Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Hill, Ernie" <Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M....Look Out Below
Date: Sun, 23 Jun 2002 13:17:19 -0500
Previous Article (by Date): [CANSLIM] LLUR pattern "Tom Worley"
Articles sorted by: [Date]
[Author]
[Subject]
This message is in MIME format. Since your mail reader does not understand
this format, some or all of this message may not be legible.
- ------_=_NextPart_001_01C21AE2.3626F8D0
Content-Type: text/plain
Kent thanks for the vote of confidence.
As for Prechter he has been predicting the mother of all bear markets since
1987. At least he has been mostly right now for the past two years. I agree
with his philosophy, but the massive psychological social "wave" that he is
expecting is very difficult to pin down as to when it may happen. The period
of time with which he is working when making this forecast is of grand super
cycle degree. Which he claims began in 1789 (ref. "Elliott Wave Principal"
by Frost and Prechter page 130). We could easily have another huge bull
market spanning several years before a correction of that magnitude began
and it would still fit into the frame work of the Elliott Wave Principle
(EWT).
I however, am becoming more and more convinced that the 17-19 year cycle has
merit. Whether this cycle manifests itself as basically flat over the course
of that period of time or whether it will be more of a devastating decline
will likely be determined by current events in the world. In particular the
course of war during this time period. The detonation of a nuclear device in
a major city of the USA could very well cause the type of collapse that
Prechter believes is coming.
Anyway, I am much better at forecasting the short term moves in the market
than I am the longer term moves. Having said that I am going to step out on
a limb and say that I expect we will take out the September lows sometime
this year and I think that March of next year is the earliest time frame
from which we can begin to look for a place from which to launch a
sustainable rally.
E
- -----Original Message-----
From: Kent Norman [mailto:kent_norman@yahoo.com]
Sent: Saturday, June 22, 2002 2:22 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M....Look Out Below
Perhaps... But Ernie has been impressive!
Kent Norman
- --- Patrick Wahl <pjwahl@attbi.com> wrote:
> Here is a great quote from that article -
>
>
> Without intending to cast aspersions, it seems that these big-wave
> theories
> seem to appeal more to well-meaning eggheads than to demonstrably
> successful investors. World-altering economic and psycho-social
> patterns are
> easier to observe in retrospect than to forecast. The mathematical
> certainty
> that appears to attend cyclical waves in the past tend to dissolve
> into uncertain
> subjectivity in the present.
>
>
>
> On 22 Jun 2002 at 6:33, Dan Forant wrote:
>
> > http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/p24996.asp?special=msn
> >
>
>
>
> -
> -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
> -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
> -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
=====
Opportunities always look bigger going than coming.
__________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Yahoo! - Official partner of 2002 FIFA World Cup
http://fifaworldcup.yahoo.com
- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
******************************************************************
This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso
Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the
use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed.
If you have received this email in error please notify the
sender.
******************************************************************
- ------_=_NextPart_001_01C21AE2.3626F8D0
Content-Type: text/html
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
<html xmlns:o=3D"urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" xmlns:w=3D"urn:sc=
hemas-microsoft-com:office:word" xmlns:st1=3D"urn:schemas-microsoft-com:off=
ice:smarttags" xmlns=3D"http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40">
<head>
<META HTTP-EQUIV=3D"Content-Type" CONTENT=3D"text/html; charset=3DUS-ASCII">
<meta name=3DProgId content=3DWord.Document>
<meta name=3DGenerator content=3D"Microsoft Word 10">
<meta name=3DOriginator content=3D"Microsoft Word 10">
<link rel=3DFile-List href=3D"cid:filelist.xml@01C21AB8.4AD45810">
<o:SmartTagType namespaceuri=3D"urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"
name=3D"country-region"/>
<o:SmartTagType namespaceuri=3D"urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"
name=3D"place"/>
<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
<o:DoNotRelyOnCSS/>
</o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:WordDocument>
<w:View>Normal</w:View>
<w:SpellingState>Clean</w:SpellingState>
<w:GrammarState>Clean</w:GrammarState>
<w:DocumentKind>DocumentEmail</w:DocumentKind>
<w:EnvelopeVis/>
<w:Compatibility>
<w:BreakWrappedTables/>
<w:SnapToGridInCell/>
<w:WrapTextWithPunct/>
<w:UseAsianBreakRules/>
</w:Compatibility>
<w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel>
</w:WordDocument>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if !mso]>
<style>
st1\:*{behavior:url(#default#ieooui) }
</style>
<![endif]-->
<style>
<!--
/* Style Definitions */
p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal
{mso-style-parent:"";
margin:0in;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";}
a:link, span.MsoHyperlink
{color:blue;
text-decoration:underline;
text-underline:single;}
a:visited, span.MsoHyperlinkFollowed
{color:purple;
text-decoration:underline;
text-underline:single;}
p.MsoPlainText, li.MsoPlainText, div.MsoPlainText
{margin:0in;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New";
mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";}
span.SpellE
{mso-style-name:"";
mso-spl-e:yes;}
span.GramE
{mso-style-name:"";
mso-gram-e:yes;}
@page Section1
{size:8.5in 11.0in;
margin:1.0in 77.95pt 1.0in 77.95pt;
mso-header-margin:.5in;
mso-footer-margin:.5in;
mso-paper-source:0;}
div.Section1
{page:Section1;}
- -->
</style>
<!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
/* Style Definitions */=20
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0in;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman";}
</style>
<![endif]-->
</head>
<body lang=3DEN-US link=3Dblue vlink=3Dpurple style=3D'tab-interval:.5in'>
<div class=3DSection1>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><st1:country-region><st1:place><font size=3D2 color=
=3Dblue
face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;color:blue'>Kent</sp=
an></font></st1:place></st1:country-region><font
color=3Dblue><span style=3D'color:blue'> thanks for the vote of confidence.=
<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 color=3Dblue face=3D"Courier New"><s=
pan
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;color:blue'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 color=3Dblue face=3D"Courier New"><s=
