Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Hill, Ernie" <Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M update
Date: Fri, 31 May 2002 17:43:26 -0500
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Bert,
=20
First I butcherd Fibonacci's name in my previous post, secondly here are a
couple of links that should give you a better idea just what Fibonacci
retracements are all about.
=20
E
=20
http://stocks.about.com/library/weekly/aa072400a.htm
<http://stocks.about.com/library/weekly/aa072400a.htm>=20
=20
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks/education/fibonacci/
<http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks/education/fibonacci/>=20
- -----Original Message-----
From: Bert Pesak [mailto:bpesak@rcn.com]
Sent: Friday, May 31, 2002 5:29 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M update
Ernie,
Thanks
Bert
- ----- Original Message -----=20
From: Hill, <mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com> Ernie=20
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' <mailto:'canslim@lists.xmission.com'> =20
Sent: Friday, May 31, 2002 4:48 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M update
Bert,
=20
Part of my methodology involves proprietary tools that I am not at liberty
to reveal. However, the tools that I can reveal are simple trend lines,
Elliott WaveT heory, and Fibinocci ratio analysis. The best book I know of
to learn about Elliott Wave Theory and Fibinocci numbers is "Elliott Wave
Theory" by Frost and Prechter.
=20
E
- -----Original Message-----
From: Bert Pesak [mailto:bpesak@rcn.com]
Sent: Friday, May 31, 2002 10:59 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M update
Ernie,
=20
I would like to have a better understanding of the process you are using to
make your projections.
Could you recommend some reading material on the process you are using.
=20
Thanks
Bert Pesak
bpesak@rcn.com <mailto:bpesak@rcn.com>=20
=20
- ----- Original Message -----=20
From: Hill, <mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com> Ernie=20
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com' <mailto:'canslim@lists.xmission.com'> =20
Sent: Thursday, May 30, 2002 9:22 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] M update
I have included my last forecast at the end of this post for reference
purposes.
=20
The S&P entered my low turn time window yesterday and hit a lower
probability target price of 1054 today also the NAZ, SPX, & the RUT all had
price reversals today or if you prefer =93pollywogs=94 (I am not a candle s=
tick
reader so I am not sure if the volume was there to actually produce
=93pollywogs=94 or not, but today was a reversal day for all of these index=
es in
my terminology none the less).
=20
Despite hitting a price target and creating a reversal bar on the same day I
still believe that we have not quite yet reached the bottom of this move. My
higher probability price target range still makes for a more complete
technical package. Although, I think given the current price structure the
lower part of my target range is not likely to be reached in fact 1035 =96
1038 is more likely to be the bottom.
=20
If in fact today was the bottom of the current down swing there is a strong
possibility that M will advance for a couple of days and then challenge
today=92s low later in the low turn time window which closes on 6-10.
=20
Duke it could be getting very close to time to indulge your =93burn=94.
=20
E
=20
- -----Original Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie=20
Sent: Tuesday, May 21, 2002 8:37 PM
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M
=20
It appears that the high turn has been made. On 5-17 we closed at 1106.59
and then again touched that level on an intra-day basis yesterday. The turn
has apparently come early in the window just 4.41 points shy of the
projected price level. There is a reasonable possibility that the market
will move back up near the turn high over the next couple of days before
resuming the move down. There is a small chance that the market may even
slightly exceed the high and actually make the turn later in the window. If
this happens don=92t be fooled it is only a head fake.
=20
The next low turn has two possible time windows for the turn. The first and
most likely window is within four days of 6-4. The target price range is
1027 to 1034. 1.382 times the move from 5-7 to 5-17 yields 79.51 points
subtract this number from the high of 1106.59 and we arrive at the low
target of 1027.08. A 61.8% retracement of the move from 9-21 to 1-9 yields a
target price of 1033.46. If this projected down move does terminate in the
projected target range, it has the potential to be the end point of the
correction for the entire move from 9-21 to 1-9. And could set the stage for
a significant and sustainable move up.
