Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Kelly Short" <kelly.short@neoris.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" History
Date: Fri, 14 Jun 2002 09:00:19 -0500
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Group,
=20
When I posed the "M" History question yesterday I was simply seeking =
information, but apparently I began a full raging debate. (Or maybe no =
one wants to focus on the daily market movements right now) I am pleased =
to see that everyone in the group feels free to share their insights, =
resources, and conjectures. Thank you everyone for sending me links to =
online resources. Winston- your breakdown of the past century was =
extremely interesting- thank you for sharing it with the group. Fanus =
and Charley- you both bring up good points and if the two of you ever =
decide to duke it out in person please let me know in advance- I'd like =
to put some money on squares. As for the single digit debate- so far =
we've established that 1%, 2%, 3%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 7%, 8% and 9% are indeed =
single digits- but how about 0%?
=20
Well- it's Friday and the market is already down 172 points by 9:00am. =
My watch portfolio has checked out and left for Vegas. I think I'll just =
go download some pirated music. Have a great weekend everyone!
=20
Kelly
- -----Original Message-----
From: Cefaloni, John L Jr. [AMSTA-AR-WEA] =
[mailto:john.cefaloni@us.army.mil]
Sent: Friday, June 14, 2002 7:39 AM
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" History
Uhhh, so are 1%, 2%, 3%, 4%, 6%, 7%, 8% and 9%.
- -----Original Message-----
From: Dan Forant [mailto:dforant1@nycap.rr.com]
Sent: Friday, June 14, 2002 8:01 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" History
Ummm, 5% is a single digit
- ----- Original Message -----=20
From: Hill, <mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com> Ernie=20
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=20
Sent: Thursday, June 13, 2002 10:13 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" History
I believe what he said was single digit growth.
=20
E
=20
- -----Original Message-----
From: Dan Forant [mailto:dforant1@nycap.rr.com]=20
Sent: Thursday, June 13, 2002 8:24 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" History
=20
Didn't Buffer also predict just 5% market growth for years to come??=20
=20
DanF
- ----- Original Message -----=20
From: Hill, <mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com> Ernie=20
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=20
Sent: Thursday, June 13, 2002 12:59 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" History
=20
I don't have a resource to contribute at this time but, I have seen two =
interviews lately on CNBC one with Art Cashin (an "experienced" floor =
trader) and the other with Warren Buffet. Both of these men made =
reference to a 17.6 year cycle and point out that the major bull market =
that ended in 2000 began in 1983.
=20
They both expect the next 17.6 years to be lean by comparison. Mr. =
buffet even went on to talk about how the market has performed all the =
way back to 1929, and pointed out the influence of this cycle and how =
the market was affected by it despite how the economy was performing.
=20
Unfortunately I did not have my full attention focused on either =
interview so I missed much of what was said about specific time periods =
and how the market related to the economy during those time periods.
=20
However, what I did hear did not sound very encouraging for the next 15 =
years!
=20
E=20
=20
- -----Original Message-----
From: Kelly Short [mailto:kelly.short@neoris.com]=20
Sent: Thursday, June 13, 2002 10:46 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: [CANSLIM] "M" History
=20
Since "M" is not being nice- I have focused my attention in the =
short-term on "M's" history over the past 100 - 150 years to try to =
better understand what makes this machine tick. I have found a couple of =
resources that cover this topic, provide timelines, etc. but would =
appreciate any known quality resources the group has used in the past =
for such purposes.=20
=20
Kelly Short
=20
Business Development Manager
Neoris, Inc.
(817) 731-0995
mailto:kelly.short@neoris.com
http://www.neoris.com
=20
=20
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<DIV><SPAN class=3D856234713-14062002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2>Group,</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D856234713-14062002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D856234713-14062002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2>When I=20
posed the "M" History question yesterday I was simply seeking =
information, but=20
apparently I began a full raging debate. (Or maybe no one wants to focus =
on the=20
daily market movements right now) I am pleased to see that everyone in =
the group=20
feels free to share their insights, resources, and conjectures. Thank =
you=20
everyone for sending me links to online resources. Winston- your =
breakdown of=20
the past century was extremely interesting- thank you for sharing it =
with the=20
group. Fanus and Charley- you both bring up good points and if the two =
of you=20
ever decide to duke it out in person please let me know in advance- I'd =
like to=20
put some money on squares. As for the single digit debate- so far we've=20
established that 1%, 2%, 3%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 7%, 8% and 9% are indeed single =
digits-=20
but how about 0%?</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D856234713-14062002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D856234713-14062002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2>Well-=20
it's Friday and the market is already down 172 points by 9:00am. My =
watch=20
portfolio has checked out and left for Vegas. I think I'll just go =
download some=20
pirated music. Have a great weekend everyone!</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D856234713-14062002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D856234713-14062002><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2>Kelly</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr align=3Dleft><FONT =
face=3DTahoma=20
size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> Cefaloni, John L =
Jr.=20
[AMSTA-AR-WEA] [mailto:john.cefaloni@us.army.mil]<BR><B>Sent:</B> =
Friday, June=20
14, 2002 7:39 AM<BR><B>To:</B> =
'canslim@lists.xmission.com'<BR><B>Subject:</B>=20
RE: [CANSLIM] "M" History<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D400323712-14062002><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#0000ff=20
size=3D2>Uhhh, so are 1%, 2%, 3%, 4%, 6%, 7%, 8% and =
9%.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr align=3Dleft><FONT =
face=3DTahoma=20
size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> Dan Forant=20
[mailto:dforant1@nycap.rr.com]<BR><B>Sent:</B> Friday, June 14, 2002 =
8:01=20
AM<BR><B>To:</B> canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: =
[CANSLIM]=20
"M" History<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Ummm, 5% is a single =
digit</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3DErnie.Hill@ElPaso.com =
href=3D"mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com">Hill,=20
Ernie</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:'canslim@lists.xmission.com'">'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=
</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, June 13, =
2002 10:13=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] "M"=20
History</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV class=3DSection1>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">I =
believe what he=20
said was single digit growth.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">E<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT =
face=3DTahoma=20
size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Tahoma">-----Original=20
