[CANSLIM] 17/18 Year Market Cycles

From: "Winston Little" <wlittle1@peoplepc.com>
Subject: [CANSLIM] 17/18 Year Market Cycles
Date: Thu, 13 Jun 2002 20:02:05 -0400

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Buy and Hold vs Active Trading:

Flat markets yield group and sector rotation.Sometimes these changes are =
FAST!

Bull markets are for the "buy and hold crowd."

1934 to 1950 =3D 17 years =3D centered around DJIA 150 =3D flat =E8 =
required active trading

1951 to 1966 =3D 15 years =3D bull market =3D buy and hold

1966 to 1982 =3D 16 years =3D DJIA 1000 =3D flat =3D active investing=20

1982 to 1999 =3D 18 years =3D bull market =3D buy and hold

2000 to Nov 2001 and continuing =3D 2 years ++ =3D flat (DJIA) =3D =
active trading required (bear in NASD &S&P500)


1902 to 1921 =3D 19 years =3D flat =3D 0% =3D bear market

1921 to 1929 =3D 8 years =3D 25% =3D roaring twenties =3D bull market

1929 to 1949 =3D 20 years =3D 0.9% =3D depression =3D bear market

1949 to 1966 =3D 17 years =3D 14% =3D post WW-II, Korean War =3D bull =
market

1966 to 1982 =3D 16 years =3D -1.4% =3D VietNam war =3D bear market

1982 to 1999 =3D 17 years =3D 14.9% =3D internet era =3D bull market

S&P500 1982 to 2000 =3D +1108%

High tech 1982 to 2000 =3D +2666%

Semiconductors and telecoms were <1% of GDP in 1982, but 8% in 1999.


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<DIV><FONT size=3D2><U><FONT size=3D5>
<P>Buy and Hold vs Active Trading:</P></U></FONT><FONT size=3D4>
<P>Flat markets yield group and sector rotation.Sometimes these changes =
are=20
FAST!</P>
<P>Bull markets are for the "buy and hold crowd."</P>
<P>1934 to 1950 =3D 17 years =3D centered around DJIA 150 =3D flat <FONT =

face=3DWingdings>=E8</FONT> required active trading</P>
<P>1951 to 1966 =3D 15 years =3D bull market =3D buy and hold</P>
<P>1966 to 1982 =3D 16 years =3D DJIA 1000 =3D flat =3D active investing =
</P>
<P>1982 to 1999 =3D 18 years =3D bull market =3D buy and hold</P>
<P>2000 to Nov 2001 and continuing =3D 2 years ++ =3D flat =
(DJIA)&nbsp;=3D active=20
trading required (bear in NASD &amp;S&amp;P500)</P>
<P></P>
<P>1902 to 1921 =3D 19 years =3D flat =3D 0% =3D bear market</P>
<P>1921 to 1929 =3D 8 years =3D 25% =3D roaring twenties =3D bull =
market</P>
<P>1929 to 1949 =3D 20 years =3D 0.9% =3D depression =3D bear market</P>
<P>1949 to 1966 =3D 17 years =3D 14% =3D post WW-II, Korean War =3D bull =
market</P>
<P>1966 to 1982 =3D 16 years =3D -1.4% =3D VietNam war =3D bear =
market</P>
<P>1982 to 1999 =3D 17 years =3D 14.9% =3D internet era =3D bull =
market</P>
<P>S&amp;P500 1982 to 2000 =3D +1108%</P>
<P>High tech 1982 to 2000 =3D +2666%</P>
<P>Semiconductors and telecoms were &lt;1% of GDP in 1982, but 8% in=20
1999.</P></FONT></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

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