=20
E
=20
=20
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This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso=20
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If you have received this email in error please notify the=20
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This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso=20
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D769143622-31052002>Bert,</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D769143622-31052002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN class=3D769143622-31052002>First I b=
utcherd=20
Fibonacci's name in my previous post, secondly here are a couple of links t=
hat=20
should give you a better idea just what Fibonacci retracements are all=20
about.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D769143622-31052002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D769143622-31052002>E</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=3D#0000ff face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=3D#0000ff face=3DArial size=3D2><A=20
href=3D"http://stocks.about.com/library/weekly/aa072400a.htm">http://stocks=
.about.com/library/weekly/aa072400a.htm</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><A=20
href=3D"http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks/education/fibonacci/">ht=
tp://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks/education/fibonacci/</A></FONT></D=
IV>
<BLOCKQUOTE style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV align=3Dleft class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr><FONT face=3DTah=
oma=20
size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> Bert Pesak=20
[mailto:bpesak@rcn.com]<BR><B>Sent:</B> Friday, May 31, 2002 5:29=20
PM<BR><B>To:</B> canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSL=
IM] M=20
update<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Ernie,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Thanks</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Bert</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: =
0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>F=
rom:</B>=20
<A href=3D"mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com" title=3DErnie.Hill@ElPaso.com>=
Hill,=20
Ernie</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
href=3D"mailto:'canslim@lists.xmission.com'"=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com>'canslim@lists.xmission.com'</A> </D=
IV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, May 31, 2002 4:48=
P
M</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] M update<=
/DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=3D#0000ff face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D001253720-31052002>Bert,</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=3D#0000ff face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D001253720-31052002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=3D#0000ff face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D001253720-31052002>Part of my methodology involves proprietary =
tools=20
that I am not at liberty to reveal. However, the tools that I can revea=
l are=20
simple trend lines, Elliott WaveT heory, and Fibinocci ratio analysis. =
The=20
best book I know of to learn about Elliott Wave Theory and Fibinocci nu=
mbers=20
is "Elliott Wave Theory" by Frost and Prechter.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=3D#0000ff face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D001253720-31052002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=3D#0000ff face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D001253720-31052002>E</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV align=3Dleft class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr><FONT face=
=3DTahoma=20
size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> Bert Pesak=20
[mailto:bpesak@rcn.com]<BR><B>Sent:</B> Friday, May 31, 2002 10:59=20
AM<BR><B>To:</B> canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re:=20
[CANSLIM] M update<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Ernie,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>I would like to have a better understanding of th=
e=20
process you are using to make your projections.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Could you recommend some reading material on the =
process=20
you are using.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Thanks</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Bert Pesak</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2><A=20
href=3D"mailto:bpesak@rcn.com">bpesak@rcn.com</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIG=
HT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">=
<B>From:</B>=20
<A href=3D"mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com" title=3DErnie.Hill@ElPaso.=
com>Hill,=20
Ernie</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
href=3D"mailto:'canslim@lists.xmission.com'"=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com>'canslim@lists.xmission.com'</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, May 30, 2002=
9:22=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] M update<=
/DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV class=3DSection1>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT color=3D#9933=
66=20
face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 1=
2.0pt">I=20
have included my last forecast at the end of this post for referenc=
e=20
purposes.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT color=3D#9933=
66=20
face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 1=
2.0pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT><=
/SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT color=3D#9933=
66=20
face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 1=
2.0pt">The=20
S&P entered my low turn time window yesterday and hit a lower=
probability target price of 1054 today also the NAZ, SPX, & the=
RUT=20
all had price reversals today or if you prefer =93pollywogs=94 (I a=
m not a=20
candle stick reader so I am not sure if the volume was there to act=
ually=20
produce =93pollywogs=94 or not, but today was a reversal day for al=
l of=20
these indexes in my terminology none the=20
less).<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT color=3D#9933=
66=20
face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 1=
2.0pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT><=
/SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT color=3D#9933=
66=20
