Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Thu, 6 Jun 2002 23:14:58 -0400
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_00D8_01C20DAF.F9D92270 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_00D9_01C20DAF.F9D92270" - ------=_NextPart_001_00D9_01C20DAF.F9D92270 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Hi Kelly, I try to build my weekly email throughout the week, as I come across = interesting snippets. Much of it comes from Infobeat daily emails, = economic reports at various sites including = http://money.cnn.com/news/economy/ , stratfor.com (subscription = service), weekly summaries I receive=20 and scanning the headlines on Reuters and other news services each = morning and some evenings. Lack of time precludes me getting very = scientific with what I try to absorb, so my comments on "M" are usually = an opinionated summary of what was absorbed in my gray matter. Some economic reports weigh more heavily with me than others, both = because they tend to be market movers (like the Employment report due = tomorrow), as well as because of my perception of what the Feds are = watching more closely. Some can also take on, at least temporarily, = added importance, such as inflation indicators right now when everyone = is trying to guess when the Feds will start raising rates (I said many = months ago not till July/August meeting at earliest, and possibly not = this year, latter looking more likely). I have a number of other sites I use when time permits (which hasn't = happened often lately with continuing 12 hour work days). I will try to = put a list of addresses together for you when I get a chance. - ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Kelly Short=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Thursday, June 06, 2002 12:45 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview Tom- information on M much appreciated. There seem to be multiple = reports that provide nuggets of golden information just before major = market news reports reflecting the same information. Would you be = willing to list which reports you watch on a quarterly/yearly basis, = where you find them, and when they come out? Your assistance would be = greatly appreciated. -Kelly -----Original Message----- From: Tom Worley [mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net] Sent: Saturday, June 01, 2002 8:31 PM To: CANSLIM Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview M Difficult week for me to follow the markets, over 46 hours at work in = just 4 days. But my general sense, despite every index being down over = 1% for the week, is that there is a resilience to the markets right now. = Economics continue to improve, earnings more often than not are ahead of = forecasts, confidence remains good (critical to consumer spending = continuing). I remain fully invested in small and micro cap growth = stocks, and managed to make money this past week despite Russell 2000 = being down 1.25%. But I am also not finding new candidates, just riding = what I already have.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ----- JAPAN Moody's downgraded their credit rating two more notches, putting them = one below Botswana and even with Kuwait. Govt debt stands at 140% of = their GDP as they appear headed back into a double dip recession after = one quarter of minor GDP growth.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ----- ECONOMICS - watch the trend in revisions, and actual reports vs = expectations University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index for May surprised = all by being revised upward to 96.9 from 96.0. It was 93.0 in April. = Consumer views of the state of the economy was revised sharply up to = 103.5, April was 99.2. Consumer expectations was also revised sharply = upward to 92.7 from 91.3 after reporting 89.1 in April. Chicago Purchasing Managers index was expected to rise to 55 in May = from 54.7 in April, instead leapt to 60.8, suggesting that business = spending is starting to pick up strongly. This index is seen as often = mirroring the nat'l report, due out next Monday. US factory orders rose 1.2% in May from 1.0% in April, expected was a = rise of just 0.7%. The trend is clear, this was the fifth consecutive = month of gains. Productivity grew at a revised 8.4% annual rate (preliminary was 8.6%, = no change was expected) during the first quarter. This is the strongest = since Q2 1983. On unemployment, new claims declined but remained above 400K for the = 8th week. Those continuing to receive benefits rose 50K to 3.89 million, = highest since Jan 15, 1983 (course there are a lot more people working = today compared to 1983). This recovery is taking on some signs, with = regard to employment, suggesting the 1990-1991 recovery, when = unemployment remained high for over a year. Overall rate of unemployment = is expected to be reported next week at 6.1%, up from 6%. Of course, it = was not that many years ago, before Greenspan proved he could fight = inflation, that the markets believed that unemployment much below 6% was = inflationary, and under 5% was dangerous. The May Unemployment Report is = the big economic one for next week, due on Friday. Consumer confidence rose to 109.8 from a revised April level of 108.5, = expectations were for a rate of 110.0. Existing home sales jumped 7% to an annual rate of 5.79 million units, = up from a revised April rate of 5.41, and well ahead of expectations for = 5.35 million units. With existing sales remaining strong, I would expect = to see new home sales also remain strong overall. Personal spending rose 0.5% (I did my share and a few others as well), = while personal income rose 0.3% (someone else got mine). Income was in = line with expectations, while spending fell short of expectations for a = rise to 0.7%. