Re: [CANSLIM] M update

From: "Bert Pesak" <bpesak@rcn.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M update
Date: Fri, 31 May 2002 11:58:55 -0400
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Ernie,

I would like to have a better understanding of the process you are using =
to make your projections.
Could you recommend some reading material on the process you are using.

Thanks
Bert Pesak
bpesak@rcn.com

  ----- Original Message -----=20
  From: Hill, Ernie=20
  To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=20
  Sent: Thursday, May 30, 2002 9:22 PM
  Subject: [CANSLIM] M update


  I have included my last forecast at the end of this post for reference =
purposes.

  =20

  The S&P entered my low turn time window yesterday and hit a lower =
probability target price of 1054 today also the NAZ, SPX, & the RUT all =
had price reversals today or if you prefer =93pollywogs=94 (I am not a =
candle stick reader so I am not sure if the volume was there to actually =
produce =93pollywogs=94 or not, but today was a reversal day for all of =
these indexes in my terminology none the less).

  =20

  Despite hitting a price target and creating a reversal bar on the same =
day I still believe that we have not quite yet reached the bottom of =
this move. My higher probability price target range still makes for a =
more complete technical package. Although, I think given the current =
price structure the lower part of my target range is not likely to be =
reached in fact 1035 =96 1038 is more likely to be the bottom.

  =20

  If in fact today was the bottom of the current down swing there is a =
strong possibility that M will advance for a couple of days and then =
challenge today=92s low later in the low turn time window which closes =
on 6-10.

  =20

  Duke it could be getting very close to time to indulge your =
=93burn=94.

  =20

  E

  =20

  -----Original Message-----
  From: Hill, Ernie=20
  Sent: Tuesday, May 21, 2002 8:37 PM
  To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'
  Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M

  =20

  It appears that the high turn has been made. On 5-17 we closed at =
1106.59 and then again touched that level on an intra-day basis =
yesterday. The turn has apparently come early in the window just 4.41 =
points shy of the projected price level. There is a reasonable =
possibility that the market will move back up near the turn high over =
the next couple of days before resuming the move down. There is a small =
chance that the market may even slightly exceed the high and actually =
make the turn later in the window. If this happens don=92t be fooled it =
is only a head fake.

  =20

  The next low turn has two possible time windows for the turn. The =
first and most likely window is within four days of 6-4. The target =
price range is 1027 to 1034. 1.382 times the move from 5-7 to 5-17 =
yields 79.51 points subtract this number from the high of 1106.59 and we =
arrive at the low target of 1027.08. A 61.8% retracement of the move =
from 9-21 to 1-9 yields a target price of 1033.46. If this projected =
down move does terminate in the projected target range, it has the =
potential to be the end point of the correction for the entire move from =
9-21 to 1-9. And could set the stage for a significant and sustainable =
move up.