Message-----<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: =
bold">From:</SPAN></B> Dan=20
Forant [mailto:dforant1@nycap.rr.com] <BR><B><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent:</SPAN></B> =
</SPAN></FONT><st1:date=20
Year=3D"2002" Day=3D"13" Month=3D"6"><FONT face=3DTahoma =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">Thursday, June 13,=20
2002</SPAN></FONT></st1:date><FONT face=3DTahoma size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma"> =
</SPAN></FONT><st1:time=20
Minute=3D"24" Hour=3D"20"><FONT face=3DTahoma size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">8:24=20
PM</SPAN></FONT></st1:time><FONT face=3DTahoma size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma"><BR><B><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">To:</SPAN></B> <A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
<BR><B><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject:</SPAN></B> Re: [CANSLIM] "M"=20
History</SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT =
face=3D"Times New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">Didn't Buffer=20
also predict just 5% market growth for years to come??=20
</SPAN></FONT><o:p></o:p></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT =
face=3D"Times New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">DanF</SPAN></FONT><o:p></o:p></P></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; =
BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN: =
5pt 0in 5pt 3.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: black 1.5pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 0in; =
BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none">
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">----- Original=20
Message ----- <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV style=3D"font-color: black">
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><B><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">From:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT=20
face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; =
FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> <A=20
title=3DErnie.Hill@ElPaso.com =
href=3D"mailto:Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com">Hill,=20
Ernie</A> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><B><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">To:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT=20
face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; =
FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:'canslim@lists.xmission.com'">'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=
</A>=20
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><B><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">Sent:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT=20
face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; =
FONT-FAMILY: Arial">=20
</SPAN></FONT><st1:date Year=3D"2002" Day=3D"13" =
Month=3D"6"><FONT face=3DArial=20
size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">Thursday, June=20
13, 2002</SPAN></FONT></st1:date><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> =
</SPAN></FONT><st1:time=20
Minute=3D"59" Hour=3D"12"><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">12:59=20
PM</SPAN></FONT></st1:time><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><B><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">Subject:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT=20
face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; =
FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> RE:=20
[CANSLIM] "M" History<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT=20
face=3D"Times New Roman" size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT=20
face=3D"Courier New" size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt">I =
don't have a=20
resource to contribute at this time but, I have seen two =
interviews=20
lately on CNBC one with Art Cashin (an "experienced" floor =
trader) and=20
the other with Warren Buffet. Both of these men made reference =
to a 17.6=20
year cycle and point out that the major bull market that ended =
in 2000=20
began in 1983.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT=20
face=3D"Courier New" size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT=20
face=3D"Courier New" size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
10pt">They both expect=20
the next 17.6 years to be lean by comparison. Mr. buffet even =
went on to=20
talk about how the market has performed all the way back to =
1929, and=20
pointed out the influence of this cycle and how the market was =
affected=20
by it despite how the economy was=20
performing.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT=20
face=3D"Courier New" size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT=20
face=3D"Courier New" size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
10pt">Unfortunately I=20
did not have my full attention focused on either interview so I =
missed=20
much of what was said about specific time periods and how the =
market=20
related to the economy during those time=20
periods.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT=20
face=3D"Courier New" size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT=20
face=3D"Courier New" size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
10pt">However, what I=20
did hear did not sound very encouraging for the next 15=20
years!<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT=20
face=3D"Courier New" size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT=20
face=3D"Courier New" size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt">E=20
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT=20
face=3D"Courier New" size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT=20
face=3D"Courier New" size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
10pt">-----Original=20
Message-----<BR>From: Kelly Short =
[mailto:kelly.short@neoris.com]=20
<BR>Sent: Thursday, June 13, 2002 10:46 AM<BR>To:=20
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR>Subject: [CANSLIM] "M"=20
History<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT=20
face=3D"Courier New" size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT=20
face=3D"Courier New" size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
10pt">Since "M" is not=20
being nice- I have focused my attention in the short-term on =
"M's"=20
history over the past 100 - 150 years to try to better =
understand what=20
makes this machine tick. I have found a couple of resources that =
cover=20
this topic, provide timelines, etc. but would appreciate any =
known=20
quality resources the group has used in the past for such =
purposes.=20
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT=20
face=3D"Courier New" size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT=20
face=3D"Courier New" size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
10pt">Kelly=20
Short<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT=20
face=3D"Courier New" size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT=20
face=3D"Courier New" size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
10pt">Business=20
Development Manager<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT=20
face=3D"Courier New" size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
10pt">Neoris,=20
Inc.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT=20
face=3D"Courier New" size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
10pt">(817)=20
731-0995<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT=20
face=3D"Courier New" size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
10pt">mailto:kelly.short@neoris.com<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoPlainText style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT=20
face=3D"Courier New" size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
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