Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Hill, Ernie" <Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com>
Subject: [CANSLIM] M update
Date: Thu, 30 May 2002 20:22:06 -0500
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I have included my last forecast at the end of this post for reference
purposes.
The S&P entered my low turn time window yesterday and hit a lower
probability target price of 1054 today also the NAZ, SPX, & the RUT all had
price reversals today or if you prefer "pollywogs" (I am not a candle stick
reader so I am not sure if the volume was there to actually produce
"pollywogs" or not, but today was a reversal day for all of these indexes in
my terminology none the less).
Despite hitting a price target and creating a reversal bar on the same day I
still believe that we have not quite yet reached the bottom of this move. My
higher probability price target range still makes for a more complete
technical package. Although, I think given the current price structure the
lower part of my target range is not likely to be reached in fact 1035 -
1038 is more likely to be the bottom.
If in fact today was the bottom of the current down swing there is a strong
possibility that M will advance for a couple of days and then challenge
today's low later in the low turn time window which closes on 6-10.
Duke it could be getting very close to time to indulge your "burn".
E
- -----Original Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie
Sent: Tuesday, May 21, 2002 8:37 PM
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M
It appears that the high turn has been made. On 5-17 we closed at 1106.59
and then again touched that level on an intra-day basis yesterday. The turn
has apparently come early in the window just 4.41 points shy of the
projected price level. There is a reasonable possibility that the market
will move back up near the turn high over the next couple of days before
resuming the move down. There is a small chance that the market may even
slightly exceed the high and actually make the turn later in the window. If
this happens don't be fooled it is only a head fake.
The next low turn has two possible time windows for the turn. The first and
most likely window is within four days of 6-4. The target price range is
1027 to 1034. 1.382 times the move from 5-7 to 5-17 yields 79.51 points
subtract this number from the high of 1106.59 and we arrive at the low
target of 1027.08. A 61.8% retracement of the move from 9-21 to 1-9 yields a
target price of 1033.46. If this projected down move does terminate in the
projected target range, it has the potential to be the end point of the
correction for the entire move from 9-21 to 1-9. And could set the stage for
a significant and sustainable move up.
E
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<div class=3DSection1>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 color=3D"#99=
3366"
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font=
- -family:
Arial'>I have included my last forecast at the end of this post for referen=
ce
purposes.<o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 color=3D"#99=
3366"
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font=
- -family:
Arial'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font><=
/span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 color=3D"#99=
3366"
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font=
- -family:
Arial'>The S&P entered my low turn time window yesterday and hit a lower
probability target price of 1054 today also the NAZ, SPX, & the RUT all=
had
price reversals today or if you prefer “pollywogs” (I am not a =
candle stick
reader so I am not sure if the volume was there to actually produce “=
pollywogs”
or not, but today was a reversal day for all of these indexes in my termino=
logy
none the less).<o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 color=3D"#99=
3366"
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font=
- -family:
Arial'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font><=
/span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 color=3D"#99=
3366"
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font=
- -family:
Arial'>Despite hitting a price target and creating a reversal bar on the sa=
me
day I still believe that we have not quite yet reached the bottom of this m=
ove.
My higher probability price target range still makes for a more complete
technical package. Although, I think given the current price structure the
lower part of my target range is not likely to be reached in fact 1035 R=
11; 1038
is more likely to be the bottom.<o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 color=3D"#99=
3366"
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font=
- -family:
Arial'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font><=
/span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 color=3D"#99=
3366"
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font=
- -family:
Arial'>If in fact today was the bottom of the current down swing there is a
strong possibility that M will advance for a couple of days and then challe=
nge
today’s low later in the low turn time window which closes on 6-10.<o=
:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 color=3D"#99=
3366"
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font=
- -family:
Arial'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font><=
/span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 color=3D"#99=
3366"
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font=
- -family:
Arial'>Duke it could be getting very close to time to indulge your “b=
urn”.<o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 color=3D"#99=
3366"
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font=
- -family:
Arial'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font><=
/span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 color=3D"#99=
3366"
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font=
- -family:
Arial'>E<o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 color=3D"#99=
3366"
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font=
- -family:
Arial'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font><=
/span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack
face=3DTahoma><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:blac=
k'>-----Original
Message-----<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>From:</span></b> Hill, Ernie <br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> Tuesday, May 21, 2002 =
8:37
PM<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b> 'canslim@lists.xmission.=
com'<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> RE: [CANSLIM] M</sp=
an></font><font
color=3D"#993366"><span style=3D'color:#993366;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o=
:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3D"#99=
3366"
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:#993366'><![=
if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]></span></font><font
color=3D"#993366"><span style=3D'color:#993366;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o=
:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><span class=3DEmailStyle20>=
<font
size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi=
- -font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>It appears that the high turn has been made. On 5=
- -17
we closed at 1106.59 and then again touched that level on an intra-day basis
yesterday. The turn has apparently come early in the window just 4.41 points
shy of the projected price level. There is a reasonable possibility that the
market will move back up near the turn high over the next couple of days be=
fore
resuming the move down. There is a small chance that the market may even
slightly exceed the high and actually make the turn later in the window. If
this happens don’t be fooled it is only a head fake.<o:p></o:p></span=
></font></span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><span class=3DEmailStyle20>=
<font
size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi=
- -font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></=
o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><span class=3DEmailStyle20>=
<font
size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi=
- -font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>The next low turn has two possible time windows f=
or
the turn. The first and most likely window is within four days of 6-4. The
target price range is 1027 to 1034. 1.382 times the move from 5-7 to 5-17 y=
ields
79.51 points subtract this number from the high of 1106.59 and we arrive at=
the
low target of 1027.08. A 61.8% retracement of the move from 9-21 to 1-9 yie=
lds
a target price of 1033.46. If this projected down move does terminate in the
projected target range, it has the potential to be the end point of the
correction for the entire move from 9-21 to 1-9. And could set the stage fo=
r a
significant and sustainable move up.<o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><span class=3DEmailStyle20>=
<font
size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi=
- -font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></=
o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><span class=3DEmailStyle20>=
<font
size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi=
- -font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>E<o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dbla=
ck
face=3DTahoma><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:blac=
k'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3D"#99=
3366"
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:#993366'><![=
if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]></span></font><font
color=3D"#993366"><span style=3D'color:#993366;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o=
:p></o:p></span></font></p>
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