Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Bert Pesak" <bpesak@rcn.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M update
Date: Fri, 31 May 2002 18:28:32 -0400
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Ernie,
Thanks
Bert
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Hill, Ernie=20
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=20
Sent: Friday, May 31, 2002 4:48 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M update
Bert,
Part of my methodology involves proprietary tools that I am not at =
liberty to reveal. However, the tools that I can reveal are simple trend =
lines, Elliott WaveT heory, and Fibinocci ratio analysis. The best book =
I know of to learn about Elliott Wave Theory and Fibinocci numbers is =
"Elliott Wave Theory" by Frost and Prechter.
E
-----Original Message-----
From: Bert Pesak [mailto:bpesak@rcn.com]
Sent: Friday, May 31, 2002 10:59 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M update
Ernie,
I would like to have a better understanding of the process you are =
using to make your projections.
Could you recommend some reading material on the process you are =
using.
Thanks
Bert Pesak
bpesak@rcn.com
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Hill, Ernie=20
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=20
Sent: Thursday, May 30, 2002 9:22 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] M update
I have included my last forecast at the end of this post for =
reference purposes.
=20
The S&P entered my low turn time window yesterday and hit a lower =
probability target price of 1054 today also the NAZ, SPX, & the RUT all =
had price reversals today or if you prefer =93pollywogs=94 (I am not a =
candle stick reader so I am not sure if the volume was there to actually =
produce =93pollywogs=94 or not, but today was a reversal day for all of =
these indexes in my terminology none the less).
=20
Despite hitting a price target and creating a reversal bar on the =
same day I still believe that we have not quite yet reached the bottom =
of this move. My higher probability price target range still makes for a =
more complete technical package. Although, I think given the current =
price structure the lower part of my target range is not likely to be =
reached in fact 1035 =96 1038 is more likely to be the bottom.
=20
If in fact today was the bottom of the current down swing there is =
a strong possibility that M will advance for a couple of days and then =
challenge today=92s low later in the low turn time window which closes =
on 6-10.
=20
Duke it could be getting very close to time to indulge your =
=93burn=94.
=20
E
=20
-----Original Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie=20
Sent: Tuesday, May 21, 2002 8:37 PM
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M
=20
It appears that the high turn has been made. On 5-17 we closed at =
1106.59 and then again touched that level on an intra-day basis =
yesterday. The turn has apparently come early in the window just 4.41 =
points shy of the projected price level. There is a reasonable =
possibility that the market will move back up near the turn high over =
the next couple of days before resuming the move down. There is a small =
chance that the market may even slightly exceed the high and actually =
make the turn later in the window. If this happens don=92t be fooled it =
is only a head fake.
=20
The next low turn has two possible time windows for the turn. The =
first and most likely window is within four days of 6-4. The target =
price range is 1027 to 1034. 1.382 times the move from 5-7 to 5-17 =
yields 79.51 points subtract this number from the high of 1106.59 and we =
arrive at the low target of 1027.08. A 61.8% retracement of the move =
from 9-21 to 1-9 yields a target price of 1033.46. If this projected =
down move does terminate in the projected target range, it has the =
potential to be the end point of the correction for the entire move from =
9-21 to 1-9. And could set the stage for a significant and sustainable =
move up.