  =20

  E

  =20

  =20



  ******************************************************************
  This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso=20
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<BODY lang=3DEN-US style=3D"tab-interval: .5in" vLink=3Dpurple =
link=3Dblue=20
bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Ernie,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>I would like to have a better understanding of the =
process you=20
are using to make your projections.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Could you recommend some reading material on the =
process you=20
are using.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Thanks</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Bert Pesak</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2><A=20
href=3D"mailto:bpesak@rcn.com">bpesak@rcn.com</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
  <A title=3DErnie.Hill@ElPaso.com =
href=3D"mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com">Hill,=20
  Ernie</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
  =
href=3D"mailto:'canslim@lists.xmission.com'">'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=
</A>=20
  </DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, May 30, 2002 =
9:22=20
PM</DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] M =
update</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV class=3DSection1>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#993366=20
  size=3D2><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">I have=20
  included my last forecast at the end of this post for reference=20
  purposes.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#993366=20
  size=3D2><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]>&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#993366=20
  size=3D2><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">The=20
  S&amp;P entered my low turn time window yesterday and hit a lower =
probability=20
  target price of 1054 today also the NAZ, SPX, &amp; the RUT all had =
price=20
  reversals today or if you prefer =93pollywogs=94 (I am not a candle =
stick reader=20
  so I am not sure if the volume was there to actually produce =
=93pollywogs=94 or=20
  not, but today was a reversal day for all of these indexes in my =
terminology=20
  none the less).<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#993366=20
  size=3D2><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]>&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#993366=20
  size=3D2><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">Despite=20
  hitting a price target and creating a reversal bar on the same day I =
still=20
  believe that we have not quite yet reached the bottom of this move. My =
higher=20
  probability price target range still makes for a more complete =
technical=20
  package. Although, I think given the current price structure the lower =
part of=20
  my target range is not likely to be reached in fact 1035 =96 1038 is =
more likely=20
  to be the bottom.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#993366=20
  size=3D2><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]>&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#993366=20
  size=3D2><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">If in=20
  fact today was the bottom of the current down swing there is a strong=20
  possibility that M will advance for a couple of days and then =
challenge=20
  today=92s low later in the low turn time window which closes on=20
  6-10.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#993366=20
  size=3D2><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]>&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#993366=20
  size=3D2><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">Duke=20
  it could be getting very close to time to indulge your=20
  =93burn=94.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#993366=20
  size=3D2><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]>&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#993366=20
  size=3D2><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">E<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#993366=20
  size=3D2><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]>&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3Dblack=20
  size=3D2><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Tahoma">-----Original=20
  Message-----<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">From:</SPAN></B> =
Hill,=20
  Ernie <BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent:</SPAN></B> =
Tuesday, May 21,=20
  2002 8:37 PM<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">To:</SPAN></B>=20
  'canslim@lists.xmission.com'<BR><B><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject:</SPAN></B> RE: [CANSLIM]=20
  M</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=3D#993366><SPAN=20
  style=3D"COLOR: #993366; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
  color=3D#993366 size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: =
#993366"><![if !supportEmptyParas]><![endif]>&nbsp;</SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
  color=3D#993366><SPAN=20
  style=3D"COLOR: #993366; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><SPAN =
class=3DEmailStyle20><FONT=20
  face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">It=20
  appears that the high turn has been made. On 5-17 we closed at 1106.59 =
and=20
  then again touched that level on an intra-day basis yesterday. The =
turn has=20
  apparently come early in the window just 4.41 points shy of the =
projected=20
  price level. There is a reasonable possibility that the market will =
move back=20
  up near the turn high over the next couple of days before resuming the =
move=20
  down. There is a small chance that the market may even slightly exceed =
the=20
  high and actually make the turn later in the window. If this happens =
don=92t be=20
  fooled it is only a head fake.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><SPAN =
class=3DEmailStyle20><FONT=20
  face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]>&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><SPAN =
class=3DEmailStyle20><FONT=20
  face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">The=20
  next low turn has two possible time windows for the turn. The first =
and most=20
  likely window is within four days of 6-4. The target price range is =
1027 to=20
  1034. 1.382 times the move from 5-7 to 5-17 yields 79.51 points =
subtract this=20
  number from the high of 1106.59 and we arrive at the low target of =
1027.08. A=20
  61.8% retracement of the move from 9-21 to 1-9 yields a target price =
of=20
  1033.46. If this projected down move does terminate in the projected =
target=20
  range, it has the potential to be the end point of the correction for =
the=20
  entire move from 9-21 to 1-9. And could set the stage for a =
significant and=20
  sustainable move up.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><SPAN =
class=3DEmailStyle20><FONT=20
  face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]>&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><SPAN =
class=3DEmailStyle20><FONT=20
  face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
  style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">E<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 1in"><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3Dblack=20
  size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Tahoma"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]>&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
  color=3D#993366 size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: =
#993366"><![if !supportEmptyParas]><![endif]>&nbsp;</SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
  color=3D#993366><SPAN=20
  style=3D"COLOR: #993366; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV><CODE><FONT=20
  =
size=3D3><BR><BR>********************************************************=
**********<BR>This=20
  email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso =
<BR>Corporation are=20
  confidential and intended solely for the <BR>use of the individual or =
entity=20
  to whom they are addressed. <BR>If you have received this email in =
error=20
  please notify the=20
  =
<BR>sender.<BR>**********************************************************=
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