Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Bert Pesak" <bpesak@rcn.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M update
Date: Mon, 3 Jun 2002 08:02:07 -0400
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Ernie,
Thanks again.
Bert
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Hill, Ernie=20
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=20
Sent: Friday, May 31, 2002 6:43 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M update
Bert,
First I butcherd Fibonacci's name in my previous post, secondly here =
are a couple of links that should give you a better idea just what =
Fibonacci retracements are all about.
E
http://stocks.about.com/library/weekly/aa072400a.htm
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks/education/fibonacci/
-----Original Message-----
From: Bert Pesak [mailto:bpesak@rcn.com]
Sent: Friday, May 31, 2002 5:29 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M update
Ernie,
Thanks
Bert
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Hill, Ernie=20
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=20
Sent: Friday, May 31, 2002 4:48P M
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M update
Bert,
Part of my methodology involves proprietary tools that I am not at =
liberty to reveal. However, the tools that I can reveal are simple trend =
lines, Elliott WaveT heory, and Fibinocci ratio analysis. The best book =
I know of to learn about Elliott Wave Theory and Fibinocci numbers is =
"Elliott Wave Theory" by Frost and Prechter.
E
-----Original Message-----
From: Bert Pesak [mailto:bpesak@rcn.com]
Sent: Friday, May 31, 2002 10:59 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M update
Ernie,
I would like to have a better understanding of the process you =
are using to make your projections.
Could you recommend some reading material on the process you are =
using.
Thanks
Bert Pesak
bpesak@rcn.com
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Hill, Ernie=20
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=20
Sent: Thursday, May 30, 2002 9:22 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] M update
I have included my last forecast at the end of this post for =
reference purposes.
=20
The S&P entered my low turn time window yesterday and hit a =
lower probability target price of 1054 today also the NAZ, SPX, & the =
RUT all had price reversals today or if you prefer =93pollywogs=94 (I am =
not a candle stick reader so I am not sure if the volume was there to =
actually produce =93pollywogs=94 or not, but today was a reversal day =
for all of these indexes in my terminology none the less).
=20
Despite hitting a price target and creating a reversal bar on =
the same day I still believe that we have not quite yet reached the =
bottom of this move. My higher probability price target range still =
makes for a more complete technical package. Although, I think given the =
current price structure the lower part of my target range is not likely =
to be reached in fact 1035 =96 1038 is more likely to be the bottom.
=20
If in fact today was the bottom of the current down swing =
there is a strong possibility that M will advance for a couple of days =
and then challenge today=92s low later in the low turn time window which =
closes on 6-10.
=20
Duke it could be getting very close to time to indulge your =
=93burn=94.
=20
E
=20
-----Original Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie=20
Sent: Tuesday, May 21, 2002 8:37 PM
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M
=20
It appears that the high turn has been made. On 5-17 we closed =
at 1106.59 and then again touched that level on an intra-day basis =
yesterday. The turn has apparently come early in the window just 4.41 =
points shy of the projected price level. There is a reasonable =
possibility that the market will move back up near the turn high over =
the next couple of days before resuming the move down. There is a small =
chance that the market may even slightly exceed the high and actually =
make the turn later in the window. If this happens don=92t be fooled it =
is only a head fake.
=20
The next low turn has two possible time windows for the turn. =
The first and most likely window is within four days of 6-4. The target =
price range is 1027 to 1034. 1.382 times the move from 5-7 to 5-17 =
yields 79.51 points subtract this number from the high of 1106.59 and we =
arrive at the low target of 1027.08. A 61.8% retracement of the move =
from 9-21 to 1-9 yields a target price of 1033.46. If this projected =
down move does terminate in the projected target range, it has the =
potential to be the end point of the correction for the entire move from =
9-21 to 1-9. And could set the stage for a significant and sustainable =
move up.
