Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Hill, Ernie" <Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] FW: [RT] Dow
Date: Mon, 17 Jun 2002 09:11:17 -0500
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Jeff forwarded this post for me to the group.
If the 17-18 year cycle holds true, then the post and charts presented by
Mr. Pylypuk provide a valid interpretation of what may lie ahead. Not a
pretty picture, but something we need to be prepared to deal with.
I am getting depressed again. I think I will have something to eat.
E
- -----Original Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie
Sent: Monday, June 17, 2002 7:27 AM
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'
Subject: [CANSLIM] FW: [RT] Dow
- -----Original Message-----
From: Tony Pylypuk [mailto:tpylypuk@niagara.com]
Sent: Monday, June 17, 2002 6:00 AM
To: RealTraders
Cc: Jim Spatz; Debbie Sevenpifer; Anthony W. Pylypuk; Mark Newman; Doug
Frazer; John D. Finley; Spencer Dane; Catherine Cornell; Janet Allan
Subject: [RT] Dow
Attached are three charts of the Dow.
Figures 1 and 2 present the Dow since 1900 and 1977, respectively.
Of more immediate interest is Figure 3. It shows the Bear Channel which
commenced on January 14, 2001, and the intersection of that channel with the
longer term Bull Channel in existence since 1982.
Shortly after September 11, 2001, the lower bounds of the Bull Channel were
penetrated, before the market rallied and ran the Dow through the entire
height of the Bear Channel. Since early March 2002 the Dow has trended down
and on June 14, 2002 it plummeted to the lower bounds of the Bull Channel
before staging a strong rally. Bullish? Perhaps. Certainly a going long
for a short term trading opportunity seems indicated.
What is troubling about the longer term prospects of the bullish scenario is
that the lower bounds of the Bull Channel have now been tested twice. It is
not certain how much more testing the Bull Channel can withstand. Decisive
penetration could result in its lower limits becoming a ceiling of
impenetrable resistance. More importantly, the loss of support provided by
those lower bounds could send the market looking for support at
substantially lower levels - perhaps the mid-point of the 100 Year Channel
which presently sit somewhere around 7,500, if not the lower bounds of that
channel. Those lower bounds are presently around 2,500, a level which is
unimaginable except in the case of cataclysmic disaster of global
dimensions, but at the intersection of the lower bounds of the 100 Year
Channel with the upper bounds of the Bull Channel which may be projected to
occur in late 2014 or early 2015, the level of the Dow is a more believable,
or less incredible, 5,500.
FWIW. I remind you I am not licensed to say this for profit.
Tony Pylypuk
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<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 color=3Dblue=
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color=
:blue'>Jeff
forwarded this post for me to the group.<o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 color=3Dblue=
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color=
:blue'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font><=
/span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 color=3Dblue=
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color=
:blue'>If
the 17-18 year cycle holds true, then the post and charts presented by Mr. =
Pylypuk
provide a valid interpretation of what may lie ahead. Not a pretty picture,=
but
something we need to be prepared to deal with.<o:p></o:p></span></font></sp=
an></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 color=3Dblue=
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color=
:blue'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font><=
/span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 color=3Dblue=
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color=
:blue'>I
am getting depressed again. I think I will have something to eat.<o:p></o:p=
></span></font></span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 color=3Dblue=
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color=
:blue'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font><=
/span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 color=3Dblue=
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color=
:blue'>E</span></font></span><span
class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 color=3D"#993366" face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p=
></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle21><font size=3D2 color=3D"#99=
3366"
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font=
- -family:
Arial'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font><=
/span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack
face=3DTahoma><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:blac=
k'>-----Original
Message-----<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>From:</span></b> Hill, Ernie <br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> Monday, June 17, 2002 =
7:27
AM<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b> 'canslim@lists.xmission.=
com'<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> [CANSLIM] FW: [RT] =
Dow</span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 face=3D"Time=
s New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p><=
/o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><span class=3DEmailStyle19>=
<font
size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi=
- -font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></=
o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><span class=3DEmailStyle19>=
<font
size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi=
- -font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></=
o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack
face=3DTahoma><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:blac=
k'>-----Original
Message-----<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>From:</span></b> Tony Pylypuk
[mailto:tpylypuk@niagara.com]<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> Monday, June 17, 2002 =
6:00
AM<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b> RealTraders<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Cc:</span></b> Jim Spatz; Debbie Sevenp=
ifer;
Anthony W. Pylypuk; Mark Newman; Doug Frazer; John D. Finley; Spencer Dane;
Catherine Cornell; Janet Allan<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> [RT] Dow</span></fo=
nt><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dblack
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:black'><![if=
!supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]></span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblac=
k face=3Dtime><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:time;color:black'>Attached are three =
charts
of the Dow.</span></font><font color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso=
- -color-alt:
windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dblack
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:black'> =
;</span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblac=
k face=3Dtime><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:time;color:black'>Figures 1 and 2 pre=
sent
the Dow since 1900 and 1977, respectively.</span></font><font color=3Dblack=
><span
style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dblack
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:black'> =
;</span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblac=
k face=3Dtime><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:time;color:black'>Of more immediate
interest is Figure 3. It shows the Bear Channel which commenced=
on
January 14, 2001, and the intersection of that channel with the longer term
Bull Channel in existence since 1982.</span></font><font color=3Dblack><span
style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dblack
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:black'> =
;</span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblac=
k face=3Dtime><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:time;color:black'>Shortly after Septe=
mber
11, 2001, the lower bounds of the Bull Channel were penetrated, before the
market rallied and ran the Dow through the entire height of the Bear
Channel. Since early March 2002 the Dow has trended down and on June =
14,
2002 it plummeted to the lower bounds of the Bull Channel before staging a =
strong
rally. Bullish? Perhaps. Certainly a going long for a short term
trading opportunity seems indicated.</span></font><font color=3Dblack><span
style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dblack
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:black'> =
;</span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblac=
k face=3Dtime><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:time;color:black'>What is troubling a=
bout
the longer term prospects of the bullish scenario is that the lower bounds =
of
the Bull Channel have now been tested twice. It is not certain how much more
testing the Bull Channel can withstand. Decisive penetration could result in
its lower limits becoming a ceiling of impenetrable resistance. More
importantly, the loss of support provided by those lower bounds could send =
the market
looking for support at substantially lower levels - perhaps the mid-point of
the 100 Year Channel which presently sit somewhere around 7,500, if not the
lower bounds of that channel. Those lower bounds are presently around 2,500=
, a
level which is unimaginable except in the case of cataclysmic disaster of
global dimensions, but at the intersection of the lower bounds of the 100 Y=
ear
Channel with the upper bounds of the Bull Channel which may be projected to
occur in late 2014 or early 2015, the level of the Dow is a more believable=
, or
less incredible, 5,500. </span></font><font color=3Dblack><span
style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dblack
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:black'> =
;</span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblac=
k face=3Dtime><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:time;color:black'>FWIW. I remin=
d you
I am not licensed to say this for profit.</span></font><font color=3Dblack>=
<span
style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dblack
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:black'> =
;</span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;color:black'>Tony =
Pylypuk</span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dblack
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:black'> =
;</span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dblack
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