Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Patrick Wahl" <pjwahl@attbi.com>
Subject: [CANSLIM] miscellaneous market junk
Date: Wed, 5 Jun 2002 20:43:42 -0600
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Some stuff I've come across in the last week that started piling up in my brain, just some ideas to ponder about the very big market picture - From Alan Farley, pretty good one - http://www.hardrightedge.com/realmoney1.htm And the following charts can be used with the excerpt below from Art Cashin, found these comments on a web site this week, think he made them last week somewhere. http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/historical/ Look at the period from 1965 to about 1981 on the shorter DJIA chart, not very attractive if that is what we are in for, you can also see that it went parabolic in 1995. Similar picture in S&P. I think this might be the "regression to the mean" period we are in now. Here are Cashin's comments, the text was a little chopped up when I got it - - ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- We have occasionally alluded to cycles in trading. The ones we usually talk about are short-term and thus ephemeral and erratic. There are much longer cycles. Cycles go back through human history - and before humans. Scientists examine tree rings and sediment structure to estimate climate cycles. One of the most well known cycle references is in the Old Testament. Joseph (of the coat of many colors) foresaw 7 Fat Years and 7 Lean Years. During the fat period, crops would grow like weeds and there would be prosperity year after year. In the lean years, it would be tough to make a living. You could still Over the years, lots of cycles have been applied to the stock market. There's the sunspot cycle (11.5 years or 22 years alternating). Then there's the Kondratief cycle (circa 54 years) discovered by a soviet technician and much written about in market circles in the 60's and 70's. Yesterday, as the elders were being asked about the hiding place of the great Bull Market one of the fogeys mentioned the "near 18 year cycle." Like the fat and lean years, it refers to so-called "easy" times to make money in the market versus times requiring much harder work. The fogeys suggested it was For ease of explanation to the juniors, one of the fogeys decimalized the number as 17.6 years so they could use their calculators. He then postulated this example - Let's say the markets topped out in about February 2000. Let's call that 2000.2. Subtract 17.6 and you're back in about July 1982 (1982.60). The Dow was around 900. So you could see why those were a fat (easy) 17 years. Take away 17.6 again and you are back around January of 1965 and Many twists and turns in those 17 years. Lots of chances to make money. But you had to work for every penny. Take away 17.6 again and you are back around May of 1947. The war is over. The Dow is around 170. Lots of prosperity ahead. Take away 17.6 and you are back around Sept of 1929 and the Dow is around 350. He began to go on. The juniors had had enough. Folks don't like to hear that you can do well only if you do your homework everyday. Having lived through two of those cycles, we can attest to the work cycle. While the cycle exercise tended to depress the impatient juniors, it could encourage those with talent and knowledge. In a period when money doesn't rain from heaven, the value of the those who can find it goes up. Imagine, a "value-added" period for humans. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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