Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Hill, Ernie" <Ernie.Hill@ElPaso.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] S&P index "M"
Date: Wed, 26 Jun 2002 20:25:50 -0500
Next Article (by Subject): Re: [CANSLIM] Technical Anaylsis Book? "Patrick Wahl"
Previous Article (by Subject): Re: [CANSLIM] Banks "J. Lobatto"
Articles sorted by: [Date]
[Author]
[Subject]
This message is in MIME format. Since your mail reader does not understand
this format, some or all of this message may not be legible.
- ------_=_NextPart_001_01C21D79.9261DA90
Content-Type: text/plain
From what I see, today's price action looks like the turn low I have been
expecting. A close tomorrow above today's high is the signal I usually look
for to confirm a turn.
However, trading from this turn would be very risky. The sheer strength of
this down move puts this turn in jeopardy, while from my technical
perspective this low turn is set up very well, the overwhelming negative
sentiment that is currently in the market could easily negate this set-up.
Even if today proves out to be the low of the move, the upside appears to be
very limited.
E
- -----Original Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie
Sent: Monday, June 24, 2002 9:34 PM
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] S&P index "M"
Today's price action meets all my technical criteria for the termination of
the current down move. However, I believe we have a little further to go
before the projected turn low has been made.
While today's low has occurred within the turn low time window, if today is
indeed the low it would mean that the turn came early in the window. Often
sharp moves in the direction of the dominate trend tend to terminate in the
last half of the turn window, and occasionally beyond the projected turn
window. For this reason I am not convinced that today was the end to the
current short term move down. Even if today does prove out to be the
projected turn low the market is still likely to move back down toward the
end of the current time window.
At this point any attempt to trade long would be too risky. I will wait out
the remainder of this time window before declaring a turn or projecting a
new target for the next turn high. Unless of course the market demands that
I comment sooner.
E
- -----Original Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie
Sent: Saturday, June 15, 2002 6:01 PM
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'
Subject: RE:[CANSLIM] S&P index "M"
The next significant low turn for the S&P should occur within four trading
days of 6-26 with the turn most likely happening during the last half of the
window from 6-26 to 7-2. The target price range is 965 - 958. If the turn
comes early in the window it is more likely to be in the high part of the
range and if the turn comes late in the window it is more likely to be in
the low part of the range.
E
- -----Original Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie
Sent: Tuesday, June 11, 2002 10:10 PM
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] S&P index "M"
Today's market action all but confirms that Friday was no aberration, but
was indeed a warning signal. I believe the high turn that I forecast for the
time window of 6-10 to 6-20 was made today and well short of the low target
of 1048.41. Even if the market should manage to make it up to 1048 over the
course of the next few days the risk is far greater than the potential
reward.
The primary reason that I think this short term high turn has been made is
because the S&P has closed significantly below the target range of 1034-1027
that I had forecast for the low turn that I had anticipated in my post from
5-21. Also in that post I had mentioned that there were two time windows
that the low turn I was looking for could be made. What has happened almost
always occurs when the market is in the midst of a strong trend. In this
case a down trend. The first and most likely time window for the turn
occurs, but the next high turn is made early in the window is often only one
or two days up and is very weak with the market turning below target levels.
When this happens the second time window for the turn should be expected and
the move is exaggerated. This means that the low turn I had originally
forecast to occur within four trading days of 6-4 has blown past its target
and should now occur within four trading days of 6-26. I haven't had time
yet to calculate the likely targets for this turn, but I suspect that this
down swing could challenge last Septembers lows before a meaningful move up
can be made.
I wanted to get this post out tonight to warn those of you who give weight
to my analysis. If any of you are holding on to positions expecting the S&P
to reach 1048 per my analysis, the market has spoken, it ain't likely to
happen.
E
- -----Original Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie
Sent: Sunday, June 09, 2002 4:06 PM
To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'
Subject: [CANSLIM] S&P index "M"
On Tuesday the S&P index hit a low of 1030.49 right in the middle of the
highest probability target range and on the highest probability target day.
