Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: Growth Estimates (was: [CANSLIM] Updated CANSLIM hunting list)
Date: Tue, 28 May 2002 10:22:27 -0500
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Hi John,
I absolutely believe that projected growth estimates are useful. It's =
the only means of narrowing down the universe of technically strong =
stocks in order to draw your eye to potential CANSLIM candidates. That =
doesn't mean they are "right" it just means they are "the best info =
available." The alternative is to read absolutely everything (SEC =
filings, etc.) about every possible stock and make your own assessment =
of future growth potential--impossible. The idea is simply to use a =
minimum figure as a hurdle, then let additional past fundamentals and =
current technical pattern help in the final selection.=20
If you were to throw out future growth estimates assuming that they are =
not "accurate", then throw out past fundamentals assuming that they =
"don't tell the whole story" then you're left with nothing but =
technicals. That means you're a pure technician, forced to play a =
short-term game with entry/exit *only* on technical patterns. Decidedly =
*not* CANSLIM, as it is the inclusion of both fundamentals and =
intermediate term technicals which puts you firmly in CANSLIM territory.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: xjadair=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Tuesday, May 28, 2002 9:26 AM
Subject: Re: Growth Estimates (was: [CANSLIM] Updated CANSLIM hunting =
list)
Do you really believe any of the projected growth estimates are worth =
anything. I would be more surprised if any matched and are there any =
studies to indicate past performance of the projected growth rates.
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Katherine Malm=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Monday, May 27, 2002 9:07 PM
Subject: Re: Growth Estimates (was: [CANSLIM] Updated CANSLIM =
hunting list)
Hi SRP,
I don't use the QP2 data, so folks using it may have a more =
definitive answer as to what they have found useful.
But...your question got me to wondering how the QP2 projections =
matched what I use in VectorVest. In VV, there is a forward growth =
parameter (GRT) which indicates the annual projected growth for "the =
next 1 to 3 years." I always use GRT>=3D15 in my own stock selection =
criteria.
I asked a friend who uses QP2 to forward the data for approx 3000 =
stocks with prices >=3D $6. I then ran a test to see how things compared =
between my numbers and the QP2 projected numbers. I deleted a lot of the =
stocks on the list because QP2 had 0% or 9999% for many of them. I then =
did a simple "toggle" test for GRT>=3D15, yes or no. Then did the same =
for each of the QP2 projected numbers (>=3D15%, yes or no). I then =
counted up the Yes/No matches between QP2 and VV. Here are the results:
Using %EPS Proj CFY: 59% matched
Using %EPS Proj 3-5 yrs: 62% matched
Using %EPS Proj NFY: 57% matched
Using a test where any one of the above 3 projected was >=3D15%: 47% =
matched.
I don't know what to tell you beyond that, but the using any of the =
QP2 projected numbers, the differences are marked, so couldn't draw any =
conclusions based on the tests I ran.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: SRP Singh=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Friday, May 24, 2002 3:33 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Updated CANSLIM hunting list
Hi Katherine and ALL,
Thanks for your reply. it really helps.
I've the following items in my filter to arrive at
forward growth rates cutoff.
If %EPS Proj CFY >=3D 15.0
Or %EPS Proj CFY =3D 0.0
Or %EPS Proj NFY >=3D 20.0
It means projected/estimated EPS growth for Current
Financial Year (CFY) should be greater than or equal
to 15%=20
or=20
the same equal to zero as some stocks may not have any
estimate
or Projectd EPS growth for Next Financial Year (NFY)
should be greater than or equal to 20 %
Is this a valid way to filter out lower growth stocks
? or Should one use Current QUARTER (instead of Year)
and Next QUARTER estimates? One can also take last 6
months actual EPS growth and extrapolate to arrive at
next 6 month expected growth.=20
Which is the more valid way to arrive at growth figure
?
Thanks,
SRP
--- Katherine Malm <kmalm@earthlink.net> wrote:
> Hi SRP,
>=20
> 1. To find out if the RS Line is increasing, I
> simply run a calculation based on the price today
> vs. 26 weeks ago. The RS Line compares the price of
> the stock to the S&P500 on that date and then plots
> it. To be accurate, I should have said that I've
> included stocks where the RS Line is not decreasing.
> That is, I included anything where the RS Line was
> the same or higher over 26 weeks. The calculation is
> as follows: (Pn =3D Price now, P26 =3D Price 26 wks ago,
> SPXn =3D SPX now, SPX26 =3D SPX 26 wks ago):
>=20
> % Inc in RS Line 26 wks =3D (Pn/SPXn - P26/SPX26) /
> (P26/SPX26)
>=20
> The line you see on the DGO or IBD charts is a plot
> of this relationship between Price & SPX over time
> and is *not* a plot of the RS Ranking (1-99) over
> time. That is, it tells you how the price of the
> stock is doing relative to the S&P500. The RS
> Ranking tells you how the stock is performing vs.