=20
E
=20
=20
=
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<DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Ernie,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Thanks again.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Bert</FONT></DIV></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3DErnie.Hill@ElPaso.com =
href=3D"mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com">Hill,=20
Ernie</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:'canslim@lists.xmission.com'">'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=
</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, May 31, 2002 6:43 =
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] M =
update</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D769143622-31052002>Bert,</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D769143622-31052002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN =
class=3D769143622-31052002>First I butcherd=20
Fibonacci's name in my previous post, secondly here are a couple of =
links that=20
should give you a better idea just what Fibonacci retracements are all =
about.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D769143622-31052002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D769143622-31052002>E</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><A=20
=
href=3D"http://stocks.about.com/library/weekly/aa072400a.htm">http://stoc=
ks.about.com/library/weekly/aa072400a.htm</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><A=20
=
href=3D"http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks/education/fibonacci/">=
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks/education/fibonacci/</A></FONT=
></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr align=3Dleft><FONT =
face=3DTahoma=20
size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> Bert Pesak=20
[mailto:bpesak@rcn.com]<BR><B>Sent:</B> Friday, May 31, 2002 5:29=20
PM<BR><B>To:</B> canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: =
[CANSLIM]=20
M update<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Ernie,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Thanks</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Bert</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3DErnie.Hill@ElPaso.com =
href=3D"mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com">Hill,=20
Ernie</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:'canslim@lists.xmission.com'">'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=
</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, May 31, 2002 =
4:48P=20
M</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] M =
update</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D001253720-31052002>Bert,</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D001253720-31052002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D001253720-31052002>Part of my methodology involves =
proprietary tools=20
that I am not at liberty to reveal. However, the tools that I can =
reveal=20
are simple trend lines, Elliott WaveT heory, and Fibinocci ratio =
analysis.=20
The best book I know of to learn about Elliott Wave Theory and =
Fibinocci=20
numbers is "Elliott Wave Theory" by Frost and=20
Prechter.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D001253720-31052002></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D001253720-31052002>E</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr align=3Dleft><FONT =
face=3DTahoma=20
size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> Bert Pesak=20
[mailto:bpesak@rcn.com]<BR><B>Sent:</B> Friday, May 31, 2002 =
10:59=20
AM<BR><B>To:</B> canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> =
Re:=20
[CANSLIM] M update<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Ernie,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>I would like to have a better understanding =
of the=20
process you are using to make your projections.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Could you recommend some reading material on =
the=20
process you are using.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Thanks</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Bert Pesak</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2><A=20
href=3D"mailto:bpesak@rcn.com">bpesak@rcn.com</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: =
5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3DErnie.Hill@ElPaso.com=20
href=3D"mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com">Hill, Ernie</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:'canslim@lists.xmission.com'">'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=
</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, May 30, =
2002 9:22=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] M =
update</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV class=3DSection1>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3D#993366 size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">I=20
have included my last forecast at the end of this post for =
reference=20
purposes.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3D#993366 size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3D#993366 size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">The=20
S&P entered my low turn time window yesterday and hit a =
lower=20
probability target price of 1054 today also the NAZ, SPX, =
& the=20
RUT all had price reversals today or if you prefer =
=93pollywogs=94 (I am=20
not a candle stick reader so I am not sure if the volume was =
there to=20
actually produce =93pollywogs=94 or not, but today was a =
reversal day for=20
all of these indexes in my terminology none the=20
less).<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3D#993366 size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3D#993366 size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Despite=20
hitting a price target and creating a reversal bar on the same =
day I=20
still believe that we have not quite yet reached the bottom of =
this=20
move. My higher probability price target range still makes for =
a more=20
complete technical package. Although, I think given the =
current price=20
structure the lower part of my target range is not likely to =
be=20
reached in fact 1035 =96 1038 is more likely to be the=20
bottom.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3D#993366 size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3D#993366 size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">If=20
in fact today was the bottom of the current down swing there =
is a=20
strong possibility that M will advance for a couple of days =
and then=20
challenge today=92s low later in the low turn time window =
which closes=20
on 6-10.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3D#993366 size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3D#993366 size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Duke=20
it could be getting very close to time to indulge your=20
=93burn=94.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3D#993366 size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3D#993366 size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">E<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3D#993366 size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT =
face=3DTahoma=20
color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Tahoma">-----Original=20
Message-----<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: =
bold">From:</SPAN></B>=20
Hill, Ernie <BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: =
bold">Sent:</SPAN></B>=20
Tuesday, May 21, 2002 8:37 PM<BR><B><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">To:</SPAN></B>=20
'canslim@lists.xmission.com'<BR><B><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject:</SPAN></B> RE: [CANSLIM]=20
M</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=3D#993366><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: #993366; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT=20
face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3D#993366 size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #993366"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3D#993366><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: #993366; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><SPAN=20
class=3DEmailStyle20><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">It=20
appears that the high turn has been made. On 5-17 we closed at =
1106.59=20
and then again touched that level on an intra-day basis =
yesterday. The=20
turn has apparently come early in the window just 4.41 points =
shy of=20
the projected price level. There is a reasonable possibility =
that the=20
market will move back up near the turn high over the next =
couple of=20
days before resuming the move down. There is a small chance =
that the=20
market may even slightly exceed the high and actually make the =
turn=20
later in the window. If this happens don=92t be fooled it is =
only a head=20
fake.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><SPAN=20
class=3DEmailStyle20><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><SPAN=20
class=3DEmailStyle20><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">The=20
next low turn has two possible time windows for the turn. The =
first=20
and most likely window is within four days of 6-4. The target =
price=20
range is 1027 to 1034. 1.382 times the move from 5-7 to 5-17 =
yields=20
79.51 points subtract this number from the high of 1106.59 and =
we=20
arrive at the low target of 1027.08. A 61.8% retracement of =
the move=20
from 9-21 to 1-9 yields a target price of 1033.46. If this =
projected=20
down move does terminate in the projected target range, it has =
the=20
potential to be the end point of the correction for the entire =
move=20
from 9-21 to 1-9. And could set the stage for a significant =
and=20
sustainable move up.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><SPAN=20
class=3DEmailStyle20><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><SPAN=20
class=3DEmailStyle20><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">E<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 1in"><FONT =
face=3DTahoma=20
color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Tahoma"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT=20
face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3D#993366 size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #993366"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3D#993366><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: #993366; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV><CODE><FONT=20
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size=3D3><BR><BR>********************************************************=
**********<BR>This=20
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