The next day it closed above the high of the previous day, signaling that a
turn had been made. Then the very next day Thursday the market dropped again
hitting an intra-day low of 1026.91 right at the bottom of my projected
target range. All was still well and within parameters. I fully expected
Friday to close above the high for Thursday and again signal that a turn had
been made. But alas, all was not well Friday!
First the optimistic view. Sometimes these target levels can hold true based
on closing prices. This usually occurs when a market aberration causes the
target to be overrun, yet prices will still close at or near the target
levels. This could have happened Friday with the market closing at 1027.53.
If Friday was an aberration then the intra-day low of 1012.45 will hold
through the next low turn.
Now for the much grimmer forecast. If Friday was not an aberration then it
is very possible that the next turn low could break the 1012.45 level and
possibly challenge last September's lows.
At this point the picture is very muddy we will just have to sit back and
let the market tell us where it is going to go.
Assuming that Friday was indeed the low point of the current down move
(hopefully Monday will give us a confirmation signal), then we can
anticipate the next turn high to occur within four trading days of 6-14. The
most likely targets for this turn would be a .382 retracement of the last
move down which began on 5-17 at 1106.59 and ended on 6-7 at 1012.45 or a
.618 retracement of the same move. This would give us a target prices of
1048.41 for the .382 retracement and 1070.62. for the .618 retracement. Both
of these targets carry approximately the same probability rating.
In either case the next turn high will likely occur very soon and without
much strength to the upside. Sorry Duke, it's not what I was hoping for
either. For those of you who are strong optimists there is a low probability
target of 1104.60 which if it occurs it would be late in the turn window.
Of course if the market breaks the 1012.45 level on Monday then this
forecast would no longer be valid.
E
******************************************************************
This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso
Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the
use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed.
If you have received this email in error please notify the
sender.
******************************************************************
******************************************************************
This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso
Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the
use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed.
If you have received this email in error please notify the
sender.
******************************************************************
******************************************************************
This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso
Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the
use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed.
If you have received this email in error please notify the
sender.
******************************************************************
******************************************************************
This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso
Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the
use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed.
If you have received this email in error please notify the
sender.
******************************************************************
******************************************************************
This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso
Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the
use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed.
If you have received this email in error please notify the
sender.
******************************************************************
******************************************************************
This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso
Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the
use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed.
If you have received this email in error please notify the
sender.
******************************************************************
- ------_=_NextPart_001_01C21D79.9261DA90
Content-Type: text/html
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
<html xmlns:o=3D"urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" xmlns:w=3D"urn:sc=
hemas-microsoft-com:office:word" xmlns=3D"http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40">
<head>
<META HTTP-EQUIV=3D"Content-Type" CONTENT=3D"text/html; charset=3DUS-ASCII">
<meta name=3DProgId content=3DWord.Document>
<meta name=3DGenerator content=3D"Microsoft Word 9">
<meta name=3DOriginator content=3D"Microsoft Word 9">
<link rel=3DFile-List href=3D"cid:filelist.xml@01C21D4F.A8548B10">
<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
<o:DoNotRelyOnCSS/>
</o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:WordDocument>
<w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom>
<w:DocumentKind>DocumentEmail</w:DocumentKind>
<w:EnvelopeVis/>
<w:Compatibility>
<w:BreakWrappedTables/>
<w:SnapToGridInCell/>
<w:WrapTextWithPunct/>
<w:UseAsianBreakRules/>
</w:Compatibility>
<w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel>
<w:SpellingState>Clean</w:SpellingState>
<w:GrammarState>Clean</w:GrammarState>
</w:WordDocument>
</xml><![endif]-->
<style>
<!--
span.EMAILSTYLE18
{mso-style-noshow:yes;}
span.EMAILSTYLE19
{mso-style-noshow:yes;}
span.EMAILSTYLE20
{mso-style-noshow:yes;}
span.EMAILSTYLE21
{mso-style-noshow:yes;}
span.EMAILSTYLE22
