Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "J. Lobatto" <jlobatto@nyc.rr.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sun, 23 Jun 2002 10:01:02 -0400
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0017_01C21A9C.E1CD1750 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_0018_01C21A9C.E1CD1750" - ------=_NextPart_001_0018_01C21A9C.E1CD1750 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Tom, Thanks again for another WWW. I believe NTK is the subject of a buyout = offer. Jon ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Tom Worley=20 To: CANSLIM=20 Sent: Sunday, June 23, 2002 7:42 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview ECONOMICS Factory orders gains for April were roughly cut in half as an annual = adjustment was made to bring the data in line with the broader data from = the Annual Survey of Manufacturers. New Unemployment Claims continue the declining trend seen in past = weeks. Since the benefits duration was extended, and those whose = benefits had expired returned to refile for the extension (even tho = Labor was unable to quantify the impact), the new claims has been = steadily declining back under 400K. The four week moving average has now = also fallen under 400K. Trade Deficit in April jumped over 10% to an all time high of $35.9 = billion reflecting, among other things, a very weak dollar, and strength = in imported oil prices. Fear of a dock strike in California may have = also increased imports. Index of leading economic indicators rose 0.4% in May to 112.2 after a = 0.3% drop in April. Expectations were for only a 0.2% rise. The weakening US dollar is showing up more and more. In the past month = or so, it has dropped over 10% against the Euro. It has continued to = fall as well against the yen. Combined with the net decrease of = purchasing of US securities by foreign investors, the trend is likely to = continue and could threaten a recovery. In the 4th quarter, foreign = purchases of US stocks dropped $8 billion to $25 billion. And on US = Treasury bonds, there was a net sale of $5.7 billion compared to prior = net purchase of $27.2 billion. That is a huge swing. While the weakening = dollar, by itself, increases the value of imports and decreases the = value of exports, thus widening the Trade Deficit as well as the Current = Account, eventually it can also result in making US manufacturer's = products more price competitive, and generate new sales and demands for = US goods. Oil production in the second half of the year is likely to increase as = several non-OPEC countries (latest being Venezuela following Norway, = Russia) cease their recent cuts.=20 Good summary on the current state of the US economy can be found at http://money.cnn.com/2002/06/21/news/economy/econ_roundup/index.htm=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ----- "M" Both the DOW and the S&P 500 closed down for the week, fifth week in a = row for that, and first time in a year to be down 5 consecutive weeks. = Naz finished only 17 points off its 9/11 bottom. Either capitulation = better happen real soon, or we are in some mighty deep doo doo. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ----- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES This list is in no way intended to recommend any stocks to the group. = It is a part of my regular assessment of the health of CANSLIM's "M" = and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with = constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING (and of course = doing your own due diligence). I typically list stocks with both RS and = EPS ranking of 80 or better, and try to exclude stocks undergoing any = merger / acquisition / buyout scenario. I also exclude those stocks I = spot with earnings forecast for this year and next that are not at least = close to 20%. I do no other due diligence. The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend continued to = slide further during the past week. Daily lists were not even a page = long, and little of interest to me. The across the board slide = continuing in all indexes, including small cap growth, has hurt a lot of = otherwise good looking charts. AMZ - LLUR CECO - B8 CHS - turning into a LLUR? COCO - b/o Friday on 1.5X ADV CPS - young LLUR? ELUX - triple bottom ENR - nice chart, but weak forecast for 2003 ERES - another nice chart, clear LLUR but with strong earnings = forecast FCN - volatile LLUR FNLY - B6 HIBB - 10 week consolidation HLYW - 10 week consolidation, might be a recession/fear of terrorism = play, cheaper than the movies and safer HUG - at the pivot JJSF - another 10 week consolidation LABS - broke the pivot Thursday, volume not sufficient, former LLUR LION - B9 MCRS - 10 week handle on a nice cup?? sign of the times for c&h = formations?? MMSI - triple bottom? c&h?? NTK - broke the pivot on Friday on 8X ADV, benefiting from the = continued strong home construction market OCAS - B3 ODSY - B9 OVRL - b/o holding despite "M", owned, in my VR Fund PETM - LLUR, basing due "M"?? SCVL - broke pivot Friday on 3X ADV SSNC - Tuesday's b/o on volume holding despite "M", in my VR Fund SYPR - nice recovery last week, over 50dma and into resistance, in my = VR Fund TRI - B2 WSH - B4 Happy Hunting, Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_0018_01C21A9C.E1CD1750 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2715.400" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Tom,</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Thanks again for another WWW. I believe = NTK is=20 the subject of a buyout offer.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Jon</FONT></DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20 style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; = BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV> <DIV=20 style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: = black"><B>From:</B>=20 <A title=3Dstkguru@bellsouth.net = href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net">Tom=20 Worley</A> </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A = title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20 href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">CANSLIM</A> </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, June 23, 2002 = 7:42 AM</DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] Worley's = Weekend=20 Weeview</DIV> <DIV><BR></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT><FONT=20 face=3DArial><STRONG>ECONOMICS</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Factory orders gains for April were roughly = cut in half=20 as an annual adjustment was made to bring the data in line with the = broader=20 data from the Annual Survey of Manufacturers.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>New Unemployment Claims continue the declining = trend=20 seen in past weeks. Since the benefits duration was extended, and = those=20 whose benefits had expired returned to refile for the extension (even = tho=20 Labor was unable to quantify the impact), the new claims has been = steadily=20 declining back under 400K. The four week moving average has now also = fallen=20 under 400K.