=20
E
=20
=20
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If you have received this email in error please notify the=20
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<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Ernie,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Thanks</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Bert</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3DErnie.Hill@ElPaso.com =
href=3D"mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com">Hill,=20
Ernie</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:'canslim@lists.xmission.com'">'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=
</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, May 31, 2002 4:48 =
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] M =
update</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D001253720-31052002>Bert,</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D001253720-31052002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN =
class=3D001253720-31052002>Part=20
of my methodology involves proprietary tools that I am not at liberty =
to=20
reveal. However, the tools that I can reveal are simple trend lines, =
Elliott=20
WaveT heory, and Fibinocci ratio analysis. The best book I know of to =
learn=20
about Elliott Wave Theory and Fibinocci numbers is "Elliott Wave =
Theory" by=20
Frost and Prechter.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D001253720-31052002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D001253720-31052002>E</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr align=3Dleft><FONT =
face=3DTahoma=20
size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> Bert Pesak=20
[mailto:bpesak@rcn.com]<BR><B>Sent:</B> Friday, May 31, 2002 10:59=20
AM<BR><B>To:</B> canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: =
[CANSLIM]=20
M update<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Ernie,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>I would like to have a better understanding of =
the process=20
you are using to make your projections.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Could you recommend some reading material on the =
process=20
you are using.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Thanks</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Bert Pesak</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2><A=20
href=3D"mailto:bpesak@rcn.com">bpesak@rcn.com</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3DErnie.Hill@ElPaso.com =
href=3D"mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com">Hill,=20
Ernie</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:'canslim@lists.xmission.com'">'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=
</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, May 30, =
2002 9:22=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] M =
update</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV class=3DSection1>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#993366=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">I=20
have included my last forecast at the end of this post for =
reference=20
purposes.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#993366=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#993366=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">The=20
S&P entered my low turn time window yesterday and hit a lower=20
probability target price of 1054 today also the NAZ, SPX, & =
the RUT=20
all had price reversals today or if you prefer =93pollywogs=94 (I =
am not a=20
candle stick reader so I am not sure if the volume was there to =
actually=20
produce =93pollywogs=94 or not, but today was a reversal day for =
all of these=20
indexes in my terminology none the=20
less).<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#993366=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#993366=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">Despite=20
hitting a price target and creating a reversal bar on the same day =
I still=20
believe that we have not quite yet reached the bottom of this =
move. My=20
higher probability price target range still makes for a more =
complete=20
technical package. Although, I think given the current price =
structure the=20
lower part of my target range is not likely to be reached in fact =
1035 =96=20
1038 is more likely to be the =
bottom.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#993366=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#993366=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">If=20
in fact today was the bottom of the current down swing there is a =
strong=20
possibility that M will advance for a couple of days and then =
challenge=20
today=92s low later in the low turn time window which closes on=20
6-10.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#993366=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#993366=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">Duke=20
it could be getting very close to time to indulge your=20
=93burn=94.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#993366=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#993366=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">E<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#993366=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT =
face=3DTahoma=20
color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Tahoma">-----Original=20
Message-----<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: =
bold">From:</SPAN></B> Hill,=20
Ernie <BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent:</SPAN></B> =
Tuesday, May=20
21, 2002 8:37 PM<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: =
bold">To:</SPAN></B>=20
'canslim@lists.xmission.com'<BR><B><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject:</SPAN></B> RE: [CANSLIM]=20
M</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=3D#993366><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: #993366; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT =
face=3D"Times New Roman"=20
color=3D#993366 size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: =
#993366"><![if !supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3D#993366><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: #993366; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><SPAN=20
class=3DEmailStyle20><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">It=20
appears that the high turn has been made. On 5-17 we closed at =
1106.59 and=20
then again touched that level on an intra-day basis yesterday. The =
turn=20
has apparently come early in the window just 4.41 points shy of =
the=20
projected price level. There is a reasonable possibility that the =
market=20
will move back up near the turn high over the next couple of days =
before=20
resuming the move down. There is a small chance that the market =
may even=20
slightly exceed the high and actually make the turn later in the =
window.=20
If this happens don=92t be fooled it is only a head=20
fake.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><SPAN=20
class=3DEmailStyle20><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><SPAN=20
class=3DEmailStyle20><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">The=20
next low turn has two possible time windows for the turn. The =
first and=20
most likely window is within four days of 6-4. The target price =
range is=20
1027 to 1034. 1.382 times the move from 5-7 to 5-17 yields 79.51 =
points=20
subtract this number from the high of 1106.59 and we arrive at the =
low=20
target of 1027.08. A 61.8% retracement of the move from 9-21 to =
1-9 yields=20
a target price of 1033.46. If this projected down move does =
terminate in=20
the projected target range, it has the potential to be the end =
point of=20
the correction for the entire move from 9-21 to 1-9. And could set =
the=20
stage for a significant and sustainable move=20
up.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><SPAN=20
class=3DEmailStyle20><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><SPAN=20
class=3DEmailStyle20><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">E<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 1in"><FONT =
face=3DTahoma color=3Dblack=20
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