{mso-style-noshow:yes;}
span.SPELLE
{mso-spl-e:yes;}
span.GRAME
{mso-gram-e:yes;}
/* Font Definitions */
@font-face
{font-family:Tahoma;
panose-1:2 11 6 4 3 5 4 4 2 4;
mso-font-charset:0;
mso-generic-font-family:swiss;
mso-font-pitch:variable;
mso-font-signature:553679495 -2147483648 8 0 66047 0;}
/* Style Definitions */
p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal
{mso-style-parent:"";
margin:0in;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";}
a:link, span.MsoHyperlink
{color:blue;
text-decoration:underline;
text-underline:single;}
a:visited, span.MsoHyperlinkFollowed
{color:purple;
text-decoration:underline;
text-underline:single;}
p.MsoAutoSig, li.MsoAutoSig, div.MsoAutoSig
{margin:0in;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";}
code
{mso-ascii-font-family:"Courier New";
mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-hansi-font-family:"Courier New";
mso-bidi-font-family:"Courier New";}
span.EmailStyle18
{mso-style-type:personal;
mso-ansi-font-size:10.0pt;
mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;
mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;
mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;
color:windowtext;}
span.EmailStyle19
{mso-style-type:personal;
mso-ansi-font-size:10.0pt;
mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;
mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;
mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;
color:navy;}
span.EmailStyle20
{mso-style-type:personal;
mso-ansi-font-size:10.0pt;
mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;
mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;
mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;
color:navy;}
span.EmailStyle21
{mso-style-type:personal;
mso-ansi-font-size:10.0pt;
mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;
mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;
mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;
color:navy;}
span.EmailStyle22
{mso-style-type:personal;
mso-ansi-font-size:10.0pt;
mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;
mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;
mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;
color:navy;}
span.EmailStyle23
{mso-style-type:personal-reply;
mso-ansi-font-size:10.0pt;
mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;
mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;
color:#993366;}
@page Section1
{size:8.5in 11.0in;
margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in;
mso-header-margin:.5in;
mso-footer-margin:.5in;
mso-paper-source:0;}
div.Section1
{page:Section1;}
- -->
</style>
</head>
<body lang=3DEN-US link=3Dblue vlink=3Dpurple style=3D'tab-interval:.5in'>
<div class=3DSection1>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle23><font size=3D2 color=3D"#99=
3366"
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font=
- -family:
Arial'>From what I see, today’s price action looks like the turn low =
I have
been expecting. A close tomorrow above today’s high is the signal I u=
sually
look for to confirm a turn.<o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle23><font size=3D2 color=3D"#99=
3366"
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font=
- -family:
Arial'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font><=
/span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle23><font size=3D2 color=3D"#99=
3366"
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font=
- -family:
Arial'>However, trading from this turn would be very risky. The sheer stren=
gth of
this down move puts this turn in jeopardy, while from my technical perspect=
ive
this low turn is set up very well, the overwhelming negative sentiment that=
is
currently in the market could easily negate this set-up.<o:p></o:p></span><=
/font></span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle23><font size=3D2 color=3D"#99=
3366"
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font=
- -family:
Arial'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font><=
/span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle23><font size=3D2 color=3D"#99=
3366"
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font=
- -family:
Arial'>Even if today proves out to be the low of the move, the upside appea=
rs
to be very limited.<o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle23><font size=3D2 color=3D"#99=
3366"
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font=
- -family:
Arial'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font><=
/span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle23><font size=3D2 color=3D"#99=
3366"
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font=
- -family:
Arial'>E<o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span class=3DEmailStyle23><font size=3D2 color=3D"#99=
3366"
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font=
- -family:
Arial'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font><=
/span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dblack
face=3DTahoma><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:blac=
k'>-----Original
Message-----<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>From:</span></b> Hill, Ernie <br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> Monday, June 24, 2002 =
9:34
PM<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b> 'canslim@lists.xmission.=
com'<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> RE: [CANSLIM] S&=
;P
index "M"</span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 face=3D"Time=
s New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p><=
/o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Today's price action
meets all my technical criteria for the termination of the current down mov=
e.