> all other stocks based on price appreciation over
> the last 12 months (based on 40% current quarter and
> 20% for each of the previous quarters).
>=20
> 2. D/E is Debt to Equity. Or, what some people
> simply call the Debt Ratio. I like it to be <=3D50%,
> but don't use it as a filter, just a weigh-in
> factor. Reasons are numerous, including errors in
> the data sources, the norm for the industry, etc.
>=20
> Katherine
> ----- Original Message -----=20
> From: SRP Singh=20
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
> Sent: Friday, May 24, 2002 12:20 PM
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Updated CANSLIM hunting
> list
>=20
>=20
> Hi Katherine,
>=20
> Thanks for sharing spreadsheet. I've 2 questions
> though.
>=20
> 1. How or where do you get value for "an
> increasing RS
> Line for the last 26 wks" ? I can see the RS Line
> at
> charts in investors.com but how do you use it in
> the
> filter ?
>=20
>=20
> 2. In one of your earlier mails you've mentioned
> that
> you prefer the following values :
> ROE (prefer >=3D17%)
> D/E (prefer <=3D50%)
>=20
> Is this D/E is typo ? Should it be P/E ? Please
> excuse
> my ignorance.
>=20
> Thanks,
> SRP
>=20
>=20
> --- Katherine Malm <kmalm@earthlink.net> wrote:
> > Hi All,
> >=20
> > I've uploaded a more current spreadsheet with
> links
> > containing "CANSLIM hunting ground" stocks.
> >=20
> > All stocks have forward growth rates >=3D15, have
> an
> > increasing RS Line for the last 26 wks, current
> > RS>=3D60, Price>=3D200dMA, Price>=3D(-15%) of 50dMA,
> A/D
> > not D or E. Some stocks will slip through that
> don't
> > meet all the technical requirements because,
> when
> > data is missing, I let them pass.
> >=20
> > Most stocks included have Price>=3D6, though some
> > small fry slip through. Most AvgVols are >=3D30K,
> > though again, some lower ADV's are included.
> >=20
> > Stocks to be merged/acquired are not included.
> >=20
> > Data current as of 5/22/02
> >=20
> > You'll find the spreadsheet at: =20
> >
> =20
>
http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/CANSLIMHunting052202.zip
> >=20
> > Happy Hunting,
> > Katherine
> >=20
> > PS Industries are NOT from DGO, so you will see
> some
> > differences between the industries identified
> here
> > and those as they are identified in DGO.
> >=20
>=20
>=20
> __________________________________________________
> Do You Yahoo!?
> LAUNCH - Your Yahoo! Music Experience
> http://launch.yahoo.com
>=20
> -
> -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email
> "majordomo@xmission.com"
> -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
> -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your
> email.
>=20
>=20
__________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
LAUNCH - Your Yahoo! Music Experience
http://launch.yahoo.com
-
-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV>Hi John,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I absolutely believe that projected growth estimates are useful. =
It's the=20
only means of narrowing down the universe of technically strong stocks =
in order=20
to draw your eye to potential CANSLIM candidates. That doesn't mean they =
are=20
"right" it just means they are "the best info available." The =
alternative is to=20
read absolutely everything (SEC filings, etc.) about every possible =
stock=20
and make your own assessment of future growth potential--impossible. The =
idea is=20
simply to use a minimum figure as a hurdle, then let additional past=20
fundamentals and current technical pattern help in the final selection. =
</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>If you were to throw out future growth estimates assuming that they =
are not=20
"accurate", then throw out past fundamentals assuming that they "don't =
tell the=20
whole story" then you're left with nothing but technicals. That means =
you're a=20
pure technician, forced to play a short-term game with entry/exit *only* =
on=20
technical patterns. Decidedly *not* CANSLIM, as it is the inclusion of =
both=20
fundamentals and intermediate term technicals which puts you firmly=20
in CANSLIM territory.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dxjadair@brightok.net =
href=3D"mailto:xjadair@brightok.net">xjadair</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, May 28, 2002 =
