[CANSLIM] M longer term

From: "Hill, Ernie" <Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com>
Subject: [CANSLIM] M longer term
Date: Wed, 22 May 2002 23:05:59 -0500
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HI group,

I am trying to send a chart of the weekly S&P I hope it works out. Normally
my technical focus is on a much shorter time frame, but when I saw that we
might be about to complete the correction of the move from 9-21 to 1-9, I
thought I would take a little longer term perspective.

In this chart I have drawn a trend line from the bottom of the first move
down from the March 2000 high connecting lows made in March of 2001 and
September of 2001. I have also drawn a trend line from the top of the first
upward reaction to the initial down move from the March 2000 high and
connected it to the high made in May of 2001.

As you can see these trend lines clearly define the trading channel of the
bear market. Looking at this chart the first indication we have that the
bear market is over, is the penetration of the top trend line and the fact
that the market has traded outside the bear market channel for most of this
year.

My current time frame for the next low turning point is within four days of
6-4. This time frame will be reached on this chart in the next two to three
bars. Notice where my target price range (1034-1027) for the next low
turning point falls on this chart. If during the time frame of the next two
to three bars my projected price range is met it will fall just above the
upper trend line. 

From an Elliott wave standpoint the move from 9-21 to 1-9 could be
interpreted as a wave one impulse wave, followed by a simple A-B-C zig zag
correction as labeled on the chart. With the "C" wave terminating at my
projected low turning point, completing impulse wave two, and setting the
stage for impulse wave three to begin. Three waves are usually dynamic in
nature and longer in duration than one and five waves.

In conclusion what I see in the chart patterns and in my analysis is the
early dynamic stages of a new "BULL" market. If my projected low turning
point is made in the target price range that I have forecast it will
complete a very neat technical package, which I believe will usher in happy
times for CANSLIMer's as well as anyone else who is long in the market.

E

PS: If you missed what I posted yesterday about M this post will be harder
for you to follow as it is a follow up to yesterday's analysis.



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<TITLE>M longer term</TITLE>
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<P ALIGN=3DLEFT><FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial">HI group,</=
FONT></P>

<P ALIGN=3DLEFT><FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial">I am trying=
 to send a chart of the weekly S&amp;P I hope it works out. Normally my tec=
hnical focus is on a much shorter time frame, but when I saw that we might =
be about to complete the correction of the move from 9-21 to 1-9, I thought=
 I would take a little longer term perspective.</FONT></P>

<P ALIGN=3DLEFT><FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial">In this cha=
rt I have drawn a trend line from the bottom of the first move down from th=
e March 2000 high connecting lows made in March of 2001 and September of 20=
01. I have also drawn a trend line from the top of the first upward reactio=
n to the initial down move from the March 2000 high and connected it to the=
 high made in May of 2001.</FONT></P>

<P ALIGN=3DLEFT><FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial">As you can =
see these trend lines clearly define the trading channel of the bear market=
. Looking at this chart the first indication we have that the bear market i=
s over, is the penetration of the top trend line and the fact that the mark=
et has traded outside the bear market channel for most of this year.</FONT>=
</P>

<P ALIGN=3DLEFT><FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial">My current =
time frame for the next low turning point is within four days of 6-4</FONT>=
<FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial">.</FONT><FONT COLOR=3D"#000=
000" SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial"></FONT> <FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" SIZE=3D2 FACE=
=3D"Arial">T</FONT><FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial">his time=
 frame will be reached on this chart in the next two to three bars. Notice =
where my target price range (1034-1027) for the next low turning point fall=
s on this chart. If during the time frame of the next two to three bars my =
projected price range is met it will fall just above the upper trend line. =
</FONT></P>

<P ALIGN=3DLEFT><FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial">From an Ell=
iott wave standpoint</FONT><FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial">=
 the move from 9-21 to 1-9 could be interpreted as a wave one impulse wave,=
 followed by a simple A-B-C zig zag correction as</FONT> <FONT COLOR=3D"#00=
0000" SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial">labeled</FONT><FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" SIZE=3D=
2 FACE=3D"Arial"> on the chart.</FONT> <FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" SIZE=3D2 FAC=
E=3D"Arial">With the</FONT> <FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial"=
>"</FONT><FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial">C</FONT><FONT COLO=
R=3D"#000000" SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial">"</FONT><FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" SIZE=
=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial"> wave terminating at my projected</FONT> <FONT COLOR=3D=
"#000000" SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial">low</FONT> <FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" SIZE=
=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial">turning point</FONT><FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" SIZE=3D2 FA=
CE=3D"Arial">, completing impulse wave two, and setting the stage for impul=
se wave three to begin.</FONT> <FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Ari=
al">Three waves are usually dynamic in nature and longer in duration than o=
ne and five waves.</FONT></P>

<P ALIGN=3DLEFT><FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial">In conclusi=
on what I see in the chart patterns and in my analysis</FONT> <FONT COLOR=
=3D"#000000" SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial">is the early dynamic stage</FONT><FONT=
 COLOR=3D"#000000" SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial">s</FONT><FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" =
SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial"> of a new</FONT> <FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" SIZE=3D2 F=
ACE=3D"Arial">"</FONT><FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial">BULL<=
/FONT><FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial">"</FONT><FONT COLOR=
=3D"#000000" SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial"> market. I</FONT><FONT COLOR=3D"#00000=
0" SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial">f my projected low turning point is made in the =
target price range that I have forecast</FONT><FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" SIZE=
=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial"> it will complete a very neat technical package, which =
I</FONT> <FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial">believe</FONT><FON=
T COLOR=3D"#000000" SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial"> will usher in happy times for =
CANSLIMer</FONT><FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial">'</FONT><FO=
NT COLOR=3D"#000000" SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial">s as well as anyone else who i=
s long in t</FONT><FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial">he market=
.</FONT></P>

<P ALIGN=3DLEFT><FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial">E</FONT></P>

<P ALIGN=3DLEFT><FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial">PS: If you =
missed</FONT> <FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial">what I posted=
 yesterday</FONT><FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial"> about M</=
FONT> <FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial">this post will be har=
der for you to follow as it is a follow up to yesterday</FONT><FONT COLOR=
=3D"#000000" SIZE=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial">'</FONT><FONT COLOR=3D"#000000" SIZE=
=3D2 FACE=3D"Arial">s analysis.</FONT></P>

<P ALIGN=3DLEFT></P>

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