Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sat, 1 Jun 2002 21:31:20 -0400
Previous Article (by Subject): Re: [CANSLIM] semi-log DGO? Richard Yoder
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_03DB_01C209B3.ABE283E0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_03DC_01C209B3.ABE283E0" - ------=_NextPart_001_03DC_01C209B3.ABE283E0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable M Difficult week for me to follow the markets, over 46 hours at work in = just 4 days. But my general sense, despite every index being down over = 1% for the week, is that there is a resilience to the markets right now. = Economics continue to improve, earnings more often than not are ahead of = forecasts, confidence remains good (critical to consumer spending = continuing). I remain fully invested in small and micro cap growth = stocks, and managed to make money this past week despite Russell 2000 = being down 1.25%. But I am also not finding new candidates, just riding = what I already have. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- JAPAN Moody's downgraded their credit rating two more notches, putting them = one below Botswana and even with Kuwait. Govt debt stands at 140% of = their GDP as they appear headed back into a double dip recession after = one quarter of minor GDP growth. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- ECONOMICS - watch the trend in revisions, and actual reports vs = expectations University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index for May surprised all = by being revised upward to 96.9 from 96.0. It was 93.0 in April. = Consumer views of the state of the economy was revised sharply up to = 103.5, April was 99.2. Consumer expectations was also revised sharply = upward to 92.7 from 91.3 after reporting 89.1 in April. Chicago Purchasing Managers index was expected to rise to 55 in May from = 54.7 in April, instead leapt to 60.8, suggesting that business spending = is starting to pick up strongly. This index is seen as often mirroring = the nat'l report, due out next Monday. US factory orders rose 1.2% in May from 1.0% in April, expected was a = rise of just 0.7%. The trend is clear, this was the fifth consecutive = month of gains. Productivity grew at a revised 8.4% annual rate (preliminary was 8.6%, = no change was expected) during the first quarter. This is the strongest = since Q2 1983. On unemployment, new claims declined but remained above 400K for the 8th = week. Those continuing to receive benefits rose 50K to 3.89 million, = highest since Jan 15, 1983 (course there are a lot more people working = today compared to 1983). This recovery is taking on some signs, with = regard to employment, suggesting the 1990-1991 recovery, when = unemployment remained high for over a year. Overall rate of unemployment = is expected to be reported next week at 6.1%, up from 6%. Of course, it = was not that many years ago, before Greenspan proved he could fight = inflation, that the markets believed that unemployment much below 6% was = inflationary, and under 5% was dangerous. The May Unemployment Report is = the big economic one for next week, due on Friday. Consumer confidence rose to 109.8 from a revised April level of 108.5, = expectations were for a rate of 110.0. Existing home sales jumped 7% to an annual rate of 5.79 million units, = up from a revised April rate of 5.41, and well ahead of expectations for = 5.35 million units. With existing sales remaining strong, I would expect = to see new home sales also remain strong overall. Personal spending rose 0.5% (I did my share and a few others as well), = while personal income rose 0.3% (someone else got mine). Income was in = line with expectations, while spending fell short of expectations for a = rise to 0.7%. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- =20 WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES As always, I will mention specific basing formations, such as c&h, = double bottoms, or non-CANSLIM ones like LLUR (Lower Left Upper Right) = or flat line bases (marked as Bx where x indicates the number of weeks = IMO). Most stocks in this list will have both RS and EPS of 80 or = better, and be close to their 12 month high. I try to glance at the = earnings forecast, and eliminate any less than 20% for this year and = next, but do no other due diligence. I exclude any stocks under any form = of merger / acquisition. The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend slid further this = past week. AMSG - kind of an odd looking c&h, Thursday broke up from a nicely = declining handle on volume to the pivot point, worth watching AZO - high handle forming BEL - 6 week consolidation ERES - BE FCFS- B6, broke pivot Friday on 8X ADV LION - B6 MCL - LLUR OCAS - LLUR, no revenue growth ODSY - 6 week consolidation, volume declining, another play on the aging = baby boomer market? PETM - LLUR ROST - LLUR SSNC - 6 week consolidation, mostly light volume SYPR - nice 8 week consolidation, volume drying up, funds have 54%, but = only because float very small due management having 87%, in my VR Fund WFMI - B3 ZAP - nice c&h Happy Hunting, Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_03DC_01C209B3.ABE283E0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2716.2200" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>M</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Difficult week for me to follow the markets, = over 46 hours=20 at work in just 4 days. But my general sense, despite every index being = down=20 over 1% for the week, is that there is a resilience to the markets right = now.