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ----- =20 WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES As always, I will mention specific basing formations, such as c&h, = double bottoms, or non-CANSLIM ones like LLUR (Lower Left Upper Right) = or flat line bases (marked as Bx where x indicates the number of weeks = IMO). Most stocks in this list will have both RS and EPS of 80 or = better, and be close to their 12 month high. I try to glance at the = earnings forecast, and eliminate any less than 20% for this year and = next, but do no other due diligence. I exclude any stocks under any form = of merger / acquisition.=20 The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend slid further this = past week. AMSG - kind of an odd looking c&h, Thursday broke up from a nicely = declining handle on volume to the pivot point, worth watching AZO - high handle forming BEL - 6 week consolidation ERES - BE FCFS- B6, broke pivot Friday on 8X ADV LION - B6 MCL - LLUR OCAS - LLUR, no revenue growth ODSY - 6 week consolidation, volume declining, another play on the = aging baby boomer market? PETM - LLUR ROST - LLUR SSNC - 6 week consolidation, mostly light volume SYPR - nice 8 week consolidation, volume drying up, funds have 54%, = but only because float very small due management having 87%, in my VR = Fund WFMI - B3 ZAP - nice c&h Happy Hunting, Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ----- For your protection, this e-mail message has been scanned for viruses. = Visit us at http://www.neoris.com/=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ----- - ------=_NextPart_001_00D9_01C20DAF.F9D92270 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2716.2200" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Hi Kelly,</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I try to build my weekly email throughout the = week, as I=20 come across interesting snippets. Much of it comes from Infobeat daily = emails,=20 economic reports at various sites including <A=20 href=3D"http://money.cnn.com/news/economy/">http://money.cnn.com/news/eco= nomy/</A> ,=20 stratfor.com (subscription service), weekly summaries I receive = </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>and scanning the headlines on Reuters and other = news=20 services each morning and some evenings. Lack of time precludes me = getting very=20 scientific with what I try to absorb, so my comments on "M" are usually = an=20 opinionated summary of what was absorbed in my gray matter.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Some economic reports weigh more heavily with me = than=20 others, both because they tend to be market movers (like the Employment = report=20 due tomorrow), as well as because of my perception of what the Feds are = watching=20 more closely. Some can also take on, at least temporarily, added = importance,=20 such as inflation indicators right now when everyone is trying to guess = when the=20 Feds will start raising rates (I said many months ago not till = July/August=20 meeting at earliest, and possibly not this year, latter looking more=20 likely).</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I have a number of other sites I use when time = permits=20 (which hasn't happened often lately with continuing 12 hour work days). = I will=20 try to put a list of addresses together for you when I get a=20 chance.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----=20 <DIV style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A=20 title=3Dkelly.short@neoris.com = href=3D"mailto:kelly.short@neoris.com">Kelly=20 Short</A> </DIV> <DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20 href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>= </DIV> <DIV><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, June 06, 2002 12:45 PM</DIV> <DIV><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview</DIV></DIV> <DIV><BR></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D069104416-06062002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2>Tom-=20 information on M much appreciated. There seem to be multiple reports = that=20 provide nuggets of golden information just before major market news = reports=20 reflecting the same information. Would you be willing to list which = reports you=20 watch on a quarterly/yearly basis, where you find them, and when they = come out?=20 Your assistance would be greatly appreciated. -Kelly</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"> <DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr align=3Dleft><FONT = face=3DTahoma=20 size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> Tom Worley=20 [mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net]<BR><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, June 01, 2002 = 8:31=20 PM<BR><B>To:</B> CANSLIM<BR><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend = Weeview<BR><BR></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>M</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Difficult week for me to follow the markets, = over 46=20 hours at work in just 4 days. But my general sense, despite every = index being=20 down over 1% for the week, is that there is a resilience to the = markets right=20 now. Economics continue to improve, earnings more often than not are = ahead of=20 forecasts, confidence remains good (critical to consumer spending = continuing).=20 I remain fully invested in small and micro cap growth stocks, and = managed to=20 make money this past week despite Russell 2000 being down 1.25%. But I = am also=20 not finding new candidates, just riding what I already have.