RE: [CANSLIM] M longer term (correction)

From: "Hill, Ernie" <Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M longer term (correction)
Date: Thu, 23 May 2002 12:45:18 -0500
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Corrections are in red.
HI group,
I am trying to send a chart of the weekly S&P I hope it works out. Normally
my technical focus is on a much shorter time frame, but when I saw that we
might be about to complete the correction of the move from 9-21 to 1-9, I
thought I would take a little longer term perspective.
In this chart I have drawn a trend line from the bottom of the first move
down from the March 2000 high connecting lows made in March of 2001 and
September of 2001. I have also drawn a trend line from the top of the first
upward reaction to the initial down move from the March 2000 high and
connected it to the high made in May of 2001.
As you can see these trend lines clearly define the trading channel of the
bear market. Looking at this chart the first indication we have that the
bear market is over, is the penetration of the top trend line and the fact
that the market has traded outside the bear market channel for most of this
year.
My current time frame for the next low turning point is within four days of
6-4. This time frame will be reached on this chart in the next one to two
bars. Notice where my target price range (1034-1027) for the next low
turning point falls on this chart. If during the time frame of the next one
to two bars my projected price range is met it will fall just above the
upper trend line. 
From an Elliott wave standpoint the move from 9-21 to 1-9 could be
interpreted as a wave one impulse wave, followed by a simple A-B-C zig zag
correction as labeled on the chart. With the "C" wave terminating at my
projected low turning point, completing impulse wave two, and setting the
stage for impulse wave three to begin. Three waves are usually dynamic in
nature and longer in duration than one and five waves.
In conclusion what I see in the chart patterns and in my analysis is the
early dynamic stages of a new "BULL" market. If my projected low turning
point is made in the target price range that I have forecast it will
complete a very neat technical package, which I believe will usher in happy
times for CANSLIMer's as well as anyone else who is long in the market.
E
PS: If you missed what I posted yesterday about M this post will be harder
for you to follow as it is a follow up to yesterday's analysis.


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<p style=3D'margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dred face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:red'>Corrections are in r=
ed.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p style=3D'margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><s=
pan
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'>HI group,</span></=
font><o:p></o:p></p>

<p style=3D'margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><s=
pan
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'>I am trying to sen=
d a
chart of the weekly S&amp;P I hope it works out. Normally my technical focu=
s is
on a much shorter time frame, but when I saw that we might be about to comp=
lete
the correction of the move from 9-21 to 1-9, I thought I would take a little
longer term perspective.</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>

<p style=3D'margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><s=
pan
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'>In this chart I ha=
ve
drawn a trend line from the bottom of the first move down from the March 20=
00
high connecting lows made in March of 2001 and September of 2001. I have al=
so
drawn a trend line from the top of the first upward reaction to the initial
down move from the March 2000 high and connected it to the high made in May=
 of
2001.</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>

<p style=3D'margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><s=
pan
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'>As you can see the=
se
trend lines clearly define the trading channel of the bear market. Looking =
at
this chart the first indication we have that the bear market is over, is the
penetration of the top trend line and the fact that the market has traded
outside the bear market channel for most of this year.</span></font><o:p></=
o:p></p>

<p style=3D'margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><s=
pan
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'>My current time fr=
ame
for the next low turning point is within four days of 6-4.</span></font> <f=
ont
size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-fa=
mily:Arial;
color:black'>This time frame will be reached on this chart in the next </sp=
an></font><font
size=3D2 color=3Dred face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-fami=
ly:Arial;
color:red'>one</span></font><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'> to </span></font>=
<font
size=3D2 color=3Dred face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-fami=
ly:Arial;
color:red'>two</span></font><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'> bars. Notice wher=
e my
target price range (1034-1027) for the next low turning point falls on this
chart. If during the time frame of the next </span></font><font size=3D2
color=3Dred face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:red'>one</span></font><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'> to </span></font>=
<font
size=3D2 color=3Dred face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-fami=
ly:Arial;
color:red'>two</span></font><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'> bars my projected=
 price
range is met it will fall just above the upper trend line. </span></font><o=
:p></o:p></p>

<p style=3D'margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><s=
pan
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'>From an Elliott wa=
ve
standpoint the move from 9-21 to 1-9 could be interpreted as a wave one imp=
ulse
wave, followed by a simple A-B-C zig zag correction as</span></font> <font
size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-fa=
mily:Arial;
color:black'>labeled on the chart.</span></font> <font size=3D2 color=3Dbla=
ck
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'=
>With
the</span></font> <font size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'>&quot;C&quot; wave terminating at my
projected</span></font> <font size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'>low</span></font> =
<font
size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-fa=
mily:Arial;
color:black'>turning point, completing impulse wave two, and setting the st=
age
for impulse wave three to begin.</span></font> <font size=3D2 color=3Dblack
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'=
>Three
waves are usually dynamic in nature and longer in duration than one and five
waves.</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>

<p style=3D'margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><s=
pan
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'>In conclusion what=
 I see
in the chart patterns and in my analysis</span></font> <font size=3D2
color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Aria=
l;
color:black'>is the early dynamic stages of a new</span></font> <font size=
=3D2
color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Aria=
l;
color:black'>&quot;BULL&quot; market. If my projected low turning point is =
made
in the target price range that I have forecast it will complete a very neat
technical package, which I</span></font> <font size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=
=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'>believe will usher=
 in
happy times for CANSLIMer's as well as anyone else who is long in the marke=
t.</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>

<p style=3D'margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><s=
pan
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'>E</span></font><o:=
p></o:p></p>

<p style=3D'margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><s=
pan
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'>PS: If you missed<=
/span></font>
<font size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;f=
ont-family:
Arial;color:black'>what I posted yesterday about M</span></font> <font size=
=3D2
color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Aria=
l;
color:black'>this post will be harder for you to follow as it is a follow u=
p to
yesterday's analysis.</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>

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