9:26 AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: Growth Estimates =
(was:=20
[CANSLIM] Updated CANSLIM hunting list)</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Do you really believe any of the =
projected growth=20
estimates are worth anything. I would be more surprised if any matched =
and are there any studies to indicate past performance of the =
projected=20
growth rates.</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net =
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine=20
Malm</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, May 27, 2002 =
9:07=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: Growth Estimates =
(was:=20
[CANSLIM] Updated CANSLIM hunting list)</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Hi SRP,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I don't use the QP2 data, so folks using it may have a more =
definitive=20
answer as to what they have found useful.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>But...your question got me to wondering how the QP2 projections =
matched=20
what I use in VectorVest. In VV, there is a forward growth parameter =
(GRT)=20
which indicates the annual projected growth for "the next 1 to 3 =
years." I=20
always use GRT>=3D15 in my own stock selection criteria.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I asked a friend who uses QP2 to forward the data for approx =
3000=20
stocks with prices >=3D $6. I then ran a test to see how things =
compared=20
between my numbers and the QP2 projected numbers. I deleted a lot of =
the=20
stocks on the list because QP2 had 0% or 9999% for many of them. I =
then did=20
a simple "toggle" test for GRT>=3D15, yes or no. Then did the =
same for each=20
of the QP2 projected numbers (>=3D15%, yes or no). I then counted =
up the=20
Yes/No matches between QP2 and VV. Here are the results:</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Using %EPS Proj CFY: 59% matched</DIV>
<DIV>Using %EPS Proj 3-5 yrs: 62% matched</DIV>
<DIV>Using %EPS Proj NFY: 57% matched</DIV>
<DIV>Using a test where any one of the above 3 projected =
was=20
>=3D15%: 47% matched.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I don't know what to tell you beyond that, but the using any of =
the QP2=20
projected numbers, the differences are marked, so couldn't draw any=20
conclusions based on the tests I ran.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dssingh_01803@yahoo.com =
href=3D"mailto:ssingh_01803@yahoo.com">SRP=20
Singh</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, May 24, 2002 =
3:33=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
Updated=20
CANSLIM hunting list</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>Hi Katherine and=20
ALL,<BR> Thanks =
for your=20
reply. it really helps.<BR><BR>I've the following items in my =
filter to=20
arrive at<BR>forward growth rates cutoff.<BR><BR>If %EPS Proj CFY =
>=3D=20
15.0<BR>Or %EPS Proj CFY =3D 0.0<BR>Or %EPS Proj NFY >=3D =
20.0<BR><BR>It=20
means projected/estimated EPS growth for Current<BR>Financial Year =
(CFY)=20
should be greater than or equal<BR>to 15% <BR>or <BR>the same =
equal to=20
zero as some stocks may not have any<BR>estimate<BR>or Projectd =
EPS growth=20
for Next Financial Year (NFY)<BR>should be greater than or equal =
to 20=20
%<BR><BR>Is this a valid way to filter out lower growth =
stocks<BR>? or=20
Should one use Current QUARTER (instead of Year)<BR>and Next =
QUARTER=20
estimates? One can also take last 6<BR>months actual EPS growth =
and=20
extrapolate to arrive at<BR>next 6 month expected growth. =
<BR><BR>Which is=20
the more valid way to arrive at growth=20
figure<BR>?<BR><BR>Thanks,<BR>SRP<BR><BR><BR><BR>--- Katherine =
Malm <<A=20
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">kmalm@earthlink.net</A>>=20
wrote:<BR>> Hi SRP,<BR>> <BR>> 1. To find out if the RS =
Line is=20
increasing, I<BR>> simply run a calculation based on the price=20
today<BR>> vs. 26 weeks ago. The RS Line compares the price =
of<BR>>=20
the stock to the S&P500 on that date and then plots<BR>> =
it. To be=20
accurate, I should have said that I've<BR>> included stocks =
where the=20
RS Line is not decreasing.<BR>> That is, I included anything =
where the=20
RS Line was<BR>> the same or higher over 26 weeks. The =
calculation=20
is<BR>> as follows: (Pn =3D Price now, P26 =3D Price 26 wks =
ago,<BR>>=20