However, I believe we have a little further to go before the projected turn=
low
has been made.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'> <o:p></o:p></=
span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>While today's low h=
as
occurred within the turn low time window, if today is indeed the low it wou=
ld
mean that the turn came early in the window. Often sharp moves in the direc=
tion
of the dominate trend tend to terminate in the last half of the turn window,
and occasionally beyond the projected turn window. For this reason I am not
convinced that today was the end to the current short term move down. Even =
if
today does prove out to be the projected turn low the market is still likel=
y to
move back down toward the end of the current time window.<o:p></o:p></span>=
</font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'> <o:p></o:p></=
span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>At this point any a=
ttempt
to trade long would be too risky. I will wait out the remainder of this time
window before declaring a turn or projecting a new target for the next turn
high. Unless of course the market demands that I comment sooner.<o:p></o:p>=
</span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'> <o:p></o:p></=
span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>E<o:p></o:p></span>=
</font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'> <o:p></o:p></=
span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy=
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'> <o:p></o:p></=
span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dbla=
ck
face=3DTahoma><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:blac=
k'>-----Original
Message-----<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>From:</span></b> Hill, Ernie <br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> Saturday, June 15, 200=
2 6:01
PM<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b> 'canslim@lists.xmission.=
com'<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> RE:[CANSLIM] S&P
index "M"</span></font><font color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:b=
lack;
mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dbla=
ck
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:black'> =
;</span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>=
The next
significant low turn for the S&P should occur within four trading days =
of
6-26 with the turn most likely happening during the last half of the window
from 6-26 to 7-2. The target price range is 965 - 958. If the turn comes ea=
rly
in the window it is more likely to be in the high part of the range and if =
the
turn comes late in the window it is more likely to be in the low part of the
range.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>=
<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>=
E<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:2.0in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy
face=3DTahoma><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:navy=
'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:2.0in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dbla=
ck
face=3DTahoma><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:blac=
k'>-----Original
Message-----<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>From:</span></b> Hill, Ernie <br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> Tuesday, June 11, 2002=
10:10
PM<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b> 'canslim@lists.xmission.=
com'<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> RE: [CANSLIM] S&=
;P
index "M"</span></font><font color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:b=
lack;
mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:2.0in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dbla=
ck
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:black'> =
;</span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:2.0in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>=
Today's market
action all but confirms that Friday was no aberration, but was indeed a war=
ning
signal. I believe the high turn that I forecast for the time window of 6-10=
to
6-20 was made today and well short of the low target of 1048.41. Even if the
market should manage to make it up to 1048 over the course of the next few =
days
the risk is far greater than the potential reward.<o:p></o:p></span></font>=
</p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:2.0in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>=
<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:2.0in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>=
The
primary reason that I think this short term high turn has been made is beca=
use
the S&P has closed significantly below the target range of 1034-1027 th=
at I
had forecast for the low turn that I had anticipated in my post from 5-21. =
Also
in that post I had mentioned that there were two time windows that the low =
turn
I was looking for could be made. What has happened almost always occurs when
the market is in the midst of a strong trend. In this case a down trend. The
first and most likely time window for the turn occurs, but the next high tu=
rn
is made early in the window is often only one or two days up and is very we=
ak
with the market turning below target levels. When this happens the second t=
ime
window for the </span></font><u><font size=3D2 color=3Dred face=3DArial><sp=
an
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:red'>turn</span></font></=
u><font
size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-fam=
ily:Arial;
color:navy'> should be expected and the move is exaggerated. This means that
the low turn I had originally forecast to occur within four trading days of=
</span></font><u><font
