[CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview

From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sat, 15 Jun 2002 10:39:25 -0400
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M
What is there to say? Fourth week in a row that the three major indexes =
closed down for the week, losing another 1.2% on the DOW and 2% on =
NASDAQ and S&P500. Russell did even worse, down another 2.43%. The often =
predicted test of the September lows appear to be upon us. Technical =
support levels continue to collapse. #@$!#@^&%@. =
Aaaarrrrrgggghhhhhh!!!!! This is no fun anymore. Naz 100 traded below =
the Sept lows during the week, altho did manage to close above that on =
Friday. Volume was heavier than average on the DOW, NYSE Composite, =
S&P500, and the DJ Utilities (which closed up for the week, another =
defensive signal).

- -------------------------------------------------------------------------=
- -------

ECONOMICS
Retail sales dropped 0.9%, partially due to cold weather. Core rate =
(without autos) dropped 0.4%. Expectations were for a 0.2% drop overall =
and a core rate up 0.3%. Consumer spending, which is a critical =
component of the economy and recovery from recession, grew 3.2% in the =
first quarter and is expected to only grow 1.5% in the current quarter. =
Discount retailers, such as WMT, did well however, suggesting that =
better pricing was as much a factor as cold weather.

PPI (Producer Price Index) fell 0.4%, and was unchanged on the core =
rate. Expectations were for both to rise 0.1%. Inflation remains a "no =
show", and continues to confirm no action by the Feds on raising =
interest rates.

Consumer debt service rose to 7.93% of disposable income during the 4th =
quarter of 2001, highest rate since 3rd quarter 1987. Percentage going =
to mortgage payments also rose, but so did savings rates, to one of the =
highest levels in history.

Consumer sentiment - Univ. of Michigan's index fell to 90.8, down from =
96.9 in May, surprising experts who expected only a slight drop to 96.6. =
Expectations also dropped, to 86.2 from 92.7 as did current economic =
conditions expectations, down to 97.9 from 103.5.

Industrial - production rose 0.2%, capacity utilization rose to 75.5% =
from 75.4% in April, both below expectations of 0.4% and 75.7%. In =
April, business inventories fell another 0.2%, matching expectations, =
while sales rose 1.8%, sending the ratio of inventory to sales to 1.35, =
lowest ever on record.

A Reuters poll showed that 12 of 22 economists now think the Feds will =
not raise rates until November at the earliest, and there is even some =
talk of the Feds cutting rates one more time (I don't believe there will =
be a rate cut, but do think we may go the entire year without a rate =
hike).

- -------------------------------------------------------------------------=
- -------

WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES
As always, I will mention specific basing formations, such as c&h, =
double bottoms, or non-CANSLIM ones like LLUR (Lower Left Upper Right) =
or flat line bases (marked as Bx where x indicates the number of weeks =
IMO). Most stocks in this list will have both RS and EPS of 80 or =
better, and be close to their 12 month high. I try to glance at the =
earnings forecast, and eliminate any less than 20% for this year and =
next, but do no other due diligence. I exclude any stocks under any form =
of merger / acquisition.=20

The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend continued to slide =
further this past week. Daily lists were not even a page long, and =
little of interest. The across the board slide in all indexes hurt a lot =
of otherwise good looking charts.

ABC - held up well last week
ABCW - B6
AMSG - B6
AZO - high handle forming on the cup, volume declining
CECO - B8, volume down
ENR - young LLUR? weak earnings next year
ERES - another possible LLUR, good earnings, consolidating recent gains
FNLY - nice B5, fairly tight, volume down last week
HOTT - volatile, but potential
HTRN - interesting chart, small cap, good forecasts
HUG - nice base forming at 40
KFT - surprising growth for a big cap, big name, nice chart in turbulent =
times
LION - nice base failing, but closed at high end of range on Friday and =
almost back to base
OVRL - B5 below the high, lot of insider selling lately, owned, in my VR =
Fund
PETM - LLUR but getting volatile
PFG - young LLUR
ROST - LLUR
SSNC - nice B8, small cap, in my VR Fund
WSH - LLUR

Happy Hunting, and good luck


Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: TexWorley

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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>M</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>What is there to say? Fourth week in a row that =
the three=20
major indexes closed down for the week, losing another 1.2% on the DOW =
and 2% on=20
NASDAQ and S&amp;P500. Russell did even worse, down another 2.43%. The =
often=20
predicted test of the September lows appear to be upon us. Technical =
support=20
levels continue to collapse. <A href=3D"mailto:#@$!#@^&amp;%"><FONT=20
color=3D#ff0000>#@$!#@^&amp;%</FONT></A><FONT color=3D#ff0000>@.</FONT> =
<FONT=20
color=3D#0000ff>Aaaarrrrrgggghhhhhh!!!!!</FONT> This is no fun anymore. =
Naz 100=20
traded below the Sept lows during the week, altho did manage to close =
above that=20
on Friday. Volume was heavier than average on the DOW,&nbsp;NYSE =
Composite,=20
S&amp;P500, and the DJ Utilities (which closed up for the week, another=20
defensive signal).</DIV>
<DIV>
<HR>
</DIV>
<DIV><STRONG>ECONOMICS</STRONG></DIV>
<DIV>Retail sales dropped 0.9%, partially due to cold weather. Core rate =

