Re: [CANSLIM] M longer term

From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M longer term
Date: Thu, 23 May 2002 09:08:53 -0400

Previous Article (by Author): RE: [CANSLIM] M longer term "Hill, Ernie"
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M longer termthanks, Ernie

- ----- Original Message -----=20
From: Hill, Ernie=20
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=20
Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002 8:21 AM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M longer term


Another try with the chart.

=20

=20

=20

- -----Original Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie=20
Sent: Wednesday, May 22, 2002 11:06 PM
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'
Subject: [CANSLIM] M longer term

=20

HI group,

I am trying to send a chart of the weekly S&P I hope it works out. =
Normally my technical focus is on a much shorter time frame, but when I =
saw that we might be about to complete the correction of the move from =
9-21 to 1-9, I thought I would take a little longer term perspective.

In this chart I have drawn a trend line from the bottom of the first =
move down from the March 2000 high connecting lows made in March of 2001 =
and September of 2001. I have also drawn a trend line from the top of =
the first upward reaction to the initial down move from the March 2000 =
high and connected it to the high made in May of 2001.

As you can see these trend lines clearly define the trading channel of =
the bear market. Looking at this chart the first indication we have that =
the bear market is over, is the penetration of the top trend line and =
the fact that the market has traded outside the bear market channel for =
most of this year.

My current time frame for the next low turning point is within four days =
of 6-4. This time frame will be reached on this chart in the next two to =
three bars. Notice where my target price range (1034-1027) for the next =
low turning point falls on this chart. If during the time frame of the =
next two to three bars my projected price range is met it will fall just =
above the upper trend line.=20

From an Elliott wave standpoint the move from 9-21 to 1-9 could be =
interpreted as a wave one impulse wave, followed by a simple A-B-C zig =
zag correction as labeled on the chart. With the "C" wave terminating at =
my projected low turning point, completing impulse wave two, and setting =
the stage for impulse wave three to begin. Three waves are usually =
dynamic in nature and longer in duration than one and five waves.

In conclusion what I see in the chart patterns and in my analysis is the =
early dynamic stages of a new "BULL" market. If my projected low turning =
point is made in the target price range that I have forecast it will =
complete a very neat technical package, which I believe will usher in =
happy times for CANSLIMer's as well as anyone else who is long in the =
market.

E

PS: If you missed what I posted yesterday about M this post will be =
harder for you to follow as it is a follow up to yesterday's analysis.



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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>thanks, Ernie</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----=20
<DIV style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A=20
title=3DErnie.Hill@ElPaso.com =
href=3D"mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com">Hill, Ernie</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
href=3D"mailto:'canslim@lists.xmission.com'">'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=
</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, May 23, 2002 8:21 AM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] M longer term</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV class=3DSection1>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DGramE><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Another try =
with the=20
chart.</SPAN></FONT></SPAN><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DTahoma =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">-----Original=20
Message-----<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">From:</SPAN></B> =
Hill, Ernie=20
<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent:</SPAN></B> Wednesday, May =
22, 2002=20
11:06 PM<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">To:</SPAN></B> <A=20
href=3D"mailto:'canslim@lists.xmission.com'">'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=
</A><BR><B><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject:</SPAN></B> [CANSLIM] M longer=20
term</SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dblack =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">HI=20
group,</SPAN></FONT><o:p></o:p></P>
<P style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dblack =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">I am trying =
to send a=20
chart of the weekly S&amp;P I hope it works out. Normally my technical =
focus is=20
on a much shorter time frame, but when I saw that we might be about to =
complete=20
the correction of the move from 9-21 to 1-9, I thought I would take a =
little=20
longer term perspective.</SPAN></FONT><o:p></o:p></P>
<P style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dblack =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">In this =
chart I have=20
drawn a trend line from the bottom of the first move down from the March =
2000=20
high connecting lows made in March of 2001 and September of 2001. I have =
also=20
drawn a trend line from the top of the first upward reaction to the =
initial down=20
move from the March 2000 high and connected it to the high made in May =
of=20
2001.</SPAN></FONT><o:p></o:p></P>
<P style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dblack =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">As you can =
see these=20
trend lines clearly define the trading channel of the bear market. =
Looking at=20
this chart the first indication we have that the bear market is over, is =
the=20
penetration of the top trend line and the fact that the market has =
traded=20
outside the bear market channel for most of this=20
year.</SPAN></FONT><o:p></o:p></P>
<P style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dblack =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">My current =
time frame=20
for the next low turning point is within four days of 6-4.</SPAN></FONT> =
<FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">This time =
frame will=20
be reached on this chart in the next two to three bars. Notice where my =
target=20
price range (1034-1027) for the next low turning point falls on this =
chart. If=20
during the time frame of the next two to three bars my projected price =
range is=20
met it will fall just above the upper trend line. =
</SPAN></FONT><o:p></o:p></P>
<P style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dblack =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">From an =
Elliott wave=20
standpoint the move from 9-21 to 1-9 could be interpreted as a wave one =
impulse=20
wave, followed by a simple A-B-C zig zag correction as</SPAN></FONT> =
<FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">labeled on =
the=20
chart.</SPAN></FONT> <FONT face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">With =
the</SPAN></FONT>=20
<FONT face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">"C" wave =
terminating=20
at my projected</SPAN></FONT> <FONT face=3DArial color=3Dblack =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">low</SPAN></FONT>=20
<FONT face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">turning =
point,=20
completing impulse wave two, and setting the stage for impulse wave =
three to=20
begin.</SPAN></FONT> <FONT face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Three waves =
are=20
usually dynamic in nature and longer in duration than one and five=20
waves.</SPAN></FONT><o:p></o:p></P>
<P style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dblack =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">In =
conclusion what I=20
see in the chart patterns and in my analysis</SPAN></FONT> <FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">is the early =
dynamic=20
stages of a new</SPAN></FONT> <FONT face=3DArial color=3Dblack =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">"BULL" =
market. If my=20
projected low turning point is made in the target price range that I =
have=20
forecast it will complete a very neat technical package, which =
I</SPAN></FONT>=20
<FONT face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">believe will =
usher in=20
happy times for CANSLIMer's as well as anyone else who is long in the=20
market.</SPAN></FONT><o:p></o:p></P>
<P style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dblack =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">E</SPAN></FONT><o:p></o:p></P>
<P style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dblack =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">PS: If you=20
missed</SPAN></FONT> <FONT face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">what I =
posted=20
yesterday about M</SPAN></FONT> <FONT face=3DArial color=3Dblack =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">this post =
will be=20
harder for you to follow as it is a follow up to yesterday's=20
analysis.</SPAN></FONT><o:p></o:p></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Courier =
New"=20
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier =
New'"><BR><BR><CODE><FONT=20
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any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso=20
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style=3D"mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: =
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12.0pt">sender.</SPAN></FONT></CODE><BR><CODE><FONT=20
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