Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Hill, Ernie" <Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M update
Date: Fri, 31 May 2002 15:48:05 -0500
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Bert,
=20
Part of my methodology involves proprietary tools that I am not at liberty
to reveal. However, the tools that I can reveal are simple trend lines,
Elliott Wave Theory, and Fibinocci ratio analysis. The best book I know of
to learn about Elliott Wave Theory and Fibinocci numbers is "Elliott Wave
Theory" by Frost and Prechter.
=20
E
- -----Original Message-----
From: Bert Pesak [mailto:bpesak@rcn.com]
Sent: Friday, May 31, 2002 10:59 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M update
Ernie,
=20
I would like to have a better understanding of the process you are using to
make your projections.
Could you recommend some reading material on the process you are using.
=20
Thanks
Bert Pesak
bpesak@rcn.com <mailto:bpesak@rcn.com>=20
=20
- ----- Original Message -----=20
From: Hill, <mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com> Ernie=20
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' <mailto:'canslim@lists.xmission.com'> =20
Sent: Thursday, May 30, 2002 9:22 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] M update
I have included my last forecast at the end of this post for reference
purposes.
=20
The S&P entered my low turn time window yesterday and hit a lower
probability target price of 1054 today also the NAZ, SPX, & the RUT all had
price reversals today or if you prefer =93pollywogs=94 (I am not a candle s=
tick
reader so I am not sure if the volume was there to actually produce
=93pollywogs=94 or not, but today was a reversal day for all of these index=
es in
my terminology none the less).
=20
Despite hitting a price target and creating a reversal bar on the same day I
still believe that we have not quite yet reached the bottom of this move. My
higher probability price target range still makes for a more complete
technical package. Although, I think given the current price structure the
lower part of my target range is not likely to be reached in fact 1035 =96
1038 is more likely to be the bottom.
=20
If in fact today was the bottom of the current down swing there is a strong
possibility that M will advance for a couple of days and then challenge
today=92s low later in the low turn time window which closes on 6-10.
=20
Duke it could be getting very close to time to indulge your =93burn=94.
=20
E
=20
- -----Original Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie=20
Sent: Tuesday, May 21, 2002 8:37 PM
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M
=20
It appears that the high turn has been made. On 5-17 we closed at 1106.59
and then again touched that level on an intra-day basis yesterday. The turn
has apparently come early in the window just 4.41 points shy of the
projected price level. There is a reasonable possibility that the market
will move back up near the turn high over the next couple of days before
resuming the move down. There is a small chance that the market may even
slightly exceed the high and actually make the turn later in the window. If
this happens don=92t be fooled it is only a head fake.
=20
The next low turn has two possible time windows for the turn. The first and
most likely window is within four days of 6-4. The target price range is
1027 to 1034. 1.382 times the move from 5-7 to 5-17 yields 79.51 points
subtract this number from the high of 1106.59 and we arrive at the low
target of 1027.08. A 61.8% retracement of the move from 9-21 to 1-9 yields a
target price of 1033.46. If this projected down move does terminate in the
projected target range, it has the potential to be the end point of the
correction for the entire move from 9-21 to 1-9. And could set the stage for
a significant and sustainable move up.
=20
E
=20
=20
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This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso=20
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use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed.=20
If you have received this email in error please notify the=20
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This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso=20
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<DIV><FONT color=3D#0000ff face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D001253720-31052002>Bert,</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=3D#0000ff face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D001253720-31052002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=3D#0000ff face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN class=3D001253720-31=
052002>Part=20
of my methodology involves proprietary tools that I am not at liberty to re=
veal.=20
However, the tools that I can reveal are simple trend lines, Elliott Wave=
T
heory, and Fibinocci ratio analysis. The best book I know of to learn abou=
t=20
Elliott Wave Theory and Fibinocci numbers is "Elliott Wave Theory" by Frost=
and=20
Prechter.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=3D#0000ff face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D001253720-31052002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=3D#0000ff face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D001253720-31052002>E</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV align=3Dleft class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr><FONT face=3DTah=
oma=20
size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> Bert Pesak=20
[mailto:bpesak@rcn.com]<BR><B>Sent:</B> Friday, May 31, 2002 10:59=20
AM<BR><B>To:</B> canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSL=
IM] M=20
update<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Ernie,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>I would like to have a better understanding of the pr=
ocess=20
you are using to make your projections.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Could you recommend some reading material on the proc=
ess you=20
are using.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Thanks</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Bert Pesak</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2><A=20
href=3D"mailto:bpesak@rcn.com">bpesak@rcn.com</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: =
0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>F=
rom:</B>=20
<A href=3D"mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com" title=3DErnie.Hill@ElPaso.com>=
Hill,=20
Ernie</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
href=3D"mailto:'canslim@lists.xmission.com'"=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com>'canslim@lists.xmission.com'</A> </D=
IV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, May 30, 2002 9:2=
2=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] M update</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV class=3DSection1>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT color=3D#993366 f=
ace=3DArial=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0p=
t">I=20
have included my last forecast at the end of this post for reference=20
purposes.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT color=3D#993366 f=
ace=3DArial=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0p=
t"><![if !supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPA=
N></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT color=3D#993366 f=
ace=3DArial=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0p=
t">The=20
S&P entered my low turn time window yesterday and hit a lower=20
