Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Hill, Ernie" <Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M
Date: Tue, 21 May 2002 20:36:54 -0500
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It appears that the high turn has been made. On 5-17 we closed at 1106.59
and then again touched that level on an intra-day basis yesterday. The turn
has apparently come early in the window just 4.41 points shy of the
projected price level. There is a reasonable possibility that the market
will move back up near the turn high over the next couple of days before
resuming the move down. There is a small chance that the market may even
slightly exceed the high and actually make the turn later in the window. If
this happens don't be fooled it is only a head fake.
The next low turn has two possible time windows for the turn. The first and
most likely window is within four days of 6-4. The target price range is
1027 to 1034. 1.382 times the move from 5-7 to 5-17 yields 79.51 points
subtract this number from the high of 1106.59 and we arrive at the low
target of 1027.08. A 61.8% retracement of the move from 9-21 to 1-9 yields a
target price of 1033.46. If this projected down move does terminate in the
projected target range, it has the potential to be the end point of the
correction for the entire move from 9-21 to 1-9. And could set the stage for
a significant and sustainable move up.
E
- -----Original Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie
Sent: Thursday, May 09, 2002 4:38 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: [CANSLIM] M
Hi group,
Once again my turn signal criterion has been met by yesterday's price
action. Maybe this time the low made on 5-7 will hold. The coming reaction
to this current downtrend will have a hard time getting very far. I call it
a reaction because the downtrend was very technically damaging from my point
of view, and I don't see much chance of a fundamental change in trend, at
least not the way the market looks right now. If the coming reaction is
stronger than I anticipate then I may be forced to change my interpretation.
I see very strong resistance in the 1103 to 1111 area on the S&P. The
highest probability that I see for the top of this reaction is 1111 to occur
within four days either side of 5-22. If M is able to take out this
resistance level then the next most likely target from which to expect a
turn back down would be in the 1126 to 1137 range with the upper part of
that range being the most likely target.
E
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<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle20><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>It a=
ppears
that the high turn has been made. On 5-17 we closed at 1106.59 and then aga=
in
touched that level on an intra-day basis yesterday. The turn has apparently=
come
early in the window just 4.41 points shy of the projected price level. Ther=
e is
a reasonable possibility that the market will move back up near the turn hi=
gh
over the next couple of days before resuming the move down. There is a small
chance that the market may even slightly exceed the high and actually make =
the
turn later in the window. If this happens don’t be fooled it is only =
a head
fake.<o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle20><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'><![i=
f !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle20><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>The =
next
low turn has two possible time windows for the turn. The first and most lik=
ely
window is within four days of 6-4. The target price range is 1027 to 1034. =
1.382
times the move from 5-7 to 5-17 yields 79.51 points subtract this number fr=
om
the high of 1106.59 and we arrive at the low target of 1027.08. A 61.8%
retracement of the move from 9-21 to 1-9 yields a target price of 1033.46. =
If
this projected down move does terminate in the projected target range, it h=
as
the potential to be the end point of the correction for the entire move from
9-21 to 1-9. And could set the stage for a significant and sustainable move=
up.<o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle20><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'><![i=
f !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle20><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>E<o:=
p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack
face=3DTahoma><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:blac=
k'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack
face=3DTahoma><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:blac=
k'>-----Original
Message-----<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>From:</span></b> Hill, Ernie <br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> Thursday, May 09, 2002=
4:38
PM<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b> canslim@lists.xmission.c=
om<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> [CANSLIM] M</span><=
/font><font
color=3Dnavy><span style=3D'color:navy;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p=
></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dnavy
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:navy'><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]></span></font><font
color=3Dnavy><span style=3D'color:navy;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p=
></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'=
>Hi
group,</span></font><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span style=3D=
'font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></=
span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'=
> </span></font><font
size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-fam=
ily:Arial;
color:navy;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'=
>Once
again my turn signal criterion has been met by yesterday's price action. Ma=
ybe
this time the low made on 5-7 will hold. The coming reaction to this current
downtrend will have a hard time getting very far. I call it a reaction beca=
use
the downtrend was very technically damaging from my point of view, and I do=
n't
see much chance of a fundamental change in trend, at least not the way the
market looks right now. If the coming reaction is stronger than I anticipate
then I may be forced to change my interpretation.</span></font><font size=
=3D2
color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:navy;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'=
> </span></font><font
size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-fam=
ily:Arial;
color:navy;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'=
>I see
very strong resistance in the 1103 to 1111 area on the S&P. The highest
probability that I see for the top of this reaction is 1111 to occur within
four days either side of 5-22. If M is able to take out this resistance lev=
el
then the next most likely target from which to expect a turn back down woul=
d be
in the 1126 to 1137 range with the upper part of that range being the most
likely target.</span></font><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy;mso-color-alt:window=
text'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'=
> </span></font><font
size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-fam=
ily:Arial;
color:navy;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'=
>E</span></font><font
size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-fam=
ily:Arial;
color:navy;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dblack
face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Courier N=
ew";
mso-fareast-font-family:"Courier New";color:black'><br style=3D'mso-special=
- -character:
line-break'>
<![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]><br style=3D'mso-special-character:line-bre=
ak'>
<![endif]></span></font><font color=3Dnavy><span style=3D'color:navy;mso-co=
lor-alt:
windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
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