size=3D2 color=3Dred face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-fami=
ly:Arial;
color:red'>6-4</span></font></u><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy face=3DArial><s=
pan
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'> has blown past its
target and should now occur within four trading days of 6-26. I haven't had
time yet to calculate the likely targets for this turn, but I suspect that =
this
down swing could challenge last Septembers lows before a meaningful move up=
can
be made.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:2.0in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>=
<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:2.0in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>=
I wanted
to get this post out tonight to warn those of you who give weight to my
analysis. If any of you are holding on to positions expecting the S&P to
reach 1048 per my analysis, the market has spoken, it ain't likely to happe=
n.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:2.0in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>=
<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:2.0in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>=
E<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:2.0in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dnavy
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>=
<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:2.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dbla=
ck
face=3DTahoma><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:blac=
k'>-----Original
Message-----<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>From:</span></b> Hill, Ernie <br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> Sunday, June 09, 2002 =
4:06
PM<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b> 'canslim@lists.xmission.=
com'<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> [CANSLIM] S&P i=
ndex
"M"</span></font><font color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;
mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:2.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dbla=
ck
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:black'> =
;</span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:2.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dbla=
ck
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>On Tu=
esday
the S&P index hit a low of 1030.49 right in the middle of the highest
probability target range and on the highest probability target day. The next
day it closed above the high of the previous day, signaling that a turn had
been made. Then the very next day Thursday the market dropped again hitting=
an
intra-day low of 1026.91 right at the bottom of my projected target range. =
All
was still well and within parameters. I fully expected Friday to close above
the high for Thursday and again signal that a turn had been made. But alas,=
all
was not well Friday!</span></font><font color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:=
black;
mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:2.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dbla=
ck
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:black'> =
;</span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:2.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dbla=
ck
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>First=
the
optimistic view. Sometimes these target levels can hold true based on closi=
ng
prices. This usually occurs when a market aberration causes the target to be
overrun, yet prices will still close at or near the target levels. This cou=
ld
have happened Friday with the market closing at 1027.53. If Friday was an
aberration then the intra-day low of 1012.45 will hold through the next low
turn.</span></font><font color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color=
- -alt:
windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:2.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dbla=
ck
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:black'> =
;</span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:2.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dbla=
ck
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>Now f=
or the
much grimmer forecast. If Friday was not an aberration then it is very poss=
ible
that the next turn low could break the 1012.45 level and possibly challenge
last September's lows.</span></font><font color=3Dblack><span style=3D'colo=
r:black;
mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:2.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dbla=
ck
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:black'> =
;</span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:2.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dbla=
ck
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>At th=
is point
the picture is very muddy we will just have to sit back and let the market =
tell
us where it is going to go.</span></font><font color=3Dblack><span
style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:2.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dbla=
ck
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:black'> =
;</span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:2.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dbla=
ck
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>Assum=
ing that
Friday was indeed the low point of the current down move (hopefully Monday =
will
give us a confirmation signal), then we can anticipate the next turn high to
occur within four trading days of 6-14. The most likely targets for this tu=
rn
would be a .382 retracement of the last move down which began on 5-17 at
1106.59 and ended on 6-7 at 1012.45 or a .618 retracement of the same move.