=20 <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>JAPAN</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Moody's downgraded their credit rating two = more notches,=20 putting them one below Botswana and even with Kuwait. Govt debt stands = at 140%=20 of their GDP as they appear headed back into a double dip recession = after one=20 quarter of minor GDP growth.</FONT>=20 <HR> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>ECONOMICS -</STRONG> <EM>watch the = trend in=20 revisions, and actual reports vs expectations</EM></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment = Index for=20 May surprised all by being revised upward to 96.9 from 96.0. It was = 93.0 in=20 April. Consumer views of the state of the economy was revised sharply = up to=20 103.5, April was 99.2. Consumer expectations was also revised sharply = upward=20 to 92.7 from 91.3 after reporting 89.1 in April.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Chicago Purchasing Managers index was expected = to rise=20 to 55 in May from 54.7 in April, instead leapt to 60.8, suggesting = that=20 business spending is starting to pick up strongly. This index is seen = as often=20 mirroring the nat'l report, due out next Monday.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>US factory orders rose 1.2% in May from 1.0% = in April,=20 expected was a rise of just 0.7%. The trend is clear, this was the = fifth=20 consecutive month of gains.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Productivity grew at a revised 8.4% annual = rate=20 (preliminary was 8.6%, no change was expected) during the first = quarter. This=20 is the strongest since Q2 1983.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>On unemployment, new claims declined but = remained above=20 400K for the 8th week. Those continuing to receive benefits rose 50K = to 3.89=20 million, highest since Jan 15, 1983 (course there are a lot more = people=20 working today compared to 1983). This recovery is taking on some = signs, with=20 regard to employment, suggesting the 1990-1991 recovery, when = unemployment=20 remained high for over a year. Overall rate of unemployment is = expected to be=20 reported next week at 6.1%, up from 6%. Of course, it was not that = many years=20 ago, before Greenspan proved he could fight inflation, that the = markets=20 believed that unemployment much below 6% was inflationary, and under = 5% was=20 dangerous. The May Unemployment Report is the big economic one for = next week,=20 due on Friday.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Consumer confidence rose to 109.8 from a = revised April=20 level of 108.5, expectations were for a rate of 110.0.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Existing home sales jumped 7% to an annual = rate of 5.79=20 million units, up from a revised April rate of 5.41, and well ahead of = expectations for 5.35 million units. With existing sales remaining = strong, I=20 would expect to see new home sales also remain strong = overall.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Personal spending rose 0.5% (I did my share = and a few=20 others as well), while personal income rose 0.3% (someone else got = mine).=20 Income was in line with expectations, while spending fell short of=20 expectations for a rise to 0.7%.</DIV> <DIV> <HR> </DIV> <DIV> =20 <DIV><STRONG>WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES</STRONG></DIV> <DIV>As always, I will mention specific basing formations, such as = c&h,=20 double bottoms, or non-CANSLIM ones like LLUR (Lower Left Upper Right) = or flat=20 line bases (marked as Bx where x indicates the number of weeks IMO). = Most=20 stocks in this list will have both RS and EPS of 80 or better, and be = close to=20 their 12 month high. I try to glance at the earnings forecast, and = eliminate=20 any less than 20% for this year and next, but do no other due = diligence. I=20 exclude any stocks under any form of merger / acquisition.=20 <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend slid = further=20 this past week.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>AMSG - kind of an odd looking c&h, Thursday broke up from a = nicely=20 declining handle on volume to the pivot point, worth watching</DIV> <DIV>AZO - high handle forming</DIV> <DIV>BEL - 6 week consolidation</DIV> <DIV>ERES - BE</DIV> <DIV>FCFS- B6, broke pivot Friday on 8X ADV</DIV> <DIV>LION - B6</DIV> <DIV>MCL - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>OCAS - LLUR, no revenue growth</DIV> <DIV>ODSY - 6 week consolidation, volume declining, another play on = the aging=20 baby boomer market?</DIV> <DIV>PETM - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>ROST - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>SSNC - 6 week consolidation, mostly light volume</DIV> <DIV>SYPR - nice 8 week consolidation, volume drying up, funds have = 54%, but=20 only because float very small due management having 87%, in my VR = Fund</DIV> <DIV>WFMI - B3</DIV> <DIV>ZAP - nice c&h</DIV></DIV></DIV></FONT> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Happy Hunting,</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><IMG alt=3D"" hspace=3D0 = src=3D"cid:00d701c20dd1$80e62e90$6501a8c0@TOMSBOX"=20 align=3Dbaseline border=3D0></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR></FONT><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net"><FONT=20 face=3DArial>stkguru@bellsouth.net</FONT></A><BR><FONT = face=3DArial>AIM:=20 TexWorley</FONT></DIV> <HR> For your protection, this e-mail message has been scanned for viruses. = <P>Visit us at <A = href=3D"http://www.neoris.com/">http://www.neoris.com/</A>=20 <HR> <P></P></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_001_00D9_01C20DAF.F9D92270-- - ------=_NextPart_000_00D8_01C20DAF.F9D92270 Content-Type: image/gif; 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