(without autos) dropped 0.4%. Expectations were for a 0.2% drop overall =
and a=20
core rate up 0.3%. Consumer spending, which is a critical component of =
the=20
economy and recovery from recession, grew 3.2% in the first quarter and =
is=20
expected to only grow 1.5% in the current quarter. Discount retailers, =
such as=20
WMT, did well however, suggesting that better pricing was as much a =
factor as=20
cold weather.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>PPI (Producer Price Index) fell 0.4%, and was unchanged on the core =
rate.=20
Expectations were for both to rise 0.1%. Inflation remains a "no show", =
and=20
continues to confirm no action by the Feds on raising interest =
rates.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Consumer debt service rose to 7.93% of disposable income during the =
4th=20
quarter of 2001, highest rate since 3rd quarter 1987. Percentage going =
to=20
mortgage payments also rose, but so did savings rates, to one of the =
highest=20
levels in history.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Consumer sentiment - Univ. of Michigan's index fell to 90.8, down =
from 96.9=20
in May, surprising experts who expected only a slight drop to 96.6. =
Expectations=20
also dropped, to 86.2 from 92.7 as did current economic conditions =
expectations,=20
down to 97.9 from 103.5.</DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Industrial - production rose 0.2%, capacity =
utilization=20
rose to 75.5% from 75.4% in April, both below expectations of 0.4% and =
75.7%. In=20
April, business inventories fell another 0.2%, matching expectations, =
while=20
sales rose 1.8%, sending the ratio of inventory to sales to 1.35, lowest =
ever on=20
record.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>A Reuters poll showed that 12 of 22 economists =
now think=20
the Feds will not raise rates until November at the earliest, and there =
is even=20
some talk of the Feds cutting rates one more time (I don't believe there =
will be=20
a rate cut, but do think we may go the entire year without a rate =
hike).</DIV>
<DIV>
<HR>
</DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV><STRONG>WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES</STRONG></DIV>
<DIV>As always, I will mention specific basing formations, such as =
c&amp;h,=20
double bottoms, or non-CANSLIM ones like LLUR (Lower Left Upper Right) =
or flat=20
line bases (marked as Bx where x indicates the number of weeks IMO). =
Most stocks=20
in this list will have both RS and EPS of 80 or better, and be close to =
their 12=20
month high. I try to glance at the earnings forecast, and eliminate any =
less=20
than 20% for this year and next, but do no other due diligence. I =
exclude any=20
stocks under any form of merger / acquisition.=20
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend&nbsp;continued =
to=20
slide further this past week. Daily lists were not even a page long, and =
little=20
of interest. The across the board slide in all indexes hurt a lot of =
otherwise=20
good looking charts.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>ABC - held up well last week</DIV>
<DIV>ABCW - B6</DIV>
<DIV>AMSG - B6</DIV>
<DIV>AZO - high handle forming on the cup, volume declining</DIV>
<DIV>CECO - B8, volume down</DIV>
<DIV>ENR - young LLUR? weak earnings next year</DIV>
<DIV>ERES - another possible LLUR, good earnings, consolidating recent=20
gains</DIV>
<DIV>FNLY - nice B5, fairly tight, volume down last week</DIV>
<DIV>HOTT - volatile, but potential</DIV>
<DIV>HTRN - interesting chart, small cap, good forecasts</DIV>
<DIV>HUG - nice base forming at 40</DIV>
<DIV>KFT - surprising growth for a big cap, big name, nice chart in =
turbulent=20
times</DIV>
<DIV>LION - nice base failing, but closed at high end of range on Friday =
and=20
almost back to base</DIV>
<DIV>OVRL - B5 below the high, lot of insider selling lately, owned, in =
my VR=20
Fund</DIV>
<DIV>PETM - LLUR but getting volatile</DIV>
<DIV>PFG - young LLUR</DIV>
<DIV>ROST - LLUR</DIV></DIV></DIV>
<DIV>SSNC - nice B8, small cap, in my VR Fund</DIV>
<DIV>WSH - LLUR</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Happy Hunting, and good luck</DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT><IMG alt=3D"" hspace=3D0=20
src=3D"cid:01bf01c2147a$7284d9f0$6501a8c0@TOMSBOX" align=3Dbaseline =
border=3D0></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR></FONT><A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net"><FONT=20
face=3DArial>stkguru@bellsouth.net</FONT></A><BR><FONT face=3DArial>AIM: =

TexWorley</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

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