This would give us a target prices of 1048.41 for the .382 retracement and
1070.62. for the .618 retracement. Both of these targets carry approximately
the same probability rating.</span></font><font color=3Dblack><span
style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:2.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dbla=
ck
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:black'> =
;</span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:2.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dbla=
ck
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>In ei=
ther
case the next turn high will likely occur very soon and without much streng=
th
to the upside. Sorry Duke, it's not what I was hoping for either. For those=
of
you who are strong optimists there is a low probability target of 1104.60 w=
hich
if it occurs it would be late in the turn window.</span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:2.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dbla=
ck
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:black'> =
;</span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:2.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dbla=
ck
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>Of co=
urse if
the market breaks the 1012.45 level on Monday then this forecast would no
longer be valid.</span></font><font color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:blac=
k;
mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:2.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dbla=
ck
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:black'> =
;</span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:2.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dbla=
ck
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>E</sp=
an></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:2.5in'><font size=3D2 color=3Dbla=
ck
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'=
> </span></font><font
size=3D2 color=3Dblack face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-fa=
mily:Arial;
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:2.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dbla=
ck
face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Courier N=
ew";
color:black'><br>
<br>
<code><span style=3D'mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>*=
*****************************************************************</span></c=
ode><br>
<code><span style=3D'mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>T=
his
email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso </span></code><br>
<code><span style=3D'mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>C=
orporation
are confidential and intended solely for the </span></code><br>
<code><span style=3D'mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>u=
se of
the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. </span></code><br>
<code><span style=3D'mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>I=
f you
have received this email in error please notify the </span></code><br>
<code><span style=3D'mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>s=
ender.</span></code><br>
<code><span style=3D'mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>*=
*****************************************************************</span></c=
ode></span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:2.0in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dbla=
ck
face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Courier N=
ew";
color:black'><br>
<br>
<code><span style=3D'mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>*=
*****************************************************************</span></c=
ode><br>
<code><span style=3D'mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>T=
his
email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso </span></code><br>
<code><span style=3D'mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>C=
orporation
are confidential and intended solely for the </span></code><br>
<code><span style=3D'mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>u=
se of
the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. </span></code><br>
<code><span style=3D'mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>I=
f you
have received this email in error please notify the </span></code><br>
<code><span style=3D'mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>s=
ender.</span></code><br>
<code><span style=3D'mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>*=
*****************************************************************</span></c=
ode></span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:1.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dbla=
ck
face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Courier N=
ew";
color:black'><br>
<br>
<code><span style=3D'mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>*=
*****************************************************************</span></c=
ode><br>
<code><span style=3D'mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>T=
his
email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso </span></code><br>
<code><span style=3D'mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>C=
orporation
are confidential and intended solely for the </span></code><br>
<code><span style=3D'mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>u=
se of
the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. </span></code><br>
<code><span style=3D'mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>I=
f you
have received this email in error please notify the </span></code><br>
<code><span style=3D'mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>s=
ender.</span></code><br>
<code><span style=3D'mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>*=
*****************************************************************</span></c=
ode></span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dbla=
ck
face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Courier N=
ew";
color:black'><br>
<br>
<code><span style=3D'mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>*=
*****************************************************************</span></c=
ode><br>
<code><span style=3D'mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>T=
his
email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso </span></code><br>
<code><span style=3D'mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>C=
orporation
are confidential and intended solely for the </span></code><br>
<code><span style=3D'mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>u=
se of
the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. </span></code><br>
<code><span style=3D'mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>I=
f you
have received this email in error please notify the </span></code><br>
<code><span style=3D'mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>s=
ender.</span></code><br>
<code><span style=3D'mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>*=
*****************************************************************</span></c=
ode></span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 color=3Dblack
face=3D"Courier New"><span style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Courier N=
ew";
color:black'><br>
<br>
<code><span style=3D'mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>*=
*****************************************************************</span></c=
ode><br>
<code><span style=3D'mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>T=
his
email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso </span></code><br>
<code><span style=3D'mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>C=
orporation
are confidential and intended solely for the </span></code><br>
<code><span style=3D'mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>u=
se of
the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. </span></code><br>
<code><span style=3D'mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>I=
f you
have received this email in error please notify the </span></code><br>
<code><span style=3D'mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>s=
ender.</span></code><br>
<code><span style=3D'mso-ansi-font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt'>*=
*****************************************************************</span></c=
ode></span></font><font
color=3Dblack><span style=3D'color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<CODE><FONT SIZE=3D3><BR>
<BR>
******************************************************************<BR>
This email and any files transmitted with it from the ElPaso <BR>
Corporation are confidential and intended solely for the <BR>
use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. <BR>
If you have received this email in error please notify the <BR>
sender.<BR>
******************************************************************<BR>
</FONT></CODE></body>
</html>
- ------_=_NextPart_001_01C21D79.9261DA90--
- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
Next Article (by Subject): Re: [CANSLIM] Technical Anaylsis Book? "Patrick Wahl"
Previous Article (by Subject): Re: [CANSLIM] Banks "J. Lobatto"
Articles sorted by: [Date]
[Author]
[Subject]