 17 May 2002 21:46:16 -0500
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No I haven't. Probably should though. If I can find the time I'll give it a
shot.
 
E
 
- -----Original Message-----
From: Tom Worley [mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net]
Sent: Friday, May 17, 2002 9:42 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
 
Ernie,
 
Have you ever tried to apply the same type review to the Russell 2000, or
any other small cap index? If so, I would be interested in the results.
 
- ----- Original Message ----- 

From: Hill, Ernie <mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com>  
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' <mailto:'canslim@lists.xmission.com'>  
Sent: Friday, May 17, 2002 10:35 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M
 
Well the 5-7 low has held up and we are in the midst of the upswing I have
been anticipating, unfortunately despite the FTD I don't expect it to last
much longer.
 
The S&P is currently right in the middle of a heavy resistance area 1103 -
1111. Unless it can move through this resistance area with conviction this
move will likely be over in a matter of days if not already.
 
I still see the forecast I made on 5-9 as being the highest probable outcome
for the termination of this move. The most likely target is 1112 on 5-22.
 
NAZ doesn't look too good either.  A 50% retracement of the move from the
high on 3-11-02 to the low on 5-7 would give a target price of 1753.26,
Thursday the NAZ hit an intraday high of 1759.33 and the intraday high for
today was 1754.22. In both instances the daily highs penetrated the trend
line drawn from the tops of the highs made on 3-11 and 4-17 and then closed
at or below this trend line.
 
Additionally a 38.2 % retracement (another Fibinocci number) of the larger
move from the high made on 1-9-02 to the low on 5-7 yields a target price of
1766 which is the exact level where the NAZ would on 5-21 intersect the
trend line drawn from the tops of the highs made on 1-9-02 and 3-11.
 
The NAZ like the S&P is about to or has already reached the end of this
current upswing in M.  
 
E
 
- -----Original Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie 
Sent: Thursday, May 09, 2002 4:38 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: [CANSLIM] M
 
Hi group,
 
Once again my turn signal criterion has been met by yesterday's price
action. Maybe this time the low made on 5-7 will hold. The coming reaction
to this current downtrend will have a hard time getting very far. I call it
a reaction because the downtrend was very technically damaging from my point
of view, and I don't see much chance of a fundamental change in trend, at
least not the way the market looks right now. If the coming reaction is
stronger than I anticipate then I may be forced to change my interpretation.
 
I see very strong resistance in the 1103 to 1111 area on the S&P. The
highest probability that I see for the top of this reaction is 1111 to occur
within four days either side of 5-22. If M is able to take out this
resistance level then the next most likely target from which to expect a
turn back down would be in the 1126 to 1137 range with the upper part of
that range being the most likely target.
 
E


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<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 color=3D"#99=
3366"
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font=
- -family:
Arial'>No I haven&#8217;t. Probably should though. If I can find the time I=
&#8217;ll give
it a shot.<o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 color=3D"#99=
3366"
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font=
- -family:
Arial'><![if !supportEmptyParas]>&nbsp;<![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font><=
/span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 color=3D"#99=
3366"
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font=
- -family:
Arial'>E<o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 color=3D"#99=
3366"
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font=
- -family:
Arial'><![if !supportEmptyParas]>&nbsp;<![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font><=
/span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack
face=3DTahoma><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:blac=
k'>-----Original
Message-----<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>From:</span></b> Tom Worley
[mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net]<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> Friday, May 17, 2002 9=
:42 PM<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b> canslim@lists.xmission.c=
om<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> Re: [CANSLIM] M</sp=
an></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 face=3D"Time=
s New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'><![if !supportEmptyParas]>&nbsp;<![endif]><o:p><=
/o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dblack
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'=
>Ernie,</span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dblack
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>&nbsp=
;</span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dblack
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'=
>Have
you ever tried to apply the same type review to the Russell 2000, or any ot=
her
small cap index? If so, I would be interested in the results.</span></font>=
<font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dblack
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>&nbsp=
;</span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'=
>-----
Original Message -----=20

<div style=3D'font-color:black'></span></font><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black;
mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in;background:#E4E4E4'><b><font=
 size=3D2
color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Aria=
l;
color:black;font-weight:bold'>From:</span></font></b><font size=3D2 color=
=3Dblack
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'=
> <a
href=3D"mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com" title=3D"Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com">Hill,=
 Ernie</a>
</span></font><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span style=3D'font=
- -size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span><=
/font></p>

