Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: SRP Singh <ssingh_01803@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: Growth Estimates (was: [CANSLIM] Updated CANSLIM hunting list)
Date: Wed, 29 May 2002 07:35:13 -0700 (PDT)
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Hi Katherine, Thanks for your testing with QP2 estimates. I agree with you that the projected growth estimates are useful. But I would feel comfortable working with short to medium term estimates rather than long term (3-5 years) growth estimates. Thanks SRP - --- Katherine Malm <kmalm@earthlink.net> wrote: > Hi John, > > I absolutely believe that projected growth estimates > are useful. It's the only means of narrowing down > the universe of technically strong stocks in order > to draw your eye to potential CANSLIM candidates. > That doesn't mean they are "right" it just means > they are "the best info available." The alternative > is to read absolutely everything (SEC filings, etc.) > about every possible stock and make your own > assessment of future growth potential--impossible. > The idea is simply to use a minimum figure as a > hurdle, then let additional past fundamentals and > current technical pattern help in the final > selection. > > If you were to throw out future growth estimates > assuming that they are not "accurate", then throw > out past fundamentals assuming that they "don't tell > the whole story" then you're left with nothing but > technicals. That means you're a pure technician, > forced to play a short-term game with entry/exit > *only* on technical patterns. Decidedly *not* > CANSLIM, as it is the inclusion of both fundamentals > and intermediate term technicals which puts you > firmly in CANSLIM territory. > > Katherine > ----- Original Message ----- > From: xjadair > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Sent: Tuesday, May 28, 2002 9:26 AM > Subject: Re: Growth Estimates (was: [CANSLIM] > Updated CANSLIM hunting list) > > > Do you really believe any of the projected growth > estimates are worth anything. I would be more > surprised if any matched and are there any studies > to indicate past performance of the projected growth > rates. > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Katherine Malm > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Sent: Monday, May 27, 2002 9:07 PM > Subject: Re: Growth Estimates (was: [CANSLIM] > Updated CANSLIM hunting list) > > > Hi SRP, > > I don't use the QP2 data, so folks using it may > have a more definitive answer as to what they have > found useful. > > But...your question got me to wondering how the > QP2 projections matched what I use in VectorVest. In > VV, there is a forward growth parameter (GRT) which > indicates the annual projected growth for "the next > 1 to 3 years." I always use GRT>=15 in my own stock > selection criteria. > > I asked a friend who uses QP2 to forward the > data for approx 3000 stocks with prices >= $6. I > then ran a test to see how things compared between > my numbers and the QP2 projected numbers. I deleted > a lot of the stocks on the list because QP2 had 0% > or 9999% for many of them. I then did a simple > "toggle" test for GRT>=15, yes or no. Then did the > same for each of the QP2 projected numbers (>=15%, > yes or no). I then counted up the Yes/No matches > between QP2 and VV. Here are the results: > > Using %EPS Proj CFY: 59% matched > Using %EPS Proj 3-5 yrs: 62% matched > Using %EPS Proj NFY: 57% matched > Using a test where any one of the above 3 > projected was >=15%: 47% matched. > > I don't know what to tell you beyond that, but > the using any of the QP2 projected numbers, the > differences are marked, so couldn't draw any > conclusions based on the tests I ran. > > Katherine > ----- Original Message ----- > From: SRP Singh > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Sent: Friday, May 24, 2002 3:33 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Updated CANSLIM hunting > list > > > Hi Katherine and ALL, > Thanks for your reply. it really > helps. > > I've the following items in my filter to > arrive at > forward growth rates cutoff. > > If %EPS Proj CFY >= 15.0 > Or %EPS Proj CFY = 0.0 > Or %EPS Proj NFY >= 20.0 > > It means projected/estimated EPS growth for > Current > Financial Year (CFY) should be greater than or > equal > to 15% > or > the same equal to zero as some stocks may not > have any > estimate > or Projectd EPS growth for Next Financial Year > (NFY) > should be greater than or equal to 20 % > > Is this a valid way to filter out lower growth > stocks > ? or Should one use Current QUARTER (instead > of Year) > and Next QUARTER estimates? One can also take > last 6 > months actual EPS growth and extrapolate to > arrive at > next 6 month expected growth. > > Which is the more valid way to arrive at > growth figure > ? > > Thanks, > SRP > > > > --- Katherine Malm <kmalm@earthlink.net> > wrote: > > Hi SRP, > > > > 1. To find out if the RS Line is increasing, > I > > simply run a calculation based on the price > today > > vs. 26 weeks ago. The RS Line compares the > price of > > the stock to the S&P500 on that date and > then plots > > it. To be accurate, I should have said that > I've > > included stocks where the RS Line is not > decreasing. > > That is, I included anything where the RS > Line was > > the same or higher over 26 weeks. The > calculation is > > as follows: (Pn = Price now, P26 = Price 26 > wks ago, > > SPXn = SPX now, SPX26 = SPX 26 wks ago): > > > > % Inc in RS Line 26 wks = (Pn/SPXn - > P26/SPX26) / > > (P26/SPX26) > > > > The line you see on the DGO or IBD charts is > a plot > > of this relationship between Price & SPX > over time > > and is *not* a plot of the RS Ranking (1-99) > over > > time. That is, it tells you how the price of > the > > stock is doing relative to the S&P500. The > RS > > Ranking tells you how the stock is > performing vs. > > all other stocks based on price appreciation > over > > the last 12 months (based on 40% current > quarter and > > 20% for each of the previous quarters). > > > > 2. D/E is Debt to Equity. Or, what some > people > > simply call the Debt Ratio. I like it to be > <=50%, > > but don't use it as a filter, just a > weigh-in > > factor. Reasons are numerous, including > errors in > > the data sources, the norm for the industry, > etc. > > > > Katherine > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: SRP Singh > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > Sent: Friday, May 24, 2002 12:20 PM > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Updated CANSLIM > hunting > === message truncated === __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Yahoo! - Official partner of 2002 FIFA World Cup http://fifaworldcup.yahoo.com - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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