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Trade Deficit in April jumped over 10% to an = all time=20 high of $35.9 billion reflecting, among other things, a very weak = dollar, and=20 strength in imported oil prices. Fear of a dock strike in California = may have=20 also increased imports.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Index of leading economic indicators rose 0.4% = in May to=20 112.2 after a 0.3% drop in April. Expectations were for only a 0.2%=20 rise.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The weakening US dollar is showing up more and = more. In=20 the past month or so, it has dropped over 10% against the Euro. It has = continued to fall as well against the yen. Combined with the net = decrease of=20 purchasing of US securities by foreign investors, the trend is likely = to=20 continue and could threaten a recovery. In the 4th quarter, foreign = purchases=20 of US stocks dropped $8 billion to $25 billion. And on US Treasury = bonds,=20 there was a net sale of $5.7 billion compared to prior net purchase of = $27.2=20 billion. That is a huge swing. While the weakening dollar, by itself,=20 increases the value of imports and decreases the value of exports, = thus=20 widening the Trade Deficit as well as the Current Account, eventually = it can=20 also result in making US manufacturer's products more price = competitive, and=20 generate new sales and demands for US goods.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Oil production in the second half of the year = is likely=20 to increase as several non-OPEC countries (latest being Venezuela = following=20 Norway, Russia) cease their recent cuts. </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Good summary on the current state of the US = economy can=20 be found at</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><A=20 = href=3D"http://money.cnn.com/2002/06/21/news/economy/econ_roundup/index.h= tm">http://money.cnn.com/2002/06/21/news/economy/econ_roundup/index.htm</= A>=20 <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>"M"</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Both the DOW and the S&P 500 closed down = for the=20 week, fifth week in a row for that, and first time in a year to be = down 5=20 consecutive weeks. Naz finished only 17 points off its 9/11 bottom. = Either=20 capitulation better happen real soon, or we are in some mighty deep = doo=20 doo.</DIV> <DIV> <HR> </DIV></FONT> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>WORLEY'S WATCHLIST=20 WANNABES</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>This list is in no way intended to recommend = any stocks=20 to the group. It is a part of my regular assessment of the health of = CANSLIM's=20 "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks = with=20 constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING (and of course = doing=20 your own due diligence). I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS = ranking=20 of 80 or better, and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / = acquisition=20 / buyout scenario. I also exclude those stocks I spot with earnings = forecast=20 for this year and next that are not at least close to 20%. I do no = other due=20 diligence.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The population of stocks I am reviewing this = weekend=20 continued to slide further during the past week. Daily lists were not = even a=20 page long, and little of interest to me. The across the board slide = continuing=20 in all indexes, including small cap growth, has hurt a lot of = otherwise good=20 looking charts.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>AMZ - LLUR</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>CECO - B8</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>CHS - turning into a LLUR?</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>COCO - b/o Friday on 1.5X ADV</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>CPS - young LLUR?</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ELUX - triple bottom</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ENR - nice chart, but weak forecast for=20 2003</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ERES - another nice chart, clear LLUR but with = strong=20 earnings forecast</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>FCN - volatile LLUR</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>FNLY - B6</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>HIBB - 10 week consolidation</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>HLYW - 10 week consolidation, might be a = recession/fear=20 of terrorism play, cheaper than the movies and safer</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>HUG - at the pivot</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>JJSF - another 10 week = consolidation</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>LABS - broke the pivot Thursday, volume not = sufficient,=20 former LLUR</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>LION - B9</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>MCRS - 10 week handle on a nice cup?? sign of = the times=20 for c&h formations??</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>MMSI - triple bottom? c&h??</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>NTK - broke the pivot on Friday on 8X ADV, = benefiting=20 from the continued strong home construction market</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>OCAS - B3</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ODSY - B9</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>OVRL - b/o holding despite "M", owned, in my = VR=20 Fund</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>PETM - LLUR, basing due "M"??</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>SCVL - broke pivot Friday on 3X = ADV</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>SSNC - Tuesday's b/o on volume holding despite = "M", in=20 my VR Fund</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>SYPR - nice recovery last week, over 50dma and = into=20 resistance, in my VR Fund</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>TRI - B2</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>WSH - B4</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Happy Hunting,</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><IMG alt=3D"" hspace=3D0=20 src=3D"cid:001601c21abe$68cf7510$76903d42@Laptop" align=3Dbaseline=20 border=3D0></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR></FONT><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net"><FONT=20 face=3DArial>stkguru@bellsouth.net</FONT></A><BR><FONT = face=3DArial>AIM:=20 TexWorley</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_001_0018_01C21A9C.E1CD1750-- - ------=_NextPart_000_0017_01C21A9C.E1CD1750 Content-Type: image/gif; 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