=20 Economics continue to improve, earnings more often than not are ahead of = forecasts, confidence remains good (critical to consumer spending = continuing). I=20 remain fully invested in small and micro cap growth stocks, and managed = to make=20 money this past week despite Russell 2000 being down 1.25%. But I am = also not=20 finding new candidates, just riding what I already have. <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>JAPAN</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Moody's downgraded their credit rating two more = notches,=20 putting them one below Botswana and even with Kuwait. Govt debt stands = at 140%=20 of their GDP as they appear headed back into a double dip recession = after one=20 quarter of minor GDP growth.</FONT> <HR> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>ECONOMICS -</STRONG> <EM>watch the trend = in=20 revisions, and actual reports vs expectations</EM></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment = Index for May=20 surprised all by being revised upward to 96.9 from 96.0. It was 93.0 in = April.=20 Consumer views of the state of the economy was revised sharply up to = 103.5,=20 April was 99.2. Consumer expectations was also revised sharply upward to = 92.7=20 from 91.3 after reporting 89.1 in April.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Chicago Purchasing Managers index was expected = to rise to=20 55 in May from 54.7 in April, instead leapt to 60.8, suggesting that = business=20 spending is starting to pick up strongly. This index is seen as often = mirroring=20 the nat'l report, due out next Monday.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>US factory orders rose 1.2% in May from 1.0% in = April,=20 expected was a rise of just 0.7%. The trend is clear, this was the fifth = consecutive month of gains.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Productivity grew at a revised 8.4% annual rate=20 (preliminary was 8.6%, no change was expected) during the first quarter. = This is=20 the strongest since Q2 1983.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>On unemployment, new claims declined but = remained above=20 400K for the 8th week. Those continuing to receive benefits rose 50K to = 3.89=20 million, highest since Jan 15, 1983 (course there are a lot more people = working=20 today compared to 1983). This recovery is taking on some signs, with = regard to=20 employment, suggesting the 1990-1991 recovery, when unemployment = remained high=20 for over a year. Overall rate of unemployment is expected to be reported = next=20 week at 6.1%, up from 6%. Of course, it was not that many years ago, = before=20 Greenspan proved he could fight inflation, that the markets believed = that=20 unemployment much below 6% was inflationary, and under 5% was dangerous. = The May=20 Unemployment Report is the big economic one for next week, due on=20 Friday.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Consumer confidence rose to 109.8 from a revised = April=20 level of 108.5, expectations were for a rate of 110.0.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Existing home sales jumped 7% to an annual rate = of 5.79=20 million units, up from a revised April rate of 5.41, and well ahead of=20 expectations for 5.35 million units. With existing sales remaining = strong, I=20 would expect to see new home sales also remain strong = overall.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Personal spending rose 0.5% (I did my share and = a few=20 others as well), while personal income rose 0.3% (someone else got = mine). Income=20 was in line with expectations, while spending fell short of expectations = for a=20 rise to 0.7%.</DIV> <DIV> <HR> </DIV> <DIV> <DIV><STRONG>WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES</STRONG></DIV> <DIV>As always, I will mention specific basing formations, such as = c&h,=20 double bottoms, or non-CANSLIM ones like LLUR (Lower Left Upper Right) = or flat=20 line bases (marked as Bx where x indicates the number of weeks IMO). = Most stocks=20 in this list will have both RS and EPS of 80 or better, and be close to = their 12=20 month high. I try to glance at the earnings forecast, and eliminate any = less=20 than 20% for this year and next, but do no other due diligence. I = exclude any=20 stocks under any form of merger / acquisition. <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend slid = further this=20 past week.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>AMSG - kind of an odd looking c&h, Thursday broke up from a = nicely=20 declining handle on volume to the pivot point, worth watching</DIV> <DIV>AZO - high handle forming</DIV> <DIV>BEL - 6 week consolidation</DIV> <DIV>ERES - BE</DIV> <DIV>FCFS- B6, broke pivot Friday on 8X ADV</DIV> <DIV>LION - B6</DIV> <DIV>MCL - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>OCAS - LLUR, no revenue growth</DIV> <DIV>ODSY - 6 week consolidation, volume declining, another play on the = aging=20 baby boomer market?</DIV> <DIV>PETM - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>ROST - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>SSNC - 6 week consolidation, mostly light volume</DIV> <DIV>SYPR - nice 8 week consolidation, volume drying up, funds have 54%, = but=20 only because float very small due management having 87%, in my VR = Fund</DIV> <DIV>WFMI - B3</DIV> <DIV>ZAP - nice c&h</DIV></DIV></DIV></FONT> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Happy Hunting,</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><IMG alt=3D"" hspace=3D0 = src=3D"cid:03da01c209d5$32f423e0$9300a8c0@TOMSBOX"=20 align=3Dbaseline border=3D0></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR></FONT><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net"><FONT=20 face=3DArial>stkguru@bellsouth.net</FONT></A><BR><FONT face=3DArial>AIM: = TexWorley</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_001_03DC_01C209B3.ABE283E0-- - ------=_NextPart_000_03DB_01C209B3.ABE283E0 Content-Type: image/gif; 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