</div>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><b><font size=3D2 color=3Db=
lack
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black;
font-weight:bold'>To:</span></font></b><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3D=
Arial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'> <a
href=3D"mailto:'canslim@lists.xmission.com'" title=3D"canslim@lists.xmissio=
n.com">'canslim@lists.xmission.com'</a>
</span></font><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span style=3D'font=
- -size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span><=
/font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><b><font size=3D2 color=3Db=
lack
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black;
font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></font></b><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=
=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'> Friday, May 17, 2=
002
10:35 PM</span></font><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:windo=
wtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><b><font size=3D2 color=3Db=
lack
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black;
font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></font></b><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'=
> RE:
[CANSLIM] M</span></font><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:windo=
wtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dblack
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:black'><![if=
 !supportEmptyParas]>&nbsp;<![endif]></span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dnavy
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:navy'>Well t=
he 5-7
low has held up and we are in the midst of the upswing I have been
anticipating, unfortunately despite the FTD I don't expect it to last much
longer.</span></font><font color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-col=
or-alt:
windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dnavy
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:navy'>&nbsp;=
</span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dnavy
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:navy'>The S&=
amp;P is
currently right in the middle of a heavy resistance area 1103 - 1111. Unles=
s it
can move through this resistance area with conviction this move will likely=
 be
over in a matter of days if not already.</span></font><font color=3Dblack><=
span
style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dnavy
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:navy'>&nbsp;=
</span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dnavy
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:navy'>I stil=
l see
the forecast I made on 5-9 as being the highest probable outcome for the
termination of this move. The most likely target is 1112 on 5-22.</span></f=
ont><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dnavy
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:navy'>&nbsp;=
</span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dnavy
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:navy'>NAZ do=
esn't
look too good either.<span style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>A 50%
retracement of the move from the high on 3-11-02 to the low on 5-7 would gi=
ve a
target price of 1753.26, Thursday the NAZ hit an intraday high of 1759.33 a=
nd
the intraday high for today was 1754.22. In both instances the daily highs
penetrated the trend line drawn from the tops of the highs made on 3-11 and
4-17 and then closed at or below this trend line.</span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dnavy
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:navy'>&nbsp;=
</span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dnavy
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:navy'>Additi=
onally a
38.2 % retracement (another Fibinocci number) of the larger move from the h=
igh
made on 1-9-02 to the low on 5-7 yields a target price of 1766 which is the
exact level where the NAZ would on 5-21 intersect the trend line drawn from=
 the
tops of the highs made on 1-9-02 and 3-11.</span></font><font color=3Dblack=
><span
style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dnavy
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:navy'>&nbsp;=
</span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dnavy
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:navy'>The NA=
Z like
the S&amp;P is about to or has already reached the end of this current upsw=
ing
in M.<span style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span></span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dnavy
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:navy'>&nbsp;=
</span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dnavy
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:navy'>E</spa=
n></font><span
class=3DEmailStyle20><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span style=
=3D'font-size:
10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p></o:p></span></fon=
t></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><span class=3DEmailStyle20>=
<font
size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi=
- -font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dbla=
ck
face=3DTahoma><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:blac=
k'>-----Original
Message-----<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>From:</span></b> Hill, Ernie <br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> Thursday, May 09, 2002=
 4:38
PM<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b> canslim@lists.xmission.c=
om<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> [CANSLIM] M</span><=
/font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dbla=
ck
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>&nbsp=
;</span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dbla=
ck
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'=
>Hi
group,</span></font><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span style=
=3D'font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p><=
/span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dbla=
ck
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'=
>&nbsp;</span></font><font
size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-fa=
mily:Arial;
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dbla=
ck
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'=
>Once again
my turn signal criterion has been met by yesterday's price action. Maybe th=
is
time the low made on 5-7 will hold. The coming reaction to this current
downtrend will have a hard time getting very far. I call it a reaction beca=
use
the downtrend was very technically damaging from my point of view, and I do=
n't
see much chance of a fundamental change in trend, at least not the way the
market looks right now. If the coming reaction is stronger than I anticipate
then I may be forced to change my interpretation.</span></font><font size=
=3D2
color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Aria=
l;
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dbla=
ck
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'=
>&nbsp;</span></font><font
size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-fa=
mily:Arial;
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dbla=
ck
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'=
>I see
very strong resistance in the 1103 to 1111 area on the S&amp;P. The highest
probability that I see for the top of this reaction is 1111 to occur within
four days either side of 5-22. If M is able to take out this resistance lev=
el
then the next most likely target from which to expect a turn back down woul=
d be
in the 1126 to 1137 range with the upper part of that range being the most
likely target.</span></font><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:windo=
wtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dbla=
ck
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'=
>&nbsp;</span></font><font
size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-fa=
mily:Arial;
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dbla=
ck
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'=
>E</span></font><font
size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-fa=
mily:Arial;
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dbla=
ck
face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Courier N=
ew";
mso-fareast-font-family:"Courier New";color:black'><br>
<br>
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*****************************************************************</span></c=
ode><br>
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<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dblack
face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Courier N=
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*****************************************************************</span></c=
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<code><span style=3D'mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>T=
his
email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso </span></code><br>
<code><span style=3D'mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>C=
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*****************************************************************</span></c=
ode></span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
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