face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 1=
2.0pt">Despite=20
hitting a price target and creating a reversal bar on the same day =
I=20
still believe that we have not quite yet reached the bottom of this=
move. My higher probability price target range still makes for a mo=
re=20
complete technical package. Although, I think given the current pri=
ce=20
structure the lower part of my target range is not likely to be rea=
ched=20
in fact 1035 =96 1038 is more likely to be the=20
bottom.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT color=3D#9933=
66=20
face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 1=
2.0pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT><=
/SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT color=3D#9933=
66=20
face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 1=
2.0pt">If=20
in fact today was the bottom of the current down swing there is a s=
trong=20
possibility that M will advance for a couple of days and then chall=
enge=20
today=92s low later in the low turn time window which closes on=20
6-10.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT color=3D#9933=
66=20
face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 1=
2.0pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT><=
/SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT color=3D#9933=
66=20
face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 1=
2.0pt">Duke=20
it could be getting very close to time to indulge your=20
=93burn=94.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT color=3D#9933=
66=20
face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 1=
2.0pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT><=
/SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT color=3D#9933=
66=20
face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 1=
2.0pt">E<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT color=3D#9933=
66=20
face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 1=
2.0pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT><=
/SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT color=3Dbla=
ck=20
face=3DTahoma size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">-----O=
riginal=20
Message-----<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">From:</SPAN></=
B>=20
Hill, Ernie <BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent:</SPAN></=
B>=20
Tuesday, May 21, 2002 8:37 PM<BR><B><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">To:</SPAN></B>=20
'canslim@lists.xmission.com'<BR><B><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject:</SPAN></B> RE: [CANSLIM]=20
M</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=3D#993366><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: #993366; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SP=
AN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT color=3D#99=
3366=20
face=3D"Times New Roman" size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: #993366; FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]=
><![endif]> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3D#993366><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: #993366; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SP=
AN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><SPAN=20
class=3DEmailStyle20><FONT color=3Dnavy face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=
style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 1=
2.0pt">It=20
appears that the high turn has been made. On 5-17 we closed at 1106=
.59=20
and then again touched that level on an intra-day basis yesterday. =
The=20
turn has apparently come early in the window just 4.41 points shy o=
f the=20
projected price level. There is a reasonable possibility that the m=
arket=20
will move back up near the turn high over the next couple of days b=
efore=20
resuming the move down. There is a small chance that the market may=
even=20
slightly exceed the high and actually make the turn later in the wi=
ndow.=20
If this happens don=92t be fooled it is only a head=20
fake.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><SPAN=20
class=3DEmailStyle20><FONT color=3Dnavy face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=
style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 1=
2.0pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT><=
/SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><SPAN=20
class=3DEmailStyle20><FONT color=3Dnavy face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=
style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 1=
2.0pt">The=20
next low turn has two possible time windows for the turn. The first=
and=20
most likely window is within four days of 6-4. The target price ran=
ge is=20
1027 to 1034. 1.382 times the move from 5-7 to 5-17 yields 79.51 po=
ints=20
subtract this number from the high of 1106.59 and we arrive at the =
low=20
target of 1027.08. A 61.8% retracement of the move from 9-21 to 1-9=
yields a target price of 1033.46. If this projected down move does=
terminate in the projected target range, it has the potential to be=
the=20
end point of the correction for the entire move from 9-21 to 1-9. A=
nd=20
could set the stage for a significant and sustainable move=20
up.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><SPAN=20
class=3DEmailStyle20><FONT color=3Dnavy face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=
style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 1=
2.0pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT><=
/SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><SPAN=20
class=3DEmailStyle20><FONT color=3Dnavy face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=
style=3D"FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 1=
2.0pt">E<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 1in"><FONT color=3Dblack=
face=3DTahoma size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT color=3D#99=
3366=20
face=3D"Times New Roman" size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: #993366; FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><![if !supportEmptyParas]=
><![endif]> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3D#993366><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: #993366; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SP=
AN></FONT></P></DIV><CODE><FONT=20
size=3D3><BR><BR>**************************************************=
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email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso <BR>Corporation=
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