pan
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;color:blue'>As for Prechter he has been predictin=
g the
mother of all bear markets since 1987. At least he has been mostly right now
for the past two years. I agree with his philosophy, but the massive psycho=
logical
social "wave" that he is expecting is very difficult to pin down =
as
to when it may happen. The period of time with which he is working when mak=
ing
this forecast is of grand super cycle degree. Which he claims began in 1789
(ref. "Elliott Wave Principal" by Frost and Prechter page 130). We
could easily have another huge bull market spanning several years before a
correction of that magnitude began and it would still fit into the frame wo=
rk
of the Elliott Wave Principle (EWT).<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 color=3Dblue face=3D"Courier New"><s=
pan
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;color:blue'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 color=3Dblue face=3D"Courier New"><s=
pan
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;color:blue'>I however, am becoming more and more =
convinced
that the 17-19 year cycle has merit. Whether this cycle manifests itself as
basically flat over the course of that period of time or whether it will be
more of a devastating decline will likely be determined by current events in
the world. <span class=3DGramE>In particular the course of war during this =
time
period.</span> The detonation of a nuclear device in a major city of the </=
span></font><st1:country-region><st1:place><font
color=3Dblue><span style=3D'color:blue'>USA</span></font></st1:place></st=
1:country-region><font
color=3Dblue><span style=3D'color:blue'> could very well cause the type of =
collapse
that Prechter believes is coming.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 color=3Dblue face=3D"Courier New"><s=
pan
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;color:blue'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 color=3Dblue face=3D"Courier New"><s=
pan
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;color:blue'>Anyway, I am much better at forecasti=
ng the
short term moves in the market than I am the longer term moves. Having said
that I am going to step out on a limb and say that I expect we will take out
the September lows sometime this year and I think that March of next year is
the earliest time frame from which we can begin to look for a place from wh=
ich to
launch a sustainable rally.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 color=3Dblue face=3D"Courier New"><s=
pan
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;color:blue'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 color=3Dblue face=3D"Courier New"><s=
pan
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;color:blue'>E<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>-----Original Message-----<br>
From: Kent Norman [mailto:kent_norman@yahoo.com] <br>
Sent: Saturday, June 22, 2002 2:22 PM<br>
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com<br>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M....Look Out Below<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>Perhaps... But Ernie has been impressive!<o:p></o:p></span></font><=
/p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>Kent Norman<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>--- Patrick Wahl <pjwahl@attbi.com> wrote:<o:p></o:p></span><=
/font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>> Here is a great quote from that article -<o:p></o:p></span></f=
ont></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>> Without intending to cast aspersions, it seems that these big-=
wave<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>> theories <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>> seem to appeal more to well-meaning eggheads than to demonstra=
bly <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>> successful investors. World-altering economic and psycho-socia=
l<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>> patterns are <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>> easier to observe in retrospect than to forecast. The mathemat=
ical<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>> certainty <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>> that appears to attend cyclical waves in the past tend to diss=
olve<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>> into uncertain <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>> subjectivity in the present.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>> On 22 Jun 2002 at 6:33, Dan Forant wrote:<o:p></o:p></span></f=
ont></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>> > http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/p24996.asp?special=3D=
msn<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>> > <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>> -<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>> -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email
"majordomo@xmission.com"<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>> -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<o:p=
></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>> -"unsubscribe canslim".<span
style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>Do not use quotes in your email.<o=
:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>Opportunities always look bigger going than coming.<o:p></o:p></spa=
n></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>__________________________________________________<o:p></o:p></span=
></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>Do You Yahoo!?<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>Yahoo! - Official partner of 2002 FIFA World Cup<o:p></o:p></span><=
/font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>http://fifaworldcup.yahoo.com<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>-<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"=
<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<o:p></o:=
p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'=
font-size:
10.0pt'>-"unsubscribe canslim".<span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'>&=
nbsp;
</span>Do not use quotes in your email.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<CODE><FONT SIZE=3D3><BR>
<BR>
******************************************************************<BR>
This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso <BR>
Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the <BR>
use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. <BR>
If you have received this email in error please notify the <BR>
sender.<BR>
******************************************************************<BR>
</FONT></CODE></body>
</html>
- ------_=_NextPart_001_01C21AE2.3626F8D0--
- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
Previous Article (by Date): [CANSLIM] LLUR pattern "Tom Worley"
Articles sorted by: [Date]
[Author]
[Subject]