probability target price of 1054 today also the NAZ, SPX, & the RUT=
all=20
had price reversals today or if you prefer =93pollywogs=94 (I am not a =
candle=20
stick reader so I am not sure if the volume was there to actually produ=
ce=20
=93pollywogs=94 or not, but today was a reversal day for all of these i=
ndexes in=20
my terminology none the less).<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT color=3D#993366 f=
ace=3DArial=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0p=
t"><![if !supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPA=
N></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT color=3D#993366 f=
ace=3DArial=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0p=
t">Despite=20
hitting a price target and creating a reversal bar on the same day I st=
ill=20
believe that we have not quite yet reached the bottom of this move. My=
higher probability price target range still makes for a more complete=
technical package. Although, I think given the current price structure =
the=20
lower part of my target range is not likely to be reached in fact 1035 =
=96=20
1038 is more likely to be the bottom.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></=
P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT color=3D#993366 f=
ace=3DArial=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0p=
t"><![if !supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPA=
N></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT color=3D#993366 f=
ace=3DArial=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0p=
t">If=20
in fact today was the bottom of the current down swing there is a stron=
g=20
possibility that M will advance for a couple of days and then challenge=
today=92s low later in the low turn time window which closes on=20
6-10.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT color=3D#993366 f=
ace=3DArial=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0p=
t"><![if !supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPA=
N></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT color=3D#993366 f=
ace=3DArial=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0p=
t">Duke=20
it could be getting very close to time to indulge your=20
=93burn=94.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT color=3D#993366 f=
ace=3DArial=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0p=
t"><![if !supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPA=
N></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT color=3D#993366 f=
ace=3DArial=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0p=
t">E<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT color=3D#993366 f=
ace=3DArial=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0p=
t"><![if !supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPA=
N></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT color=3Dblack f=
ace=3DTahoma=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">-----Origi=
nal=20
Message-----<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">From:</SPAN></B> H=
ill,=20
Ernie <BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent:</SPAN></B> Tuesday=
, May=20
21, 2002 8:37 PM<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">To:</SPAN></B>=
'canslim@lists.xmission.com'<BR><B><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject:</SPAN></B> RE: [CANSLIM]=20
M</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=3D#993366><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: #993366; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN><=
/FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT color=3D#993366=
face=3D"Times New Roman" size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"COLOR: #993366; FONT-S=
IZE: 12pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3D#993366><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: #993366; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN><=
/FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><SPAN class=3DEmailSt=
yle20><FONT=20
color=3Dnavy face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0p=
t">It=20
appears that the high turn has been made. On 5-17 we closed at 1106.59 =
and=20
then again touched that level on an intra-day basis yesterday. The turn=
has=20
apparently come early in the window just 4.41 points shy of the project=
ed=20
price level. There is a reasonable possibility that the market will mov=
e=20
back up near the turn high over the next couple of days before resuming=
the=20
move down. There is a small chance that the market may even slightly ex=
ceed=20
the high and actually make the turn later in the window. If this happen=
s=20
don=92t be fooled it is only a head fake.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPA=
N></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><SPAN class=3DEmailSt=
yle20><FONT=20
color=3Dnavy face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0p=
t"><![if !supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPA=
N></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><SPAN class=3DEmailSt=
yle20><FONT=20
color=3Dnavy face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0p=
t">The=20
next low turn has two possible time windows for the turn. The first and=
most=20
likely window is within four days of 6-4. The target price range is 102=
7 to=20
1034. 1.382 times the move from 5-7 to 5-17 yields 79.51 points subtrac=
t=20
this number from the high of 1106.59 and we arrive at the low target of=
1027.08. A 61.8% retracement of the move from 9-21 to 1-9 yields a targ=
et=20
price of 1033.46. If this projected down move does terminate in the=20
projected target range, it has the potential to be the end point of the=
correction for the entire move from 9-21 to 1-9. And could set the stag=
e for=20
a significant and sustainable move up.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN><=
/P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><SPAN class=3DEmailSt=
yle20><FONT=20
color=3Dnavy face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0p=
t"><![if !supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPA=
N></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><SPAN class=3DEmailSt=
yle20><FONT=20
color=3Dnavy face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0p=
t">E<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 1in"><FONT color=3Dblack fac=
e=3DTahoma=20
size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 1=
0pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT color=3D#993366=
face=3D"Times New Roman" size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"COLOR: #993366; FONT-S=
IZE: 12pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3D#993366><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: #993366; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN><=
/FONT></P></DIV><CODE><FONT=20
size=3D3><BR><BR>******************************************************=
************<BR>This=20
email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso <BR>Corporation=
are=20
confidential and intended solely for the <BR>use of the individual or e=
ntity=20
to whom they are addressed. <BR>If you have received this email in erro=
r=20
please notify the=20
<BR>sender.<BR>********************************************************=
**********<BR></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></FONT></CODE><CODE><FONT SIZE=3D3>=
<BR>
<BR>
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Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the <BR>
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