SPXn =3D SPX now, SPX26 =3D SPX 26 wks ago):<BR>> <BR>> % =
Inc in RS Line=20
26 wks =3D (Pn/SPXn - P26/SPX26) /<BR>> (P26/SPX26)<BR>> =
<BR>> The=20
line you see on the DGO or IBD charts is a plot<BR>> of this=20
relationship between Price & SPX over time<BR>> and is =
*not* a plot=20
of the RS Ranking (1-99) over<BR>> time. That is, it tells you =
how the=20
price of the<BR>> stock is doing relative to the S&P500. =
The=20
RS<BR>> Ranking tells you how the stock is performing =
vs.<BR>> all=20
other stocks based on price appreciation over<BR>> the last 12 =
months=20
(based on 40% current quarter and<BR>> 20% for each of the =
previous=20
quarters).<BR>> <BR>> 2. D/E is Debt to Equity. Or, what =
some=20
people<BR>> simply call the Debt Ratio. I like it to be=20
<=3D50%,<BR>> but don't use it as a filter, just a =
weigh-in<BR>>=20
factor. Reasons are numerous, including errors in<BR>> the data =
sources, the norm for the industry, etc.<BR>> <BR>>=20
Katherine<BR>> ----- Original Message -----=20
<BR>> From: SRP Singh <BR>> To: <A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
<BR>> Sent: Friday, May 24, 2002 12:20=20
PM<BR>> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Updated CANSLIM=20
hunting<BR>> list<BR>> <BR>> <BR>> Hi=20
Katherine,<BR>> <BR>> Thanks for =
sharing=20
spreadsheet. I've 2 questions<BR>> though.<BR>>=20
<BR>> 1. How or where do you get value for =
"an<BR>>=20
increasing RS<BR>> Line for the last 26 wks" ? I =
can see=20
the RS Line<BR>> at<BR>> charts in investors.com =
but how=20
do you use it in<BR>> the<BR>> filter ?<BR>> =
<BR>>=20
<BR>> 2. In one of your earlier mails you've=20
mentioned<BR>> that<BR>> you prefer the =
following values=20
:<BR>> ROE (prefer >=3D17%)<BR>> =
D/E=20
(prefer <=3D50%)<BR>> <BR>> Is this D/E is =
typo ?=20
Should it be P/E ? Please<BR>> excuse<BR>> my=20
ignorance.<BR>> <BR>> =
Thanks,<BR>> =20
SRP<BR>> <BR>> <BR>> --- Katherine Malm =
<<A=20
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">kmalm@earthlink.net</A>>=20
wrote:<BR>> > Hi All,<BR>> >=20
<BR>> > I've uploaded a more current spreadsheet =
with<BR>> links<BR>> > containing "CANSLIM =
hunting=20
ground" stocks.<BR>> > <BR>> > =
All=20
stocks have forward growth rates >=3D15, have<BR>>=20
an<BR>> > increasing RS Line for the last 26 =
wks,=20
current<BR>> > RS>=3D60, Price>=3D200dMA,=20
Price>=3D(-15%) of 50dMA,<BR>> A/D<BR>> > =
not D or=20
E. Some stocks will slip through that<BR>> =
don't<BR>> =20
> meet all the technical requirements because,<BR>>=20
when<BR>> > data is missing, I let them=20
pass.<BR>> > <BR>> > Most =
stocks=20
included have Price>=3D6, though some<BR>> > =
small fry=20
slip through. Most AvgVols are >=3D30K,<BR>> =
> though=20
again, some lower ADV's are included.<BR>> >=20
<BR>> > Stocks to be merged/acquired are not=20
included.<BR>> > <BR>> > Data =
current=20
as of 5/22/02<BR>> > <BR>> > =
You'll=20
find the spreadsheet at: <BR>> =
><BR>> =20
<BR>><BR><A=20
=
href=3D"http://WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/CANSLIMHunting052202.zip">http:=
//WallStreet-LLC.com/canslim/CANSLIMHunting052202.zip</A><BR>> &n=
bsp;=20
> <BR>> > Happy Hunting,<BR>> =
>=20
Katherine<BR>> > <BR>> > PS =
Industries=20
are NOT from DGO, so you will see<BR>> some<BR>> =
>=20
differences between the industries identified<BR>>=20
here<BR>> > and those as they are identified in=20
DGO.<BR>> > <BR>> <BR>> =
<BR>> =20
=
__________________________________________________<BR>> =
Do=20
You Yahoo!?<BR>> LAUNCH - Your Yahoo! Music=20
Experience<BR>> <A=20
=
href=3D"http://launch.yahoo.com">http://launch.yahoo.com</A><BR>>=20
<BR>> -<BR>> -To =
subscribe/unsubscribe,=20
email<BR>> "<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>>=
; =20
-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" =
or<BR>> =20
-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your<BR>>=20
email.<BR>> <BR>>=20
=
<BR><BR><BR>__________________________________________________<BR>Do You =
Yahoo!?<BR>LAUNCH - Your Yahoo! Music Experience<BR><A=20
=
href=3D"http://launch.yahoo.com">http://launch.yahoo.com</A><BR><BR>-<BR>=
- -To=20
subscribe/unsubscribe, email "<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>-In=
=20
the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe=20
canslim". Do not use quotes in your=20
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